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Long Play Updates

ANSYS Inc. - ANSS - close: 43.03 change: -0.03 stop: 40.89

We'd probably call today a victory for the bulls in ANSS. The NASDAQ lost 0.69% and the GSO software index lost 0.75% but ANSS held its ground, traded sideways all day, and closed with a minor 0.06% decline. The stock has some resistance at $44.00 and we are suggesting a trigger at $44.05 to open the play. If triggered we'll target a move into the $49-50 range by the end of January. The Point & Figure chart currently points to a $60 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 153 thousand

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Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 41.20 chg: -0.22 stop: 38.90

We don't see any change from our weekend update on BCF. The stock dipped to $40.60 but rebounded to close with a minor loss. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Our year-end target is the $43.50 level.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: + 2.34
Earnings Date 10/06/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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CE Frankline Ltd - CFK - cls: 13.25 chg: +1.00 stop: 11.44*new*

Now that's more like it! A rise in crude oil prices fueled a rally in the oil sector and CFK helped lead the way with an 8% gain on big volume. Volume was almost three times the average, which suggests more strength ahead. The stock closed at highs not seen since the fourth quarter of 1997. Our target is the $14.75-15.00 range over the next several weeks. We are raising our stop loss to $11.44.

Picked on November 16 at $11.98
Change since picked: + 1.27
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 150 thousand

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Cree Inc. - CREE - close: 27.18 change: -0.59 stop: 25.49

Semiconductors hit some profit taking today and the SOX lost 1.56% making it the worst performer among the tech-related indices. CREE followed suit with a 2.12% decline. However, it's interesting to note that the selling stalled near the $27.00 level and CREE continued to consolidate there for the rest of the session. Our six-week target is the $30.00-31.00 range.

Picked on November 20 at $26.89
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 01/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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CenturyTel Inc. - CTL - close: 33.15 change: -0.13 stop: 32.39

We remain on the sidelines and don't see any change from our previous update on CTL. Our strategy is to go long on a breakout over resistance at the 200-dma and the $33.50 level. Our trigger to buy the stock is at $33.55. If triggered we'll target a run to $36.00 before its January earnings report. The Point & Figure chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 855 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.32 chg: -0.20 stop: 33.75

The rally in the homebuilders paused today as interest rates started moving higher again. The good news with DHI is the stock rebounded off its lows for the session and began trading higher into the close. This looks like a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Our target for DHI is the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 45.20 change: +0.01 stop: 42.45

EBAY tried and failed again to breakout over the $46.00 level. Weakness in the tech sectors didn't help matters. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $46 before considering new longs. Our six-week target is the $49.90-50.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $45.10
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 01/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.2 million

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Forest Oil - FST - close: 46.20 change: +0.05 stop: 42.75

FST's failure to follow through on Thursday's and Friday's strength may suggest the stock still has more consolidating to go. It is true that Friday's intraday move over $47 was a breakout over the bullish/inverted head-and-shoulders pattern but the lack of follow through is a problem! Don't be surprised to see a dip back to $45 or even $44. Aggressive traders may want to buy a bounce. We are suggesting traders wait for another move over $47 before going long. Our target is the $52.50-53.00 range. We do not want to hold over FST's February earnings report.

Picked on December 02 at $47.01
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 21.27 chg: +0.42 stop: 19.99

Good news! GLW displayed some relative strength today with a 2% rally through resistance at the $21.00 level. The stock looks poised to make a run toward our target in the $21.90-22.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.8 million

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Grant Prideco - GRP - close: 42.60 chg: +0.68 stop: 38.49

Strength in oil prices fueled another gain for GRP, which added 1.6% on above average volume. We see no changes from our previous update. Our target is the $46-47 range. We do not want to hold over GRP's earnings report in January.

Picked on December 02 at $41.80
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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JAMDAT Mobile - JMDT - close: 22.98 chg: -0.53 stop: 22.49

We are still in a watch-and-wait mode with JMDT. The stock is still consolidating above its simple 200-dma near the $22.50 level. Our strategy is to catch the next leg higher with a trigger at $24.01. If triggered we'll target the $26.95-27.00 range. FYI: the latest data put short interest at 22.8% of the 24.8 million share float.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 368 thousand

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K-Swiss - KSWS - close: 31.74 chg: -0.72 stop: 30.89

Traders may want to go to yellow-alert here with KSWS and keep an eye on the exit door. The stock failed to see any follow through from Friday's rally and instead the stock produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. These patterns are normally one-day reversal patterns but they need to see some follow through to really validate them. We have a relatively tight stop at $30.89, which is just under the seven-week trend of higher lows (a.k.a. support). More conservative traders could probably tighten their stops toward $31.25. A bounce back over $32.60 could be used as a new entry point.

Picked on November 29 at $32.09
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand

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Levitt - LEV - close: 22.70 chg: +0.26 stop: 20.95

LEV displayed some relative strength today by posting another gain in spite of a market pull back. We don't see any changes from our previous update. We would suggest long positions with LEV above $21.80 and target a run up into the $24.90-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February earnings report.

Picked on December 01 at $22.27
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 27.92 chg: -0.08 stop: 25.90

There are no surprises here. We've been telling readers for days now that the momentum in WOOF has stalled and the stock looks poised for a pull back. We're surprised that the profit taking has been so mild. The $27 level and $26 level are the next two areas of support. We would not suggest new positions at this time. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
 

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