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Long Play Updates

Smithfield Foods - SFD - close: 28.16 change: +0.28 stop: 26.35

Right on target. We told readers to watch for a dip into the $27.00-27.50 region and SFD hit $27.27 this morning. Traders were there to buy the dip and SFD rallied back to a new one-month closing high. The stock remains under technical resistance at its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma but shares look in much better shape to try and breakout soon.

Picked on August 25 at $27.61
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 08/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 825 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Assured Guaranty - AGO - close: 22.32 chg: +0.30 stop: 22.55

Uh-oh! Shares of AGO got a late day pop higher toward the upper edge of its trading range. We don't like the way its technical indicators are shaping up and if the markets are positive tomorrow it wouldn't surprise us to see AGO breakout over resistance and hit our stop loss at $22.55.

Picked on August 10 at $22.39
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 229 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.28 chg: +0.13 stop: 46.25

No change from our weekend update on BUD. Our goal is the $40.00 region before its October earnings report.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 43.41 chg: +0.29 stop: 44.60

Retail stocks got a bit of a bounce today and COST joined them. One could argue that this is the beginning of a short-term double-bottom pattern for COST but there is no confirmation yet. Plus, the rally began to fail late this afternoon. A move back under $43.00 just might be a new bearish entry point.

Picked on August 24 at $43.33
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 10/06/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Quest Diagnostic - DGX - close: 50.44 change: +0.79 stop: 50.51

Our short-term trading play in DGX may very well backfire on us. The stock shot higher at the open and has pushed back above the $50.00 mark and technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. The stock is only seven cents from our stop loss at $50.51. We're not suggesting new positions unless DGX suddenly falls and trades back under the $49.50 level. Odds are that if the markets are at all positive tomorrow we'll be stopped out for a loss.

Picked on August 28 at $49.65
Change since picked: + 0.79
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 904 thousand


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Freeport Mcmoran - FCX - close: 40.80 chg: +0.95 stop: 42.01

This could be a worst-case scenario for us. FCX dipped lower at the open as Wall Street worried about the impact of Hurricane Katrina. FCX dipped low enough to pierce technical support at its simple 50-dma and hit our trigger to short the stock at $39.65 thus opening the play. Unfortunately, the weakness did not last and FCX bounded higher along with most of the metal-related stocks. This could spell bad news for shorts in the stock. Yet we're not going to cover just yet. The overall pattern, one of a broken up ward channel, is still intact. FCX "should" encounter resistance in the $41.50 region and turn lower again. Aggressive traders might want to use a failed rally under $41.50 as a new entry point. For the rest of us we'd wait for a new low under its 50-dma again before considering new bearish positions. Technical indicators have turned against us with today's bullish hook higher so use caution and some patience when considering positions.

Picked on August 29 at $39.65
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million


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Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.02 chg: +0.08 stop: 28.01

We see no changes from our weekend update on IGT.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 22.82 chg: -0.13 stop: 24.01

JNPR's relative weakness on Monday is a positive sign for us. We see no changes from our weekend update. Our target is the $21.50 level.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Jos. A. Bank - JOSB - close: 39.25 change: +1.06 stop: 40.01

Shares of JOSB are still being uncooperative. The stock added 2.7% on Monday out performing the market and its peers in the retail sector. There is still resistance at its 100-dma and additional resistance at the $40.00 mark but if the markets continue to bounce tomorrow we might see JOSB breakout to the upside. Double-check your stops. Ours is at $40.01.

Picked on August 16 at $39.95
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 09/06/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 297 thousand

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Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 43.96 chg: +0.27 stop: 46.01

Shares of RCL dipped to a new three-month low of $42.75 this morning but the rebound began in earnest this afternoon and RCL managed to close in the green. The whole session has the markings of a one-day bullish reversal pattern. We would expect the afternoon rebound to continue tomorrow. Watch for resistance in the $44.50-45.00 region. At this time we're not suggesting new plays.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Sonic Corp - SONC - close: 31.79 chg: +0.23 stop: 32.01

The market bounce today did not help our cause and shares of SONC have pushed back above technical resistance at its 100-dma and its 200-dma. This is bad news and the stock looks poised to hit our stop loss at $32.01. Naturally we're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 24 at $30.39
Change since picked: + 1.40
Earnings Date 09/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 537 thousand

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 45.65 change: -0.05 stop: 48.01

The lack of participation in the market's rebound today is good news for bears on WMT. However, we suspect the oversold bounce is not yet over. Readers can be patient and look for WMT to test the simple 10-dma still overhead before it moves lower.

Picked on August 24 at $45.95
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 08/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.2 million

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Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.57 chg: +0.70 stop: 28.01

Never mind that September is consistently the worst month of the year for stocks. It looks like someone is buying up shares of semiconductors. XLNX turned in a 2.6% rebound to out perform its peers in the SOX, which was up 1.3%. You'll notice on the daily chart that XLNX's MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal. Today's show of strength has probably killed the bear-flag pattern we showed you over the weekend. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None Today.

Closed Short Plays

Hansen Natural - HANS - close: 46.13 chg: +0.83 stop: 47.01

We have bad news to report on HANS. The stock has continued to bounce higher and looks poised to stop us out. There is still some resistance at the $47.00 level but its technical picture is improving and its MACD indicator just produced a new buy signal. We suggest that traders exit at their earliest convenience. Per our comments on our weekend update we're going to exit early.

Picked on August 10 at $43.37
Change since picked: + 2.76
Earnings Date 08/09/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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O M I Corp - OMM - close: 17.75 change: +0.84 stop: 18.01

The threat of Hurricane Katrina did not seem to be a problem late last week but over the weekend the storm's path steered right toward key oil import and refinery infrastructure along the gulf coast. Concerns that platform and refinery shutdowns would drive up demand for tankers lifted the entire sector on Monday. Shares of OMM added five percent and peaked intraday at $18.05, trading at our stop loss at $18.01 and stopping us out.

Picked on August 14 at $17.20
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

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