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Long Play Updates

LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 36.78 chg: +0.03 stop: 33.24

ERICY continues to show relative strength with a new three-year high on Friday. We remain very bullish on the stock but shares look a bit short-term overbought. We'd watch for a pull back into the $35.50 region as a new bullish entry point. Our six t eight week target is the $39.50-40.00 range. Meanwhile the P&F chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 03 at $35.19
Change since picked: + 1.59
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

Short Play Updates

Assured Guaranty - AGO - close: 22.35 chg: +0.11 stop: 24.05

We expected a bigger oversold bounce in shares of AGO but the rebound stalled under the $22.50 level. Readers can choose to open shorts here but there's still a chance the bounce isn't over year. More patient traders might wait for another test of resistance in the $22.75-23.00 region and then open positions. AGO has broken its three-month bullish trend and we're looking for a consolidation back down into the $20.50-20.00 range above its simple 200-dma.

Picked on August 10 at $22.39
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 229 thousand


A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 46.95 chg: +0.10 stop: 49.01

Bulls are struggling to release their grip on shares of ASVI so the tug-of-war continues between $45.50 and $47.50. It may be the upcoming 2-for-1 split this Thursday, August 25th. Momentum traders might be holding on for a last gasp pre-split rally. The split represents an unknown variable for us. ASVI could undergo some post-split depression as momentum traders move out of the stock. On the other hand ASVI could see some accumulation as investors wrongly believe it to be a better deal at the new lower price. We're going to keep the play open for now but we are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the simple 200-dma currently at 40.85.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand


ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 11.80 change: -0.08 stop: 13.01

ATYT continues to drift lower and additional profit taking in the semiconductors would certainly help the bears here. Also helping us out here is news that Wall Street seems dissatisfied with both ATYT and NVDA, the two premier graphics card manufacturers. Shares of ATYT are nearing our target in the $11.50-11.20 range so we're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million


Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.43 chg: +0.16 stop: 46.25

There is no new news to report on for BUD. The stock is in a strong bearish trend lower. The post-earnings sell-off was our entry point (actually the short-term bounce was). We're expecting BUD to slowly trend lower and eventually hit our target in the $40.25-40.00 range before its October earnings. Readers looking for new positions can watch for bounces/failed rallies toward the $45.00 region or a new relative low under $44.00.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 35.86 change: -0.69 stop: 40.01

Wow! DHI is really under performing both the market and its peers in the homebuilding sector. The stock lost another 1.88% on Friday after gapping down under the $36.00 level. Our target is the $35.00-34.50 range so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. However, we suspect that once DHI hits its 100-dma it will bounce and we'll be watching for another failed rally near its 50-dma.

Picked on August 07 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 2.59
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million


Hansen Natural - HANS - close: 43.85 chg: +1.23 stop: 47.51

Ta-da! HANS did indeed produce the oversold bounce we've been warning about. Shares rebounded 2.8% on Friday after the company issued a press release to respond to unfounded rumors and speculations regarding its business practices. We remain bearish on the stock but suspect the bounce is not over yet. HANS has indeed produced a double-top reversal pattern and broken its bullish up trend but we would watch for the oversold bounce to push HANS into the 45.00-45.50 region. A failed rally in that area could be used as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $38.00-37.50 range.

Picked on August 10 at $43.37
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.14 chg: -0.17 stop: 29.01

Will this be the week that IGT finally breaks down under support in the $26.85 region? We think it will be. The stock has been consolidating sideways for the last three weeks after breaking the neckline on its head-and-shoulders pattern. What's noteworthy is that the consolidation has a pattern of lower highs. We will continue to suggest shorts with IGT under the $28.00 level but if you prefer a little momentum wait for IGT to trade under $26.70. Our target is the $24.50-24.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.79 chg: +0.23 stop: 25.11

Networking stocks have been rather weak the past few days after CSCO disapointed investors with its guidance going forward. JNPR did manage to buck the trend in the sector but the overall picture for JNPR looks bearish with its head-and-shoulders pattern. We are suggesting shorts with JNPR under $24.00 and its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma but more conservative traders might want to see more confirmation with a decline under short-term support at the $23.00 mark. Our target is the $21.50-21.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million


LifePoint Hosp. - LPNT - cls: 45.60 chg: -1.15 stop: 47.26

Ahah! It looks like our patience in LPNT might be rewarded. The oversold bounce mid-week has failed at the 50-dma near $48.00. Friday saw LPNT lose another 2.45% as investors did more profit taking. Friday's decline also saw LPNT close under technical support at its 100-dma (again). While LPNT has broken down below its nine-month trendline of support we want to see confirmation before initiating shorts. Our suggested entry point to short the stock is at $44.95 under round-number support at the $45.00 mark. If LPNT does hit our trigger our target is the simple 200-dma near 41.40.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 686 thousand


Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 44.91 chg: -0.34 stop: 48.01

Investors are selling cruise ship stocks as both RCL and CCL have turned lower. We like how RCL's recent oversold bounce has failed and shares are trading near new relative lows. We would consider new short positions here under $45.50. Our target is the $41.25-41.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 46.86 chg: -0.54 stop: 49.51*new*

TRI sunk to a new three-month low on Friday but managed a small bounce off its intraday low as TRI neared its exponential 200-dma and its May low near $46.00. If the broader market manages any sort of bounce next week we'd expect TRI to produce an oversold bounce as well probably back towards the 10-dma near $48.50. Our target remains the $45.50-45.00 range just north of the simple 200-dma. We would not suggest new short positions at this time. We are lowering the stop loss to $49.51.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: - 2.34
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand


Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.00 chg: -0.44 stop: 29.01

Weakness in tech and the semiconductors has continued to weigh on shares of XLNX, which broke down to new three-week lows under technical support at its 50-dma on Friday. The short-term trend is bearish but we suspect it's time to watch for an oversold bounce. Readers may want to enter new short positions if XLNX produces a failed rally near $27.50 or even $28.00. Our target is unchanged at the $26.10-26.00 range (compared to the P&F chart, which points to $19).

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million


Yellow Roadway - YELL - close: 52.28 chg: -0.59 stop: 55.01

We think the upward momentum in the Dow transports is in serious jeopardy with crude oil hitting new record high day after day. If the transportation index finally breaks down then YELL is likely to test support at the bottom of its trading range near $48.00. It doesn't help investors that YELL has a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern that also points to a $48 target. While we would consider shorts here we suggest that more conservative traders wait for YELL to trade under $51.70 before initiating new positions. Our target is the 48.50-48.00 range.

Picked on August 08 at $51.77
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

Closed Long Plays

Sara Lee - SLE - close: 19.86 chg: -0.08 stop: 19.74

We are giving up on SLE. There has been no follow through on its post-earnings rally and no bounce from what should have been support at the $20.00 level. The MACD indicator is nearing a new sell signal. We're closing this play unopened as SLE never traded at or above our suggested entry point at $20.75.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million

Closed Short Plays


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