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Long Play Updates

Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 41.54 chg: +0.30 stop: 38.45 *new*

BCF continued to rally on Friday after bulls bought the early dip near $40.65. We believe that BCF will continue to rally into the holiday season (a.k.a. cold weather). Traders looking for a new entry point can watch for a dip back to its 10-dma near 40.45 or the $40 level. Odds are growing for another dip with the major averages so overbought. We're raising our stop loss to $38.45. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: + 2.68
Earnings Date 10/06/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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Csk Auto - CAO - close: 15.82 change: +0.10 stop: 14.95

Time is running low for our CAO play. The company is expected to report earnings on Monday, December 5th and we do not want to hold over the report. Currently the stock is poised under resistance near $16.00 and its exponential 200-dma. The question is whether or not the stock will breakout before the earnings report. Given the trend of higher lows it looks like CAO might breakout but we're worried that the major averages are overbought and due for a pull back, which would normally stall any bullish action in CAO. We are not suggesting new plays and we plan to exit on Friday, December 2nd near the closing bell. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $15.19 or $15.39 to reduce your risk. We're going to adjust our target to $16.40 near its simple 200-dma.

Picked on November 02 at $15.58
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 12/05/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand

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CE Frankline Ltd - CFK - close: 12.10 chg: +0.09 stop: 9.99

CFK is giving us some mixed signals. Short-term some of its oscillators are starting to look a bit bearish. Meanwhile its weekly indicators and its P&F chart are bullish. It would be great to see CFK rally from its 10-dma (11.87) or the $12.00 level. However, we would not be surprised to see a dip back to $11.50 or even $11.00, especially now with the major indices looking so overbought and due for a pull back. Given the circumstances we would hesitate to launch new bullish positions right here. Our target is going to be the $14.75-15.00 range over the next seven weeks. We are suggesting a stop loss at $9.99 but more conservative traders might want to consider something tighter (the 50-dma is near 10.98).

Picked on November 16 at $11.98
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 150 thousand

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Cree Inc. - CREE - close: 27.45 change: +0.16 stop: 24.89

The SOX semiconductor sector index continued to creep higher on Friday and CREE followed suit. The bad news is that the SOX is still struggling with resistance in the 485 region. Meanwhile CREE, which broke through significant resistance at $26 several days ago, hit a new three-month high on Friday. Currently the major averages look overbought and due for a pull back and when that occurs we'd look for CREE to retest the $26 level as support. A bounce from $26 could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target will be the $30.00-31.00 range.

Picked on November 20 at $26.89
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 01/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.62 chg: -0.05 stop: 32.45

Homebuilding stocks took a post-Thanksgiving nap on Friday. Shares of DHI spent almost the entire session bouncing along the $36.50 level. If the major averages pull back we would watch for DHI to dip toward the $35 level. A bounce from $35.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point. Actually a bounce from $36 could be used as an entry point but we expect more profit taking in DHI if the DJIA/SPX consolidate some of their gains. Our target for DHI is the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 46.71 change: +0.07 stop: 42.45

Friday was a quiet session for EBAY. We suspect that shares will pull back and retest the $45 level and/or its simple 10-dma currently at 44.77 as support before moving higher again. We would wait for a bounce from this support before initiating new longs in EBAY. EBAY's P&F chart points to a $66 target. Our target is the $49.90-50.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $45.10
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 01/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.2 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 20.93 chg: -0.09 stop: 18.99

GLW's rally continues to struggle with the $21.00 level. We suspect that with the major averages overbought and due for a dip that GLW will dip too back toward the $20.00-20.25 region. We would wait for a bounce above the $20.00 mark before considering new bullish positions. GLW's P&F chart currently points to a $29 target. Our target is the $21.90-22.00 range. We're going to raise our stop loss to $19.89 to reduce our risk.

Picked on November 13 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.8 million

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Kraft Foods - KFT - close: 30.11 chg: +0.05 stop: 28.89

If you missed Wednesday's newsletter KFT is a new bullish candidate based on its technical breakout about long-term resistance. The stock powered through resistance on Wednesday and there was some initial follow through buying on Friday morning. Unfortunately, the rally on Friday stalled at $30.50 and KFT gave up most of its gains. The action on Friday looks like a short-term top. Watch for a dip back toward the $29.50 level, which as broken resistance should now act as new support. A bounce from the $29.50 level could be used as a new bullish entry point. We plan on riding KFT into January up to its mid-month earnings report. The P&F chart for KFT points to a $48 target. Our target is the $32.50 mark.

Picked on November 23 at $30.06
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 01/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Mentor Graphics - MENT - close: 9.11 chg: -0.13 stop: 8.64

Last Wednesday was a big day for MENT. The stock broke out over the top of its four-month trading range at the $9.00 level. Our trigger to go long was at $9.05 opening the play. Friday's session saw the stock pull back but broken resistance at $9.00 acted as new support and shares of MENT were rebounding higher into the afternoon. This looks like another bullish entry point to go long the stock. Our target is currently the $9.95-10.00 range near its 200-dma.

Picked on November 23 at $ 9.05
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 01/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 713 thousand

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VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 28.42 chg: +0.29 stop: 25.90

The rally continued for shares of WOOF on Friday with the stock adding just over one percent to close at a new all-time high. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. If the major market averages pull back then WOOF could dip back to the $27.50 or $27.00 levels pretty easily. If this occurs we'd watch for a bounce as a new entry point. In the meantime more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're going to leave ours at $25.90 for now. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 1.68
Earnings Date 10/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
 

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