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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 37.91 chg: +0.65 stop: 36.26 *new*

Almost made it! ASN surged with the market rally today and hit an intraday high of $38.23. That's not quite enough to hit our target range of $38.50-39.00. We are encouraged that ASN managed to hold to most of its gains unlike the broader indices. However, the stock looks poised to pull back tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting now for a gain. We would expect ASN to pull back toward the $37.00 region on any market decline. We're going to raise our stop loss to break even at $36.26.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 1.65
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Canon - CAJ - close: 54.80 change: +0.03 stop: 52.85

There is little change in shares of CAJ. The outlook remains bullish but traders will need to be patient. We see no changes from our weekend update.

Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 157 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 45.14 chg: -0.51 stop: 41.95

CMX almost hit our target today. The stock hit an intraday high of $46.83 but our target is the $47.00-48.00 range. Shares immediately began to sell-off producing a "failed rally" pattern. This would suggest that CMX may be poised to see more profit taking tomorrow. At this time we'd look for shares to pull back toward the $44.00 level. If the broader market indices produce any sort of sharp decline we'd look for CMX to dip even lower.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 1.84
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 28.97 change: -0.06 stop: 25.49

We don't see any change here in GBX. The stock has been consolidating sideways the last couple of sessions. This leads us to believe that we will see GBX pull back before it moves higher. Traders can watch for a dip into the $27.50-28.00 region as a new bullish entry point although we'd probably wait for the bounce to begin before initiating plays.

Picked on June 01 at $28.67
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 06/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 227 thousand

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General Electric - GE - close: 36.84 chg: +0.23 stop: 34.95

Thus far we remain on the sidelines untriggered in GE. The stock rallied with the markets today but it also rolled over producing a "failed rally" pattern. Odds are good the stock will retrace back to the $36.50 level. We suspect GE could dip even deeper than that and that's why our suggested entry point is a decline into the $36.00-35.50 range. If need be we'll adjust our entry but for now we're happy to wait and watch.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million


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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 34.64 change: +0.60 stop: 30.95

GGC popped higher with the markets this morning but GGC was unable to hold on to its gains. We remain bullish on the stock but traders can choose their entry point. One would be to look for a dip toward the $33.00 region. The other would be a more momentum-style entry point on a push past today's high near $35.40. At this time we'd prefer to see a dip.

Picked on June 05 at $34.33
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

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Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 36.43 chg: +0.68 stop: 34.99

GHL made a run for the $37.00 level but the rally failed. No change from our previous update on 06/05/05.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 2.32
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand

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Humana - HUM - close: 38.17 chg: -0.04 stop: 33.99 *new*

HUM produced another new high again today but the rally failed and we'd look for shares to pull back toward the $36.50-36.75 region. If the broader indices decline much more HUM is likely to follow. The stock should have stronger support near the $35.00 level. Don't rush to initiate new plays here. We're going to raise our stop loss to $33.99.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 1.84
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.51 chg: +0.14 stop: 24.60

MSFT helped lead the rally in tech stocks this morning but like the NASDAQ the rally in MSFT failed. We remain on the sidelines waiting for MSFT to pull back toward our entry point in the $25.25-25.00 range.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million

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Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 21.57 change: +0.01 stop: 20.45

No change from our previous update on 06/05/05.

Picked on June 01 at $21.86
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 911 thousand

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Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 31.31 change: -0.12 stop: 29.99

As expected NCX is still showing weakness. The stock has some minor support in the $30.50-31.00 range but we are not suggesting new bullish plays at this time.

Picked on June 01 at $33.03
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 660 thousand

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Ship Fincl Intl - SFL - close: 19.50 change: -0.50 stop: 18.95 *new*

SFL is experiencing some profit taking today and the stock lost 2.5 percent to close near its simple 50-dma. The next level of support is probably $19.25 and then $19.00. We're going to raise our stop loss a bit to $18.95.

Picked on May 31 at $19.34
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 05/31/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 344 thousand

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.84 chg: -0.05 stop: 5.45

There is little change in shares of SIRI although momentum definitely appears to be slowing. We'd like to see a bounce in the $5.75 region but if the market declines much more SIRI is likely to test the $5.50 level as support. Be patient when considering new bullish positions.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 37.44 change: -1.08 stop: 35.99

Uh-oh! Conservative traders may want to abandon ship here. YHOO traded higher at the open and hit an intraday high of $38.95. That's 5-cents away from our $39.00 target but the rally failed and shares lost 2.8 percent on heavy volume. More importantly today's session produced a bearish engulfing candlestick, which is normally interpreted as a bearish reversal pattern. We would expect YHOO to pull back toward the $36.50-36.00 range before attempting to move higher.

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million
 

Short Play Updates

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.59 chg: -0.21 stop: 38.15

BLL traded higher this morning and broke through the $38.00 level but only hit a high of $38.08. BLL's strength quickly failed and the move looks like a small "failed rally" pattern. Volume on the session was pretty strong. This might be a new bearish entry point but we'll stick to our previous comments about waiting for a new relative low under $37.35 before initiating new short plays.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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