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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 36.84 chg: -0.09 stop: 35.99 *new*

The rally in shares of ASN failed (again) in the $37.25 region. Now that the major averages look poised to a little consolidation we'd expect ASN to follow suit. Therefore we're not suggesting new bullish positions unless we see ASN bounce from the $36.25 level, which should be inline with its supporting trendline of higher lows. We plan to reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $35.99. Our target remains the $38.50-39.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand


Canon - CAJ - close: 54.44 change: -0.36 stop: 52.85

CAJ is off to a slow start following the bullish breakout in the last several days. The stock had been stuck in a wide channel between $51.00 and $54.50 the last five months but broke through the top of the channel (a.k.a. resistance) at the end of May. The move produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart that now points to a $71 target. We'd be happy with a move into the $58.00-59.00 range. Traders can choose to consider buying a bounce from the $54.00 level or look for CAJ to trade back over the $55.00 mark before initiating new long positions.

Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 157 thousand


Caremark - CMX - close: 44.65 chg: -0.30 stop: 41.95 *new*

Shares of CMX have been consistently drifting higher with a trend of higher lows following the bullish breakout over resistance at $42.00. While we are encouraged by the relative strength in the stock we'd hesitate to open new bullish positions. If the market pulls back a bit we'd like to see CMX retest old resistance at $42.00 as support. A bounce from $42 would be the preferred entry point for new longs. However, if CMX continues the current pattern of higher lows we'd look for shares to bounce from a test of the 21-dma near $43.65. Our target is a move into the $47.00-48.00 range. We are going to raise our stop loss to $41.95.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million


Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 29.15 change: -0.07 stop: 25.49

Our trade the channel play in GBX is doing okay. The stock displayed a lot of strength this past week and broke through its two-month trend of lower highs. Momentum oscillators like the MACD are bullish but we'd probably look for a dip before initiating new plays. Watch for a pull back toward the $28.00 region close to its simple 200-dma. A bounce there could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. It's not the top of the channel but we don't want to get too greedy.

Picked on June 01 at $28.67
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 06/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 227 thousand


General Electric - GE - close: 36.70 chg: -0.20 stop: 34.95

We remain bullish on stocks but before they can continue much higher odds are stocks could consolidate a bit lower. We like GE for its bullish breakout from a multi-month sideways consolidation but would prefer to buy the stock on a dip. Our suggestion is to go long GE on a pull back into the $36.00-35.50 range. If GE does pull back it could coincide with a test of technical support at its rising 200-dma (currently at 35.36). Keep in mind that you, the reader, do not need to immediately open new positions when GE trades into our entry range. Instead consider waiting to see when and where GE bounces first before opening long plays. If we are triggered we'll target a move into the $38.50-39.00 range before its mid-July earnings report. This target may be a bit too optimistic. The important point is to exit before the earnings report.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million


Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 35.48 chg: -0.28 stop: 34.99

We do not have anything new to report on for GHL. The stock continues to consolidate sideways between $35.00 an $37.00. Short-term traders might consider buying a bounce from $35.00 but our target is the $37.00-38.00 range. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 1.34
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand


Humana - HUM - close: 37.78 chg: +0.35 stop: 32.95

HUM continues to show great relative strength. The stock notched yet another new all-time high on Friday at $38.20. We've been suggesting that readers consider new bullish positions on a dip but HUM hasn't offered many dips lately. Right now we'd look for HUM to pull back toward the $36.50 region before considering new plays. Yet keep in mind that if the market suddenly sells off it wouldn't surprise us to see HUM pull back toward the $35.00 level, which as broken resistance should act as new support. We're going to raise our stop loss to $34.49. Our target remains the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.79 chg: -0.02 stop: 24.60

Software stocks helped lead the decline in the NASDAQ on Friday. The GSO software index lost 1.5 percent, putting the sector just behind the Internet stocks (-1.6 percent) and the Hardware stocks (-1.88 percent). MSFT tried to keep pace losing 1.39 percent and breaking down under what should have been support at the $25.50 level. That's okay though. We've been waiting for MSFT to pull back. Our plan is to go long the stock on a dip into the $25.25-25.00 range. It is true that Friday's decline doesn't look so hot with the MACD indicator rolling over into a new sell signal but the MACD has produced a couple of false signals over the last couple of months. We are still willing to go long if MSFT dips into our trigger range but you, as the reader, do not have to immediately open positions. Instead consider waiting to see where MSFT bounces first before initiating a bullish trade.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million


Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 22.10 change: +0.14 stop: 20.45

MVL continues to show relative strength with the stock producing another new relative high on Friday. Technically the breakout over the $22.00 level is bullish but we'd probably look for a dip back towards the $21.50 level before initiating new positions. With the market showing a little weakness it might continue next week. We're bullish on MVL as the stock could produce a multi-week ramp up ahead of its Fantastic Four movie opening on July 8th. The P&F chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal pointing to a $32.50 target. We are targeting a move into the $24.00-25.00 range.

Picked on June 01 at $21.86
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 911 thousand


Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 32.19 change: +0.19 stop: 29.99

We remain cautious on shares of NCX. The bullish breakout over its three-month down trend of lower highs is a positive but the action on Wednesday and Thursday looks like a short-term bearish reversal. We initially suggested readers consider waiting for a dip toward the $32.00 level but we didn't expect NCX to get there all in one day. Volume on Friday's bounce was very light so it doesn't offer us any help. Traders might want to warily consider new bullish positions here but with the broader market averages looking poised for more short-term weakness we'd probably rather sit on the sidelines in NCX before going long. The alternative would be to wait for shares to produce a momentum, breakout-type entry on a move past $33.10 and/or its 40-dma near $33.30.

Picked on June 01 at $33.03
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 660 thousand


Ship Fincl Intl - SFL - close: 20.05 change: -0.14 stop: 18.74

A big week for rising crude oil prices helped SFL turned in a strong week as well. The stock has broken through technical resistance at its 40 and 50-dma's in addition to round-number resistance at the $20.00 mark. We continue to target the $21.80-22.00 range but if the market does pull back next week SFL might see some profit taking too. Watch for a dip toward the $19.50 region where traders are likely to buy the dip.

Picked on May 31 at $19.34
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 05/31/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 344 thousand


Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 6.00 chg: +0.00 stop: 5.45

Shares of SIRI continue to show relative strength and the stock resisted any profit taking on Friday despite the market pull back. Thursday's intraday dip and rebound near its 100-dma helped reaffirm the short-term rising channel. Traders can watch for a dip back toward the $5.80-5.75 region and buy the bounce or look for a breakout over $6.10. Remember that we're targeting a move into the $6.50-6.75 range.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million


Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 37.92 change: -0.58 stop: 35.99

Internet stocks witnessed some of the worst profit taking during Friday's decline and YHOO was not immune. In the scheme of things this looks like a normal, natural pull back but it may not be over yet. We would watch for YHOO to dip towards its simple 10-dma near $37.25. If that fails then we'd look for YHOO to pull back into the $36.50-36.75 region or worse case the $36.00 level. At this time we would not suggest new bullish positions, especially with our target not that far away at the $39.00 level.

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 1.87
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million

Short Play Updates

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.55 chg: -0.06 stop: 38.15

BLL continues to consolidate sideways under resistance at the $38.00 level. The lack of follow through on the May 31st breakdown has us turning somewhat cautious again. More conservative traders may want to wait for BLL to trade under 37.35 before initiating new short positions. Given what looks like the beginning of a pull back in the broader indices we'd still be willing to short BLL under the $38.00 level. Our target is the $35.00-34.00 range.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

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