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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 37.07 chg: +0.14 stop: 35.35 

ASN managed a new four-month closing high on Friday. We remain bullish on the stock. However, we're expecting a pull back in the major indices after last week's gains. We would expect ASN to pull back with the market. Look for shares of ASN to fill the gap from Thursday morning. That would put ASN in the 36.30-36.40 region. Traders can use the dip as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $38.50-39.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Brookfield Homes - BHS - close: 46.05 chg: -0.40 stop: 42.95 

The DJUSHB home construction index managed to breakout to new relative highs over resistance this past week. Unfortunately, BHS failed to follow suit. Of course BHS actually broke out a couple of weeks ago but the stock is struggling to mount any sort of follow through. Technical indicators are all starting to turn bearish. The major indices look a little tired and could pull back this week. We expect BHS to follow them lower. We'd like to see BHS hold support at the $45.00 level but we are now beginning to think that BHS may trade even lower like the $44 region. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting now and waiting for BHS to bottom again before buying a bounce. Currently BHS's P&F chart is bullish and points to a $65 target. Yet of BHS trades under the $43 level it will reverse the P&F chart into a sell signal. 

Picked on May 05 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 43.45 chg: -0.21 stop: 40.95

Bulls and bears continue to fight as CMX's two-day consolidation has narrowed considerably. Shares traded in a tight 25-cent range for most of Friday's session. Now that its upward momentum is slowing the technical oscillators are naturally beginning to turn south. We would look for CMX to pull back toward the $42.00 level. Traders can use a bounce from $42.00 as a new bullish entry point. CMX's P&F chart is currently in an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with a $47 target. Our target is the $47-48 range.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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First Bancorp - FBP - close: 40.45 chg: -0.36 stop: 38.49 

As expected FBP did trade lower toward the $40.00 level and its simple 40-dma. The question now is whether or not the banking indices, which broke out to the upside this past week, will continue higher or consolidate lower. If the banking indices turn lower then FBP may be in jeopardy of breaking support near $39.00, which is the lower range of its two-week sideways consolidation. We would not suggest new bullish positions at this time although a breakout over the $42 mark would do a lot to reaffirm the new upward trend for FBP. 

Picked on May 05 at $40.37
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 280 thousand

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Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 36.30 chg: +0.00 stop: 34.49*new*

Friday turned out to be a very neutral session with GHL unchanged for the day. The stock is relatively close to our target in the $37.00-38.00 range. Thus we are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We are going to raise the stop loss to $34.49. 

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 2.19
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand

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Humana - HUM - close: 36.30 chg: -0.24 stop: 32.95

HUM continues to trade near all-time highs and we remain bullish on the stock. However, traders can probably look for HUM to dip lower this week if the major averages consolidate last week's gains. We would watch for a drop into the $34-35 range. A bounce above the $34 level could be used as a new bullish entry point. Of course if HUM does dip that low the daily momentum oscillators, which are already fading, will probably slip into bearish signals. Readers can choose whether they prefer to buy the bounce or wait for HUM to make a new high over the $37 level. Our short-term target is the $40.00 region compared to the P&F chart, which points to a longer-term $70 target.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million 

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 36.33 change: -0.42 stop: 33.95

Both YHOO and the INX Internet index managed to breakout to new relative highs this past week. Our bullish play in YHOO was triggered when the stock traded above resistance at the $36.00 level. We're encouraged that YHOO only lost 42 cents on Friday after rival Google (GOOG) announced plans for personalized pages and more portal-like content similar to YHOO's. Tech stocks look a little overbought so we expect the NASDAQ and YHOO to drift lower this coming week. Readers can watch for a dip toward the $35.00 level as a new bullish entry point for YHOO although we'd probably wait for signs of a bounce before initiating new plays.

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

Short Play Updates

A.S.V.Inc. - ASVI - close: 34.44 change: -0.43 stop: 35.31

Friday proved to be an interesting session for ASVI. The stock continued to narrow its consolidation before finally breaking out to the upside in the last thirty minutes of trading. We remain untriggered and on the sidelines so we're not at risk. If ASVI continues higher we may close the play unopened. However, traders may want to keep an eye on ASVI for a failed rally under what should be overhead resistance in the $36-37 range. Now that the 50-dma has crossed under the 200-dma ASVI's downward trend should be firmly in place. Currently our trigger to short the stock is at $33.99. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand

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Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.09 chg: -0.11 stop: 39.05 *new*

BLL continues to display relative weakness. The recent failed rally near $38.00 and its simple 10-dma was (and still is) a new bearish entry point for traders. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop losses. We're going to lower ours to $39.05. Next week could be a good one for the bears. The major indices look short-term overbought and due for a pull back. This could spur BLL toward our target in the $35-34 range. 

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.91
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

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Biomet - BMET - close: 38.80 chg: +0.55 stop: 39.01 

Normally the lack of follow through on Thursday's bearish reversal would have us exiting this play. BMET has broken out above the top of its bearish channel so more conservative traders may want to exit this play anyway. We're keeping the play open on the expectation that the major averages will consolidate lower this coming week and that should be a drag on shares of BMET. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. 

Picked on May 10 at $37.45
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 03/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million 

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Mylan Labs - MYL - close: 16.13 change: +0.15 stop: 16.51

Double-check your stop loss! Our momentum play in MYL is in jeopardy of reversing on us. MYL has now put together three positive days in a row and Friday's gain put it back above the $16.00 level and its simple 10-dma. The stock does still have overhead resistance near $16.25 (and its 21-dma) but we would not suggest new bearish plays until MYL trade back below the $16 level. A move under Friday's low at $15.72 would look even better as an entry point. 

Picked on May 16 at $15.85
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 05/12/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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UST Inc - UST - close: 44.20 change: +0.05 stop: 46.01

UST's slow drift higher continues but this oversold "bounce" could be setting up for a more attractive bearish entry point. Readers may remember that the stock was hammered in late April on an earnings warning. Then after two weeks of consolidating above support at the $45.00 level the stock broke down again on big volume. The big decline from April has produced a P&F chart sell signal that points to a $31 target. We would watch for broken support at $45.00 to act as new overhead resistance. A failed rally under $45 could be used as a new entry point. If you prefer a move momentum-style entry then look for UST to trade under $43.50. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on May 10 at $44.12
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

Closed Long Plays

None

Closed Short Plays

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