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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 36.32 chg: +0.40 stop: 34.85

Today's move over the 36.00-36.25 region looks like a new bullish entry point.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Brookfield Homes - BHS - close: 46.63 chg: +0.53 stop: 42.95 

This is a surprise. The housing sector soared with a 4.5 percent gain on Wednesday yet BHS only added 1.1 percent. We would have expected BHS to perform better. Fortunately, it looks like traders are buying the late afternoon dip toward the $46 level. 
Our target is the $50 region. 

Picked on May 05 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 43.73 chg: -0.89 stop: 40.95

CMX stumbled into some profit taking today after gapping higher to hit another high. The move looks somewhat like a bearish engulfing candlestick but bulls where there to buy the dip near $43 and its simple 10-dma. 

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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First Bancorp - FBP - close: 41.23 chg: +0.59 stop: 38.49 

No change from our previous update on 05/16/05.

Picked on May 05 at $40.37
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 280 thousand

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Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 35.59 chg: +0.50 stop: 33.40 

No change from our previous updates. Today's bounce could be used as a new bullish entry point but if so we'd use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 1.48
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand

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Humana - HUM - close: 36.47 chg: +0.69 stop: 32.95

No change from our previous updates.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million 

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Motorola - MOT - close: 16.90 change: +0.48 stop: 15.75 *new*

It was a big day for shares of MOT. The stock added 2.9 percent on very strong volume. The move was partially fueled by news that the company has authorized a three-year $4 billion stock buy back program. We're raising our stop loss to $15.75. Our target is the $17.45-18.00 range. 

Picked on May 15 at $16.21
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 04/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.2 million 

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 35.68 change: +0.23 stop: 33.95

Ding! We have been triggered in this bullish play. Shares of YHOO broke out over resistance at the $36.00 level and hit our entry point at $36.05. The bad news is that the stock was unable to maintain its gains and shares closed back below the $36 level with volume coming in above average. This looks like a potential short-term top. Readers may want to step back to see if YHOO consolidates back toward the $35 level before initiating positions. We would definitely wait for another move over $36 before going long. More aggressive traders might consider a bounce from $35. In the news YHOO announced free phone calls with its Yahoo Messenger (instant messaging) service. 

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

Short Play Updates

A.S.V.Inc. - ASVI - close: 34.87 change: +0.57 stop: 35.31

We are still waiting for ASVI to trade under short-term support at the $34.00 level and hit our trigger at $33.99. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand

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Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.85 chg: +0.72 stop: 40.05 

No change from previous update on 05/15/05. As expected BLL is struggling with resistance near the $38.00 level.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

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Biomet - BMET - close: 38.76 chg: +0.91 stop: 39.01 

Red alert! The broad-based market rally has helped fuel a 2.4 percent gain in BMET. The stock is breaking out over technical resistance at its simple 50-dma and the top border of its descending channel. Almost every indicator is suggesting that BMET is reversing course. We strongly suggest that more conservative traders exit now to avoid further losses. We're leaving the play open only because the market looks short-term overbought and due for a pull back. 

Picked on May 10 at $37.45
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 03/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million 

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Liz Claiborne - LIZ - close: 38.03 change: +0.24 stop: 38.25

Bears should probably run for the exits here too. The market rally lifted LIZ and the stock is breaking out over the $38.00 level and its trendline of resistance dating back to the March high. We expect the stock to hit our stop loss tomorrow!

Picked on May 15 at $37.14
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Mylan Labs - MYL - close: 15.60 change: +0.10 stop: 16.51

No change from our previous update on 05/17/05. We do not believe the stock had any reaction to the press release out today about MYL's beta-blocker compound. 

Picked on May 16 at $15.85
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 05/12/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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UST Inc - UST - close: 43.54 change: -0.33 stop: 46.01

No change from our previous update on 05/15/05. UST's relative weakness today bodes well for the future.

Picked on May 10 at $44.12
Change since picked: - 0.58
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million 

Closed Long Plays

None

Closed Short Plays

Catalina Mktg - POS - close: 25.39 chg: +0.96 stop: 24.85 

This could be a short-squeeze in POS. The company reported earnings this morning that missed Wall Street's expectations by 9 cents. By all accounts the stock should have tanked. Shares did gap down and trade to $23.29 before bouncing. The sharp rebound quickly pushed POS through our stop loss at $24.85 and shares closed above technical resistance at its exponential 200-dma on volume several times the average. 

Picked on April 22 at $23.80
Change since picked: + 1.59
Earnings Date 05/18/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 468 thousand

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