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Long Play Updates

Amer. Home Mtg Invest. - AHM - cls: 35.32 chg: -0.74 stop: 34.95

It's been pretty ugly in the market the last two days. Friday's market sell-off pulled AHM through the bottom of its three-week trading range. The breakdown below support near $35.50 could spell bad news for AHM. We do see a late afternoon bounce on Friday after AHM hit its 21-dma and the $35.00 level so we're not quite willing to give up yet on AHM but we're not suggesting new bullish positions either. 

Picked on June 19 at $36.34
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 445 thousand

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CB Rich. Ellis Grp - CBG - close: 42.35 chg: +1.19 stop: 38.49

There's no weakness here. CBG added 2.89 percent on volume almost four times the average to close at a new all-time high on Friday. We remain bullish and continue to target the $44.50-45.00 range. 

Picked on June 20 at $41.40
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 466 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 43.12 chg: -0.34 stop: 42.45 

CMX is dangerously close to breaking down under support at the $43.00 level. There is probably additional support at its 50-dma near $42.56 but that's too close for comfort with our stop loss at $42.45. We are not suggesting new plays here and suggest that more conservative traders exit now to avoid further losses. 

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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Deckers Outdoor - DECK - cls: 24.99 chg: -0.19 stop: 23.75

DECK held up pretty well on Friday considering the market's decline. Shares of DECK are oscillating around round-number support/resistance at the $25.00 level. The stock also has some technical support at its 50-dma near $24.43. We remain bullish on the stock given the breakout three sessions ago but considering the current market environment readers may want to wait for DECK to push back above the $25.50 level before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $29.50-30.00 range but we do not plan on holding over DECK's July earnings report.

Picked on June 22 at $25.88
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 753 thousand

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 58.15 change: -0.87 stop: 56.99 

Crude oil may be climbing but it's not helping shares of XOM lately. The stock lost another 1.47 percent and broke down below its simple 100-dma on Friday. We're not that surprised. We've been suggesting to readers to watch for a dip into the $58.50-58.00 region and that's what we got. XOM's decline may have been partially fueled by news that the company will take a $200 million charge in the second quarter after the Supreme court ruled against it in a service station litigation case. Yet when you consider that XOM rakes in more than $280 billion a year this $200 million charge doesn't look like much. We are cautious on the stock. If XOM breaks down under the $58.00 level we would probably suggest that more conservative traders exit the stock. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on June 09 at $58.44
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

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M/I Homes Inc - MHO - close: 51.55 chg: -1.25 stop: 50.98 

Both MHO and housing sector were hit pretty good on Friday as traders rushed to lock in profits. Both MHO and the DJUSHB index have now produced new MACD sell signals. Plus, both have broken down through their 10-dma and 21-dma's. Overall the picture doesn't look very healthy here, at least short-term. More conservative traders may want to exit now to avoid or minimize any losses. We're going to keep the play open on the chance that the markets and MHO will produce an oversold bounce on Monday. We're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on June 14 at $50.98
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 143 thousand

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.96 chg: +0.08 stop: 5.59 

SIRI displayed some relative strength on Friday with a rally up to resistance at $6.10. Unfortunately, SIRI couldn't breakout and began to roll over again late Friday afternoon. We remain optimistic given Friday's gain but we're not suggesting new bullish plays at this time. Our target remains the $6.50 level. We do not plan on holding past SIRI's July earnings report.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million 

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Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 22.15 change: -0.62 stop: 21.25 

There are no surprises here. We warned readers to look for a dip back toward the simple 10-dma near the $22.00 level and that's what SOHU did on Friday. The test now is whether or not traders will buy the dip. Our more conservative readers may want to tighten their stop to protect a small profit. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $24.00 level. We do not plan on holding over the July earnings report.

Picked on June 13 at $21.25
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 924 thousand

Short Play Updates

Rogers Corp - ROG - close: 40.35 change: -0.80 stop: 43.25 *new*

Shares of ROG continue to turn lower. The stock lost 1.9 percent on Friday and broke down below its 100-dma. The selling actually hit $39.71 before ROG managed a bounce late Friday afternoon. We warned readers that the $40.00 level was the next obstacle for the bears. We would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce back toward the $41.00 level or better before ROG turned lower again. Our target is the 50-dma, which is currently at $39.11. We are lowering our stop loss to $43.25.

Picked on June 20 at $42.40
Change since picked: - 2.05
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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