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Long Play Updates

ANSYS Inc. - ANSS - close: 44.21 change: -0.88 stop: 40.89

Danger! Will Robinson! If we had a robot friend to monitor our trading it might shout out a warning after today's market weakness, especially if it saw the action in ANSS today. The stock tried to rally but failed under the $46 level and then proceeded to fall toward broken resistance now new support near $44.00. The drop to support near $44 is not a problem. We suggested that traders look for a dip toward $44 as a new entry point. The danger lies in today's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is usually seen as a one-day (bearish) reversal pattern. We would not suggest new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $42 or $43 levels. We're going to leave ours under the simple 50-dma for now. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range by the end of January. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on December 22 at $44.05
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 153 thousand

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Anglogold - AU - close: 47.59 change: -0.42 stop: 44.95

Gold stocks were not immune to today's sell-off. Shares of AU posted a 0.8% loss and also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit right here for a gain. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 06 at $44.81
Change since picked: + 2.78
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 904 thousand

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BMC Software - BMC - close: 21.11 change: +0.16 stop: 20.74

BMC displayed some relative strength today. The stock added 0.76% and broke out over resistance at the $21.00 level. Our trigger to go long the stock was at $21.11. Our target now is the $21.85-22.00 range.

Picked on December 27 at $21.11
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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CenturyTel - CTL - close: 33.33 change: -0.12 stop: 32.75 *new*

CTL continues to oscillate sideways near the $33.50 level. The failed rally under the 100-dma today looks bearish so we're going to raise our stop loss to $32.75 just under the simple 50-dma. We are not suggesting new bullish positions here.

Picked on December 12 at $33.55
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 855 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.26 chg: +0.05 stop: 34.75

Homebuilders were one of the few sectors to close in the green today. Unfortunately, the strength was not very impressive. DHI tried to rally higher but closed off its best levels of the session. So far DHI is still trading above short-term support near $36 and the stock is also testing support at its multi-week trendline of higher lows. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target for DHI is the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Duke Energy - DUK - close: 27.69 change: -0.14 stop: 26.89

Bulls bought the afternoon dip to $27.50 but they did not have enough momentum to push DUK into the green. The stock is close to our $27.95-28.00 target. We are not suggesting new positions here.

Picked on December 13 at $26.89
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.49 change: -0.02 stop 2.39

There is no change from our weekend update on JDSU. We remain on the sidelines. Our trigger to go long/buy the stock is at $2.65. If triggered we'll target a rally to $2.98. We would qualify this as an aggressive play.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 50.0 million

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Levitt - LEV - close: 22.92 chg: +0.38 stop: 21.95

LEV displayed some impressive relative strength on Tuesday. The stock added 1.6% and looks poised to breakout over the $23.00 level again. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on December 01 at $22.27
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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LifeCell Corp. - LIFC - close: 19.56 change: -0.21 stop: 19.24

We do not see any change from our weekend update on LIFC. Currently we are on the sidelines. Our trigger to go long the stock is at $20.65. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $24-25 range.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

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Norfolk So. Corp. - NSC - close: 44.81 chg: -0.39 stop: 42.34

The Dow Transportation sector hit some profit taking on Tuesday and the railroads were not immune. Shares of NSC hit a new high this morning but failed to hold its gains. We would not suggest new positions right here. Watch for a dip back toward the $44.00 level. Actually we'd watch for a bounce from the $44 level. The stock remains a candidate to benefit from any end-of-quarter window dressing. Our end of January target is the $48.50-49.00 range. The Point & Figure chart for NSC currently points to a $64 target. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 22 at $44.35
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Outback Steakhouse - OSI - close: 41.00 chg: -0.28 stop: 40.49

OSI tried to rally this morning but couldn't make it past Friday's high. The ensuing sell-off stalled above $40.50 and OSI was bouncing higher into the closing bell. Watch for a move over $41.70 before considering new longs. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the 200-dma before considering new long positions.

Picked on December 23 at $41.55
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 789 thousand

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VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 27.85 chg: -0.13 stop: 26.74

We do not see any change from our weekend update on WOOF. We will plan to exit ahead of the late January earnings report. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

Short Play Updates

Danaher - DHR - close: 55.30 change: -0.41 stop: 57.35

Tuesday's action in DHR may prove to be a new entry point for more aggressive traders. The stock tried to rally this morning but failed near short-term resistance in the $56 region and its descending 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for DHR to trade under short-term support near $55.00 before considering new short positions. Our target for DHR is the $51.25-51.00 range.

Picked on December 18 at $55.79
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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NeuroMetrix - NURO - close: 26.91 chg: -0.17 stop: 31.05

We don't see any change from our weekend update on NURO. Our target is $25.25. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on December 06 at $29.59
Change since picked: - 2.68
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 210 thousand

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Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 37.90 chg: -0.18 stop: 39.25

Today might be a new bearish entry point in WAT. The stock rallied higher this morning but failed under $39.00 and its multi-month trendline of resistance. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under the December 20th low near $37.55 before initiating positions. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 18 at $38.60
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 901 thousand

Closed Long Plays

Forest Oil - FST - close: 45.07 change: -1.17 stop: 44.89

FST is another casualty of the energy sector sell-off on Tuesday. The stock broke down, on an intraday basis, below support at the $45.00 level and its 50-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $44.89 closing the play.

Picked on December 02 at $47.01
Change since picked: - 1.94
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Nautilus - NLS - close: 18.70 change: -0.52 stop: 18.75

Tuesday proved to be a bearish day for NLS. The stock failed to join the markets in their morning rally higher. Instead the stock was weak from the start and lost 2.7% to close under its 21-dma and breakdown through the bottom of its rising channel. We've been stopped out at $18.75.

Picked on December 11 at $18.81
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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