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Long Play Updates

ATP Oil & Gas - ATPG - close: 34.23 chg: -0.93 stop: 31.99.

ATPG is a new bullish candidate from the Thursday night newsletter. The stock did pull back on Friday with the sell-off in oil stocks. ATPG held support at the $34.00 level and this looks like a new bullish entry point but traders might want to wait for signs of a bounce from here before going long. Our original play description is reposted here:

It looks like the consolidation in oil stocks may be ending. Shares of ATPG rallied strongly on Wednesday following its earnings report. Today the rally continued fueled by a strong session for crude oil. Today's gain in ATPG is also a significant breakout over resistance at the $34.00 level. The rising volume on the rally is also a bullish sign. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $50.00 price target. We normally try not to chase a move greater than five percent but we remain bullish on the oil stocks longer-term. We would suggest positions here with ATPG over $35.00 but our preferred entry point would be to wait for a pull back toward the $34.00 region (maybe 34.25-34.50). Broken resistance at $34.00 should now act as new support. It can take patience to wait for a dip and there is a risk that ATPG will not pull back any time soon. We will aim for a move into the $39.50-40.00 range. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks. We do have a wide stop but will adjust it higher once ATPG confirms the breakout.

Picked on November 03 at $35.16
Change since picked: - 0.93
Earnings Date 11/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 289 thousand


Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 39.00 chg: +0.20 stop: 36.45

The retailers continued to rally on Friday and BCR took another step closer to breaking out over resistance at the $39.00 level. We remain bullish and continue to target the $43.50-44.00 range. More conservative traders might want to wait for more confirmation with a move over $39.05.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 10/06/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand


Csk Auto - CAO - close: 15.50 change: -0.00 stop: 14.24

CAO offered bulls another entry point with the dip and bounce from its simple 50-dma near $15.20 on Friday. If you missed the dip we'd still consider longs right here at $15.50. Our target is the $17.50 mark over the next four to five weeks.

Picked on November 02 at $15.58
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 12/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand


Crown Castle - CCI - close: 26.35 change: -0.10 stop: 24.24

Unfortunately, we do not have much new to say about CCI. The stock is still a little short-term overbought so traders looking for a new entry point might want to wait for a stronger dip. Broken resistance at the $25.00 level should act as new support. The Point & Figure chart continues to point to a $47 target. Our target is the $29.00 mark.

Picked on November 01 at $25.81
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 10/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million


IPC Holdings - IPCR - close: 29.11 chg: +1.13 stop: 26.99

Bulls did buy Thursday's dip and shares of IPCR added more than four percent on Friday. We see no changes from our previous updates. It looks like IPCR has made a trend change and we're targeting a rebound back into the $29.95-30.00 range. More aggressive traders might want to aim higher. The simple 50-dma is near $32.60.

Picked on November 02 at $28.15
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 408 thousand


Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 41.80 chg: -0.11 stop: 38.99

The rally in PDCO is starting to look a little tired. If you're looking for a new entry point it might be prudent to wait for a dip to the rising 10-dma near $40.90 or at least the $41 level. A bounce from there could be an attractive entry point. Our target is the $44-45 range. We plan to exit before the company announces earnings in late November.

Picked on October 30 at $40.85
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 11/24/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

Short Play Updates

Phazar - ANTP - close: 13.62 change: +0.30 stop: 15.01

Hmm... ANTP did turn lower on Friday morning but the stock turned strongly positive by the end of the day. It doesn't look like the bounce is over and Monday could make us nervous. Watch for the simple 50-dma near $14.50 to act as overhead resistance. The stock can be volatile and we would consider this a more aggressive play. If you missed the original play description on Thursday night we're reposting it here:

We are going to try our hand at another play in ANTP. We've successfully played the stock in the past but shares remain volatile and we only suggest aggressive players consider shorting it. The stock has been sinking under a multi-month trend of lower highs. The breakdown under support at the $15.00 level back in October was very significant. There was a quick rally higher in the last week of October but broken support near $15.00 held as new overhead resistance. The recent rally is beginning to fade with two failed attempts to breakout over the $15 level and its simple 50-dma. There is significant risk here. The most recent data put short-interest in ANTP at close to 21% of its 2.2 million shares outstanding. The rally in late October was probably a short-squeeze. We are going to suggest shorts with the stock under $14.00 but we'll use a wide stop at $15.01 since shares can be volatile. Our eight-week target is the $10.20-10.00 range.

Picked on November 03 at $13.32
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 10/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 182 thousand


Mentor Graphics - MENT - close: 8.77 chg: -0.05 stop: 8.36

MENT has continued to rally and actually broke out over the top of its trading range at the $9.00 level on an intraday basis this Friday. The rally eventually failed but the intraday chart suggests that MENT might try to breakout again on Monday. Our initial plan was to short the stock on a breakdown through the bottom of its trading range. The trigger was $7.80. Now it looks like we should consider going long the stock if shares can push past the simple 100-dma at $9.08.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 713 thousand


Sanderson Farms - SAFM - close: 33.76 chg: +0.13 stop: 36.11

Rival poultry producer PPC has rallied strongly the last few days and this could be slowing SAFM's decline. We are not suggesting new short positions. Instead we're going to tighten our stop to breakeven at $35.17. Our target is the $32.00-31.00 range.

Picked on October 23 at $35.17
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 12/07/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 257 thousand


Sysco - SYY - close: 30.04 chg: -0.35 stop: 32.01

Good news! SYY continues to show relative weakness. The oversold bounce from round-number support at the $30.00 level appears to have already failed. Shares look poised to breakdown and hit new one-year lows. Our target is the $28.50-28.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart points to a $22 target.

Picked on November 01 at $30.60
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 10/31/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

Closed Long Plays

Outback Stkhse - OSI - close: 40.10 chg: +0.52 stop: 37.21

Target achieved. Friday was another strong day for OSI and its third gain in a row. Shares surged to $40.78 intraday and closed over round-number resistance at the $40.00 level. Our target was the $39.90-40.00 range.

Picked on October 23 at $37.21
Change since picked: + 2.89
Earnings Date 10/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 819 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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