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Long Play Updates

Black Hills - BKH - close: 37.74 change: +0.32 stop: 36.85

The UTY utilities index has bounced right back toward its all-time highs on Friday. Shares of BKH followed suit and bounced back toward the top of its trading range near the $38 level. We remain on the sidelines as we are suggesting a trigger at $38.20 to initiate long positions. More aggressive players might want to consider buying this bounce. We did notice that volume was very strong on Friday's rebound at more than double the norm. It is also encouraging to see the MACD indicator nearing a new buy signal.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/05/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 232 thousand


Berry Petrol. - BRY - close: 57.71 change: +0.89 stop: 52.95*new*

We have good news on BRY. The stock displayed some great relative strength on Friday. Many of the oil stocks hit some profit taking after crude oil fell under $60.00 a barrel. Plus, an analyst firm started coverage on BRY with a "hold" on Friday. Despite these conditions BRY added 1.56 percent on volume above the norm. The stock looks poised to breakout over the $58.00 level soon. We are raising our stop loss to $52.95. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range.

Picked on July 03 at $55.23
Change since picked: + 2.48
Earnings Date 08/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 192 thousand


Cameco - CCJ - close: 45.11 chg: -0.61 stop: 41.47

The action in CCJ on Friday was disappointing. The stock under performed the market with a 1.3 percent decline. This may suggest there is still more consolidation ahead. Don't be surprised to see CCJ pull back toward the $44.00 level or even $43.50 before bouncing again. We would be willing to buy a bounce at either level but would prefer to see CCJ bounce from the $45 mark. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range and we plan to exit before the company's late July earnings report.

Picked on June 27 at $44.14
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 989 thousand


Caremark - CMX - close: 43.47 chg: -0.41 stop: 42.85

This is crunch time for CMX. The stock has pulled back toward its simple 50-dma and near the bottom of its $45.00-43.00 trading range. If we don't see a bounce soon then odds are we'll be stopped out. Considering that CMX failed to participate in the market's rally on Friday it may be prudent to exit now to avoid further losses. We're not suggesting new plays. Believe it or not, the P&F chart, which tends to weed out a lot of daily noise, is still bullish and points to a $47.50 target.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million


Deckers Outdoor - DECK - cls: 25.81 chg: +0.54 stop: 23.95

After two weeks of consolidation above the $24.00 level maybe DECK is finally ready to begin the next leg higher. The stock produced a bullish engulfing candlestick on Thursday and shares added another 2.1 percent on Friday, which confirmed the breakout over short-term resistance at the $25.20 level. It's worth noting that DECK has huge short interest at more than 38% of its 10.4 million share float. The opportunity for a short squeeze is very strong, especially if the market's produce any kind of follow through higher on Monday. Our target is the $29.50-30.00 range.

Picked on June 22 at $25.88
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 753 thousand


Diodes Inc. - DIOD - close: 33.48 change: +0.48 stop: 30.45

Our aggressive long play in semiconductor stock DIOD is thus far paying off. The stock is up four days in a row and its MACD indicator is back in a buy signal. Our biggest concerns now are resistance near the $34.00 level and resistance for the SOX semiconductor index near the 450 level. We doubt that DIOD will be able to breakout over 34.00 if the SOX fails to push past the 450 level. Therefore more conservative traders may want to take some profits off the table as DIOD nears the $34 region. We're actually targeting the $36.50 mark but plan to exit before DIOD's late July earnings report.

Picked on July 05 at $32.48
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 249 thousand


Forest Oil - FST - close: 44.00 change: +0.01 stop: 41.25

Energy stocks hit some profit taking on Friday after crude oil fell below $60.00 a barrel. FST is more of a natural gas stock but it too failed to rally with the broader market. We remain bullish but only suggest new positions if FST can trade over the $44.15 level. Currently the P&F chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal that points to a $63 target. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the $45.00 level. We're targeting a move into the $47.50-48.00 range.

Picked on July 05 at $44.15
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 790 thousand


GulfMark Offshore - GMRK - close: 28.37 chg: -0.28 stop: 26.49

GMRK is a new bullish candidate from the Thursday night newsletter. We don't see any changes so we're reprinting the Thursday play description. If the $28.00 level fails watch for the simple 10-dma near $27.50 to act as the next level of support.

Thursday's play description: GMRK is another way to play the strength in the oil sector. They focus on oil well services with their offshore support vessels. We noted GMRK on Tuesday when the stock broke out over resistance at the $28.00 level to hit new eight-year highs. Normally we don't like to play a stock that has such low average volume but we like the bullish breakout and the bullish P&F chart that points to a $44 target. We're going to suggest longs with the stock above $28.00 and target a move to the $31.50-32.00 range although we will plan to exit before its August 1st earnings report.

Picked on July 07 at $28.65
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 92 thousand

Short Play Updates

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 34.74 chg: +0.78 stop: 34.81

Heads up! It looks like it's time to abandon ship here. Tech stocks lead the rally higher on Friday and AMZN out performed many of its peers in the Internet sector. More importantly AMZN broke through resistance in the $34.50 region and its simple 50-dma. We expect to be stopped out at $34.81 on Monday morning.

Picked on June 29 at $33.35
Change since picked: + 1.48
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million


Sina.com - SINA - close: 27.40 change: +0.16 stop: 29.31

So far so good. Friday's rally would have been a real opportunity to scare the shorts in SINA but that did not appear to happen. The stock remains short-term oversold and due for a bounce. That's why we're watching for a failed rally near the $28.00 level or its simple 10-dma (27.92). A failed rally there could be used as a new bearish entry point. We continue to target the $25.50-25.75 range. The P&F chart remains bearish and points to a $2.00 target. We plan to exit ahead of SINA's late July earnings report.

Picked on June 30 at $27.90
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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