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Long Play Updates

LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 34.58 chg: -0.07 stop: 32.99

Shares of ERICY traded in a pretty narrow range on Friday but the intraday trend looks bearish. We suspect that European markets will turn lower on Monday following the U.S. stocks' declines on Friday. That in turn will pressure shares of ERICY from both sides of the Atlantic. Not to fear though we would watch for a dip toward the $34.00-33.50 levels as a potential entry point but be sure to wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating new positions.

Picked on August 03 at $35.19
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million


Kerzner Intl - KZL - close: 59.70 chg: -0.60 stop: 58.99

Time is almost up! KZL is due to report earnings on Tuesday so we plan to exit on Monday afternoon at the closing bell. Friday's decline under the $60.00 level doesn't bode well for KZL anyway but the stock does have a host of moving averages below it to act as technical support.

Picked on July 22 at $61.01
Change since picked: - 1.31
Earnings Date 08/09/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 154 thousand

Short Play Updates

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 27.10 change: +0.07 stop: 30.01

Okay, here's the plan with ADBE. There new trend does indeed appear to be down. We are going to suggest a trigger to short the stock in the $28.00-28.50 range. If we are triggered we'll adjust the stop loss lower. Our target will be the $25.50-25.00 region, which should line up with its long-term trendline of support (see weekly chart).

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.8 million


Air T, Inc. - AIRT - close: 13.80 change: -0.19 stop: 15.01

We have interesting news to report on for AIRT. The company reported its Q1 earnings after the bell on Friday. We were not expecting earnings otherwise we would not have held over the report. Yet this time the earnings news may play into our favor. AIRT reported earnings of 10 cents a share compared to 20-cents a share a year ago. This sent the stock lower in after hours markets. If this sentiment carries over into Monday we would probably look for AIRT to gap down. Our target is the January lows in the 12.10-12.00 range.

Picked on August 03 at $13.84
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 06/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 289 thousand


A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 46.50 chg: -1.52 stop: 49.01

ASVI has broken its up trend again but once again there has been an rebound off the lows. We remain bearish on the stock and expect it to see some profit taking. The decline under $47.50 and $47.00 looks like a new bearish entry point for shorts. We are going to adjust our target to the $41.00-40.00 range to take into account technical support at its simple 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to target the 50-dma just north of $42.00.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand


ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 12.48 change: -0.07 stop: 13.26*new*

ATYT hit another new relative low on Friday but got a bounce midday after an analyst reiterated their buy rating on the stock. The trend and technicals remain bearish so we continue to target the $11.50-11.20 range but we have chosen to lower the stop loss to $13.26.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million


Biogen Idec - BIIB - close: 38.12 chg: -1.36 stop: 40.01

If you took our alternative, aggressive trader's entry point under $39.00 then you're probably looking pretty good here with BIIB's 3.4% decline on Friday. It definitely seems like the stock has reversed its four-week up trend. We are currently still on the sidelines waiting for BIIB to breakdown under support at the $38.00 level and hit our trigger at $37.99. If we are triggered we'll target 35.00-34.50 range. Another alternative entry point you may want to consider is a failed rally under $39.00 or $40.00. BIIB could bounce from the $38 level and aggressive traders can watch for the bounce to fail as under $39 or $40 as a new entry point. Keep an eye on the BTK biotech index, which has also produced another bearish reversal under the 640 level.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million


Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.68 chg: +0.55 stop: 46.25

Daily and weekly trends in BUD all point lower. Plus, the P&F chart is very bearish with its $33 price target. We suggested bearish positions on the oversold bounce on July 28th and as long as BUD trades under the $46.00 level we should be fine. Currently broken support in the $45.00 region should act as overhead resistance. Shares of BUD do not move very fast so we don't expect to update this play very often. The goal is to see BUD hit the $40.25-40.00 range before its October earnings report.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.11 chg: -0.17 stop: 29.01

IGT continues to look weak and poised for more selling. Shares broke down after investors responded to its earnings report and now after a couple of weeks of consolidating under previous support now new resistance it looks like IGT is ready to aim for its April lows. We would open new short positions here but more conservative traders may want to wait for IGT to trade under the $27.00 mark first. Our target is the $24.50-24.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $13 target.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.63 chg: -0.16 stop: 25.11*new*

So far so good. JNPR's oversold bounce from the July breakdown has failed under old support now new resistance at the $24.50 level. This also happens to be the neckline of its head-and-shoulders pattern. We have been suggesting that readers short the stock under $24.00 (more specifically 23.90). Our target is the $21.50-21.00 range, which could correspond with its H&S pattern's projected target. Meanwhile the P&F chart, which shows support near $20.00 points to a $9.00 target. We are going to lower our stop loss to $25.11. More conservative traders may want to set their stop closer to the 200-dma near $24.70. The biggest immediate risk to us here in JNPR is larger rival CSCO's earnings report, which is due out after the bell on Tuesday, August 9th. If CSCO's report is unexpectedly positive it could influence the whole sector.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million


LifePoint Hosp. - LPNT - cls: 46.35 chg: +0.97 stop: 47.26

It looks like using a trigger on this play was a smart move. LPNT appeared to have broken support on Thursday but we wanted confirmation so we suggested a trigger to short the stock at $44.95. Our strategy has not changed so we're reposting the play description from Thursday night:

The nine-month up trend for LPNT is in serious jeopardy. The stock has already broken down through support at the $46.00 level and is resting right on its simple 100-dma, which coincides with its rising trendline of support (see chart). We want confirmation that the trend has indeed been broke so we are suggesting a trigger to short LPNT at $44.95. If triggered we will target the $40.50-40.00 range, which appears to line up with a 50% retracement of its nine-month run. The biggest obstacle to reaching our goal is probably the simple or exponential 200-dma that is trading above the $40.00 level. Traders do have an alternative entry available. More aggressive players could look for a bounce back toward the $46.50 region and then short the stock there as it begins to roll over.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 686 thousand


Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 45.73 chg: -0.01 stop: 48.01

We thought the action on Friday was pretty interesting. As we suggested on Thursday shares of RCL did trade higher on Friday and hit an intraday high of $46.48 before reversing lower. Shares closed back under the $46.00 level and its exponential 200-dma. This may prove to be a new bearish entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait for RCL to trade under $45.00 level first before initiating new positions. We are targeting the $41.25-41.00 range near its April lows.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 48.18 chg: -1.39 stop: 50.51 *new*

We have good news to report on for TRI. The market weakness on Friday finally pushed the stock out of its narrow trading range near the $50.00 level. This could be the beginning of its next leg lower. We are targeting the $45.50-45.00 range above its simple 200-dma. We are going to try and reduce our risk by lowering the stop loss to $50.51. The next hurdle for the bears is the $46.00 level, which was support in mid-May and is now bolstered by the exponential 200-dma.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand


Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.82 chg: -0.09 stop: 29.01

If the SOX is any indication then the semiconductor sector is poised to see some profit taking. That's why we're suggesting shorts in XLNX. We don't see any changes to our strategy from Thursday night so we're going to repost that play description here:

The SOX semiconductor index is finally beginning to show some weakness. The sector is so overbought that it could endure several days of profit taking before it finds support. We also like that the SOX's MACD has just produced a new sell signal from very overbought levels. Meanwhile XLNX has also produced a new MACD sell signal as the stock's bounce from the July lows appears to have failed near the $29.00 level. The drop under the $28.00 level today looks like a new entry point to short XLNX although more conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under its simple 100-dma at 27.80 first. If you prefer to short a failed rally then watch for any bounce to roll over under the simple 200-dma 28.75. We are going to target a move into the $26.10-26.00 range.

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million

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