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Long Play Updates

Kerzner Intl - KZL - close: 59.75 chg: -1.25 stop: 57.99

Friday was not a great day for KZL. The stock completely erased Thursday's gains and closed back under the $60.00 level. There is still hope the 100-dma will act as support but we've been saying to watch the $59.00 level for the last week. The biggest risk here is the unknown earnings date. The best data suggests a report between August 1st and August 8th. We suspect it will be August 3rd. If we don't hear something soon we may exit early on Tuesday just to be safe. Thus, we're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on July 22 at $61.01
Change since picked: - 1.26
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 154 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 47.95 chg: +2.08 stop: 49.01

Wow! That was certainly unexpected. ASVI out performed the markets on Friday with a 4.5 percent rebound. We need to immediately turn defensive and we are not suggesting new plays at this time. Only if ASVI turns lower and trades under the $46.00 level would we consider new short positions. A reprint of our Thursday night play description follows:

ASVI managed to beat Wall Street's earnings estimates by a penny today but that failed to inspire investors who "sold the news". After the stock's impressive three-month rally we believe that today's earnings report has sparked the beginning of a consolidation as traders lock in profits. The initial dip this morning was bought but buyers could not power the stock higher than the $47.00 level, which had been recent support. This is typical as broken support tends to become resistance. We view this as a failed rally and combined with the new MACD sell signal it looks like an entry point for shorts. We are going to target the 200-dma but we'll set a target range of $40.50-40.00 to begin with. We are suggesting shorts here under $46.00 but more conservative traders may want to see some confirmation and wait for a decline under the $45.00 level.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 2.08
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 12.58 change: +0.02 stop: 13.41

We do not have much new to report on for ATYT. The stock continues to under perform the market and its peers in the semiconductor sector. Thursday's decline looked like another entry point for bears and Friday hasn't changed that. The technical indicators are bearish as is the P&F chart, which points to an $11.50 target. We agree. Our target is the $11.50-11.20 range.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.35 chg: -0.42 stop: 46.25

BUD is a new bearish candidate from the Thursday night newsletter. We see no changes from our original play description so we're reposting it here:

Investors did not respond well to BUD's earnings report on July 27th and the stock broke down to new 2 1/2 year lows. Shares had already been in a downtrend for months and this just seemed to confirm its direction. Today's oversold bounce failed near its previous lows in what looks like a perfect failed rally entry point for new shorts. Now BUD does not move very fast but we're going to aim for the $40.25-40.00 range with a ten to twelve week time frame. If the major indices begin to consolidate between now and then we might get lucky and see BUD decline more quickly. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $35 price target.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.36 chg: -0.43 stop: 29.01

After a couple of false starts it looks like IGT is finally ready to begin its next leg lower. The stock broke down through multiple levels of support on July 21st and we believe the stock could hit its April lows. The P&F chart points to a $13.00 target. We're aiming for the $24.50-24.00 range. Friday's decline back under the simple 100-dma looks like another bearish entry point.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.99 chg: +0.02 stop: 25.61

Networking stock JNPR still looks poised to set new relative lows. The stock broke down under multiple levels of support after producing a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern. The fact that the NASDAQ is overbought and testing resistance near 2200 only makes this play in JNPR that much more attractive. If the NASDAQ turns lower than JNPR could accelerate to the downside. We would consider new shorts here under $24.00 but it might be a good idea to wait for another decline under $23.90 before initiating positions. Our target is the $21.50-21.00 range. One of the biggest risk for this play is larger rival CSCO's earnings report on August 9th. A surprisingly positive earnings report from CSCO could scare the shorts and inspire the buyers here in JNPR.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 45.45 chg: +0.05 stop: 48.01

RCL managed a minor oversold bounce on Friday morning but it failed under the $46.00 level. The continued weakness bodes well for our short play. If you missed our early updates investors "sold the news" after RCL's earnings report and the stock broke down through multiple levels of support (50-dma, 200-dma, exponential 200-dma, the 100-dma and its three-month trend line of higher lows. We are targeting the $41.25-41.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Sina.com - SINA - close: 27.81 change: +0.06 stop: 28.51

Time is almost up for our SINA play. The company is due to report earnings on Wednesday, August 3rd so we plan to exit on Tuesday after the close to avoid any surprises. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on June 30 at $27.90
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 49.67 chg: +0.19 stop: 52.01

We do not have much new to report on for TRI. Investors reacted negatively to TRI's earnings report on Monday and shares produced a big bearish engulfing candlestick while also breaking support. Since then the stock has been stuck under round-number support/resistance at the $50.00 mark. We would open new shorts with TRI under $50.00 but more conservative traders may want to see more confirmation with a decline under $49.00 before going short. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 32.16 chg: -0.31 stop: 28.99

We are choosing to close STLD as a potential candidate. Readers can still keep an eye on the stock for a dip back toward support near $30.00. Since the stock never hit our entry point it has been closed as unopened.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Vital Images - VTAL - close: 19.56 change: +0.06 stop: 17.99

VTAL showed a little bit of volatility on Friday with a dip toward the $19.00 level but bulls bought the dip. We are closing the play per our previous suggestions to avoid the company's earnings report next week expected on August 2nd.

Picked on July 19 at $18.93
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 08/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 107 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

NS Group - NSS - close: 42.45 change: +0.45 stop: 40.01

NSS continues to display incredible relative strength. While our strategy to wait for a decline under Tuesday's low may still work we're choosing to close this as a potential play and look elsewhere. The play is closed as unopened.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 353 thousand
 

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