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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 36.45 chg: +0.17 stop: 35.35

ASN continues to slowly consolidate higher. Unfortunately, we have to emphasize the word slowly. Shares have not seen the sort of rally we were expecting back in early May. We remain bullish on the stock but any sort of significant market pull back would put ASN in danger of hitting our stop loss. Now that shares have filled the gap from May 19th bullish traders may want to consider new positions but do so carefully. Our target remains the $38.50-39.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand


Brookfield Homes - BHS - close: 46.90 chg: -0.11 stop: 43.49*new*

The homebuilding sector continues to look strong, especially after Thursday's big Toll Brothers inspired rally. Meanwhile BHS is still consolidating with a bullish trend of higher lows. Unfortunately, the momentum indicators for BHS have stalled and some have already turned bearish. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target remains the $49.50-50.00 range. We are upping our stop loss toward the simple 50-dma with the new stop at $43.49.

Picked on May 05 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 thousand


Caremark - CMX - close: 44.21 chg: -0.04 stop: 40.95

Bullish traders need to go to yellow alert here with CMX. The stock gapped higher on Friday morning on word that the company may have come to settlement terms with the Feds over the business practices for one of the companies CMX has previously acquired. Yet the action in the stock price, with its quick sell-off, suggests a short-term top. Of course we've been expecting a pull back toward support near the $42.00 level so that's not so alarming. What is potentially alarming is a new announcement Friday afternoon that four states are alleging fraud against CMX for some of its Medicaid billing procedures. We didn't see any after hours trading in CMX but odds are that Monday could be a down day for the stock. We are not suggesting any new bullish positions. Let's wait and see if CMX dips toward the $42 level like we thought it might and look for a bounce.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million


General Electric - GE - close: 36.88 chg: -0.06 stop: 34.95

GE is one of new buy the dip plays we added earlier this past week. We really like the bullish breakout over resistance at $36.50 for GE. The move pushed the stock through what looks like the top of a three and a half month trading range. However, the major market averages all look short-term overbought and due for a minor correction. GE should follow (or lead) the pull back. We are counting on the market's tendency to over-react or overdo any move so we're looking for a pull back below the $36.00 mark. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger in the $36.00-35.50 range to go long the stock. Our target is the $38.50-39.00 range before GE's mid-July earnings report. As a reader you have the luxury of waiting to see how deep any dip will be. You do not have to immediately go long on a dip to $36.00. Consider being patient. Who knows GE might dip toward the 200-dma near $35.25 instead. More conservative traders can definitely wait to buy a bounce.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million


Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 36.69 chg: +0.59 stop: 34.99*new*

Almost there! GHL added 1.6 percent on Friday and hit an intraday high of $36.97. That was almost enough to hit our target range of $37.00-38.00. More conservative players may want to seriously consider exiting now. Monday could prove interesting as GHL either breaks out or reverses at the $37.00 level. This close to our target we are not suggesting new bullish positions. We are going to raise the stop loss to $34.99, just below the May 25th low.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 2.58
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand


Humana - HUM - close: 36.89 chg: +0.24 stop: 32.95

HUM continues to trade near its recent highs but we're not convinced that HUM won't correct with the major averages. The DJIA, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all look short-term overbought and due for a multi-day dip. We would much rather initiate new bullish positions in HUM on a pull back. This, of course, would probably send HUM's momentum indicators into bearish signals but the stock should find support near the $34.00 level. Wait for the dip! We're going to adjust our target to the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 26.07 chg: +0.17 stop: 24.60

Readers might be thinking that we missed the entry point on MSFT's recent dip toward the $25.50 level. While that is certainly a possibility we believe it's a stronger possibility that shares of MSFT will dip again. The NASAQ composite is now up 10 out of the last 11 sessions. This is an unsustainable pace. The GSO software index also looks a little extended. We would much rather try and catch a dip in shares of MSFT than buy what could be a short-term top. There is almost always another entry point down the road if we're patient. We are going to maintain a trigger to go long shares of MSFT on a dip into the $25.25-25.00 range. Our two-month target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million


Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.97 chg: +0.18 stop: 5.28*new*

We are certainly pleased with SIRI's relative strength. The stock added another 3.1 percent on Friday. Yet the rally stalled at the $6.00 mark, which is proving to be round-number resistance. That's okay. We're expecting SIRI to experience some profit taking when the NASDAQ composite index eventually consolidates. Readers can choose to buy a dip back toward the $5.80 level or we'd prefer to buy a dip into the $5.50-5.60 range. Meanwhile we are raising our stop loss to $5.28.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million


Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 37.27 change: +0.13 stop: 33.95

Normally we might consider a bullish breakout through the top of a five-day sideways consolidation as a new entry point to go long. Our biggest concern is the NASDAQ and how extended the index is. The NASDAQ composite is up 10 out of the last 11 sessions. Odds of a pull in technology stocks are growing so we hesitate to suggest new longs in YHOO here. We'd prefer to watch for another dip toward the $36.00 level and then buy the bounce. Our target is the $39.00 level.

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million

Short Play Updates

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.96 chg: +0.16 stop: 39.05

There has been little change in shares of BLL over the last few days. As we mentioned on Thursday the stock is consolidating under resistance at the $38.00 level but with a trend of higher lows, which is bullish. Everything seems to be pointing to a bullish breakout over the $38.00 level so we are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to significantly tighten their stop losses.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

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