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Long Play Updates

LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 35.95 chg: +0.90 stop: 33.24*new*

ERICY displayed a lot of relative strength today with a 2.5% pop higher. This pushed ERICY to new multi-year highs with volume coming in way above average. Needless to say this is a very bullish move and suggests more strength ahead. More patient traders can look for a dip back toward the $35.00 level as a new entry point in case ERICY fills this morning's gap. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $33.25, just under the simple 50-dma.

Picked on August 03 at $35.19
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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Sara Lee - SLE - close: 20.02 chg: -0.38 stop: 19.74

Wall Street did not respond positively to news that Tupperware (TUP) was buying a direct sales unit from SLE for $557 million. According to an AP article the SLE unit markets beauty and personal care products in Latin American and Asia. Looking at shares of SLE we do note that the selling stopped and SLE produced a minor bounce from its simple 50-dma near its lows. More aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions on a bounce from this level. We remain on the sidelines with our suggested entry point to go long at $20.75 (above its 100-dma).

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

Assured Guaranty - AGO - close: 22.15 chg: -0.31 stop: 24.05

Our bearish play in AGO is now open. Shares actually plummeted at the open this morning trading through our entry point at $22.39 triggering the play. Interestingly enough AGO bounced from the $22.10 level this morning and rallied with the markets only to fail almost as quickly near the $22.50 region. If you missed the entry point this morning we would still consider shorts positions at current levels. More conservative players may want to wait for a decline under the $22.00 level, which might act as round-number support. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $22.39
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 229 thousand

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A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 47.10 chg: +0.39 stop: 49.01

As expected ASVI did bounce today. We are not suggesting new positions right here. Watch for a failed rally under the $48.00 level as a potential entry point.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 12.17 change: +0.04 stop: 13.26

ATYT produced a very minor bounce off the $12.00 level today. We remain bearish and continue to target the $11.50-11.20 range.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.27 chg: -0.05 stop: 46.25

No change from our weekend update. We are targeting the $40.25-40.00 range before its October earnings.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.66 change: -0.26 stop: 40.51

We don't see any change from our previous update. The early morning rally failed in DHI but we'd still be prepared for a bounce back toward the $39 region or its 50-dma before DHI continues lower. Our target is the $35.00-34.50 range.

Picked on August 07 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.35 chg: -0.15 stop: 29.01

IGT gapped higher this morning but the rally failed at the $28.00 level (again). We see this as another bearish entry point for traders to short the stock. Our target is the $24.50-24.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.56 chg: +0.26 stop: 25.11

Hmm... JNPR out performed the markets today and more specifically the tech sector and the networking industry. Maybe investors thought that if CSCO guided lower for its Q1 that it might mean JNPR is stealing market share. Or it might just be an oversold bounce in JNPR as it rebounds from short-term support near $23.00. We remain bearish given JNPR's head-and-shoulders pattern and continue tot arget the $21.50 region. Any failed rally under $24.00 can be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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LifePoint Hosp. - LPNT - cls: 47.01 chg: +0.06 stop: 47.26

No change in our stance here. We remain on the sidelines watching LPNT for a breakdown below the $45.00 level. Today's rally failed at the 50-dma but the very short-term trend is up. We may choose to close this play unopened if LPNT doesn't cooperate soon.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 686 thousand

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Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 45.36 chg: -0.82 stop: 48.01

Today's action in RCL might suggest that its oversold bounce is now over. We would consider new bearish positions here but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new low under $45.00 first. Our target is the $41.25-41.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 47.45 chg: +0.06 stop: 50.51

TRI paused in its recent descent and it may be time to look for an oversold bounce back toward its simple 10-dma near $49 but that doesn't change our bearish outlook. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand

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Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.37 chg: -0.12 stop: 29.01

XLNX continues to sink lower and is currently testing its simple 50-dma. Our target is the $26.10-26.00 range.

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million

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Yellow Roadway - YELL - close: 52.16 chg: -0.19 stop: 55.01

We are surprised to see the Dow Transports closing in the green today with crude oil hitting another record high. It is noteworthy that the bounce in YELL appears to be failing. Readers may want to initiate new short positions once YELL trades back under the $52.00 mark.

Picked on August 08 at $51.77
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 25.91 change: -0.66 stop: 30.01

We are closing this play unopened. We have been trying to play it somewhat safe by carefully choosing a bearish entry point in ADBE but it looks like we missed it. Readers may want to keep an eye on it and consider a failed rally under its simple 10-dma as a potential entry point to be evaluated. Today's low under the $26 level looks like bad news as it breaks the trend line of support connecting ADBE's lower lows over the past eight months.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.8 million
 

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