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Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 37.93 chg: -0.07 stop: 36.26 

ASN turned in a strong week and remains poised to make a run into our target range of $38.50-39.00. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. 

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 1.67
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Canon - CAJ - close: 54.18 change: -0.48 stop: 52.85

CAJ is producing even more volatility. The stock gapped lower to open at $53.66 on Friday morning before quickly bouncing back over the $54.00 level. There is a crowd of moving averages between here and the $52.50 level, which should offer some technical support for the stock. Traders not willing to endure this morning volatility may want to avoid this play. We would wait for another move back over the $55.00 level before considering new bullish positions. It is worth noting that today's decline did push the MACD into a new sell signal. Our target is the $58-59 range.

Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 157 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 43.30 chg: -1.10 stop: 41.95 

We have been warning readers to watch out for a potential dip back toward the $42.00-42.50 region. Friday's decline under its four-week trendline of short-term support certainly suggests that CMX is headed lower. We would not suggest new bullish positions at this time. Wait for a rebound to appear. 

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 28.60 change: +0.28 stop: 25.49

GBX tried to bounce from its 200-dma with a pop higher on Friday morning but the rally didn't last and stock appears to be forming a new trading range between $28.00 and $29.50. We do have a very wide stop loss near the May lows but if GBX trades under $28.00 or $27.50 we're going to turn defensive on this play. Watch for another bounce before considering new positions. Our strategy here is trying to play a bounce from the bottom of its wide sideways channel and GBX may turn lower to retest the bottom of this channel again.

Picked on June 01 at $28.67
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 06/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 227 thousand

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General Electric - GE - close: 36.63 chg: -0.16 stop: 34.95

GE is slowly getting closer to our suggested entry point but thus far we remain on the sidelines. Our plan is to go long the stock on a dip into the $36.00-35.50 range. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million 

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 34.90 change: +0.82 stop: 30.95

GGC out performed the broader markets on Friday and still looks poised to trade higher if shares can push past its simple 40-dma. We like the stock after it broke out from its three-month descending channel, which happened to coincide with a bounce from support on its Point & Figure chart. It is worth noting that volume has been pretty light the last few days. If the market declines next week watch GGC for a dip back toward the $33.00 region. We are using a wide stop loss and more conservative traders may want to consider something tighter. Our target is the $38.50-39.50 range. 

Picked on June 05 at $34.33
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 58.38 change: -0.06 stop: 55.90

XOM is a new bullish candidate we added to the newsletter on Thursday night. We don't see any change following Friday's session. A reprint of the original play follows: 

The oil sector indices have broken through resistance at the top of their descending channels thanks to strength in crude oil and a bullish breakout in oil titan XOM. Now that the summer driving season is almost upon us the oil sector could be poised for another leg higher. The markets don't seem too concerned over next week's OPEC meeting so we'll use XOM's rally today as a new bullish entry point. It is true that XOM's P&F chart is currently bearish and that makes this play a bit more aggressive than normal. However, XOM's recent strength has pushed the stock above technical resistance at its 50-dma and the 100-dma. We're willing to go long at current levels but you the reader can choose to wait for a possible dip back toward $57 and buy a bounce or wait for XOM to push past minor resistance near $58.50 (or even the $60.00 mark). We are targeting a move into the $63.00-64.00 range. We will not hold over XOM's late July earnings report.

Picked on June 09 at $58.44
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

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Humana - HUM - close: 38.15 chg: -0.41 stop: 34.99 

HUM managed to tag yet another new high on Friday morning but the stock was unable to maintain its gains. HUM came within 42 cents of hitting our target in the $39.75-40.00 range. Momentum is definitely slowing down here but then again the market indices have been churning sideways lately. We hesitate to suggest new plays here and the stock looks like it could drift back toward the $37.00 level pretty easily. 

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 1.82
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million 

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.43 chg: -0.08 stop: 24.60

No change here either. We're still waiting for MSFT to pull back into the $25.25-25.00 range before going long the stock. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million 

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Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 21.23 change: -0.05 stop: 20.45

Friday's session was pretty ho-hum for MVL. The stock traded sideways in a narrow range. Bulls can be disappointed that there was no follow through on Thursday's intraday bounce. Short-term technicals are negative and that makes us cautious here. Consider waiting for MVL to trade back over $21.50 or even $22.00 before initiating new bullish positions. MVL has less than one month before its next movie, the Fantastic Four, hits theaters. Our target is the $24.00-25.00 range. 

Picked on June 01 at $21.86
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 911 thousand

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Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 30.69 change: +0.18 stop: 29.99

We remain very cautious on NCX at this time. The stock's late May breakout through its three-month trendline of resistance has reversed course. Shares have now drifted back toward round-number support near the $30.00 level. Technical oscillators are naturally bearish but a couple are starting to look oversold. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We'll wait for another push past the $33 level although more aggressive traders may want to consider new longs on a move past $32.00 or its 40-dma currently near $32.50. 

Picked on June 01 at $33.03
Change since picked: - 2.34
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 660 thousand

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.65 chg: -0.11 stop: 5.45 

We have bad news. After three weeks we're right back where we started with SIRI. Momentum has stalled. SIRI's MACD has produced a new sell signal. Plus, the stock has broken down below its five-week trendline of support. We are seriously considering an early exit here to avoid this play turning into a loss. We're going to hold on for another day and re-evaluate a potential exit on Monday. The next level of support looks like the $5.50 mark. 

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million 

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 36.81 change: -0.64 stop: 35.99 

Friday's 1.7 percent decline erased all of Thursday's bounce. The action this past week does not look very promising and all of the stock's technical indicators look negative. We are not suggesting new bullish plays at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early to avoid any losses. We are expecting YHOO to trade back toward support in the $36.30-36.00 range before any attempt at a bounce higher. 

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

Short Play Updates

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.48 chg: -0.05 stop: 38.15 

Once again BLL has produced a failed rally at overhead resistance near the $38.00 level. This looks like a new bearish entry point but we suggest waiting for confirmation with a decline under the $37.30 or $37.25 level before initiating new bearish plays. Our target is the $35.00-34.00 range. 

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.44
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

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ManTech Intl - MANT - close: 28.37 change: -0.76 stop: 30.05

An analyst downgrade helped push MANT lower on Friday morning but bulls bought the dip near $27.35 and the stock closed back above the $28.00 level. We initially added this play as a short-term bearish candidate following the bearish technical reversal on June 7th. There has been little follow through and the stock has been churning sideways. We're longer-term bullish on MANT but would like to see the stock retest the $25.00-25.50 range as support before considering bullish plays. Only aggressive traders may want to consider MANT as a temporary short play. We're not suggesting new plays at this time unless MANT produces another failed rally under $29.25. 

Picked on June 07 at $28.42
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 08/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

Closed Long Plays

None

Closed Short Plays

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