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Long Play Updates

Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 38.20 chg: +1.19 stop: 36.45

The market rally was partially fueled by a big bounce from support in the retailers. The RLX index added 2.6%. BCF outperformed its peers with a 3.2% rebound from minor support at the $37 level. More aggressive traders might want to consider bullish positions here but we're not sure the bulls are out of the woods yet. If the broader indices can build on Friday's strength then we might be more prone to actually launch new longs. A move over $39 in BCF would be a nice bullish confirmation. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 10/06/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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HR Block - HRB - close: 24.56 change: +0.53 stop: 22.99

Friday's market rally was a positive catalyst for HRB. The stock rebounded from the $24.00 level and broke through the top of its 24.00-24.50 trading range. This could be a new bullish entry point just keep an eye on the 50-dma near 24.70 as potential resistance. Our target is the simple 200-dma near $25.80.

Picked on October 23 at $24.09
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 11/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million

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Network Appl. - NTAP - close: 27.12 chg: +1.57 stop: 24.49

An upgrade for NTAP on Friday helped push the stock to a 6.1% gain on decent volume. We would suggest that traders prepare to exit. The simple 200-dma near $27.50 is probably technical resistance. Therefore we're going to adjust our exit target to $27.35-27.45. More conservative traders may just want to exit right here!

Picked on October 16 at $25.12
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

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Outback Stkhse - OSI - close: 37.28 chg: +1.03 stop: 35.75*new*

It's alive! OSI is back from a three-day decline. Friday's bounce from the $36 region (36.26 is close enough) looks like a new bullish entry point. The stock is still oversold from its three-month decline. Our target is the $39.90-40.00 range. We are raising our stop loss to $35.75.

Picked on October 23 at $37.21
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 10/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 819 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Educ. Mgmt. Corp. - EDMC - close: 29.92 chg: +0.18 stop: 31.05

Wow! EDMC just seems oblivious to the rest of the market. The stock didn't react very much on Thursday or Friday's big swings in the market. EDMC continues to trade under its trend of lower highs so the bearish posture remains intact. We will suggest shorts with EDMC under the $30.00 level. However, if the major market averages do follow through on Friday's rally with additional gains this week we will turn more cautious on EDMC. We do plan to exit ahead of the company's November 8th earnings report. Our target is the $27.75 mark.

Picked on October 26 at $29.73
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 11/08/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 493 thousand

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Elkcorp - ELK - close: 31.00 chg: +0.59 stop: 32.51 *new*

The market rally on Friday rescued ELK from a new relative low. The stock bounced from the $30 level with a 1.9% gain. The trend remains bearish and we continue to target the $27.00 level. Readers can watch for a failed rally under $32.00 as a new bearish entry point or wait for a new low under $30.00. We're adjusting the stop loss to 32.51.

Picked on October 27 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 10/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 205 thousand

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Sanderson Farms - SAFM - close: 33.35 chg: +0.39 stop: 36.11

After dropping seven out of the last eight sessions SAFM was granted a reprieve on Friday. The stock bounce but even then shares seemed to under perform. We remain bearish but the oversold bounce may not be over. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $32.00-31.00 range.

Picked on October 23 at $35.17
Change since picked: - 1.82
Earnings Date 12/07/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 257 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Netflix - NFLX - close: 26.35 change: +0.45 stop: 25.01

The market was just too positive on Friday and odds are more than a few bears capitulated and covered their shorts. The move on Friday also answered what direction the stock is likely to head following the inside day on Thursday. Therefore we're closing the play without ever opening it. Our trigger to short the stock was $23.74.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

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