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Long Play Updates

ANSYS Inc. - ANSS - close: 43.48 change: -0.47 stop: 40.89

Volume was very light today for shares of ANSS and volume will probably be lighter still tomorrow. We would expect shares of ANSS to continue drifting lower toward the $43.00-42.50 region. We would wait for a move over $44.50 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss under Wednesday's low near $42.89. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range by the end of January. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on December 22 at $44.05
Change since picked: - 0.57
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 153 thousand

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BMC Software - BMC - close: 20.96 change: -0.12 stop: 20.74

Technology stocks are not making much progress since the Santa Claus rally has been a no show. BMC is consolidating under the $20.00 level but above the 10-dma. Given the current market environment we are not optimistic and more conservative traders may just want to exit early right here to cut their losses. We would only consider new long positions here on a move over $21.20. Our target now is the $21.85-22.00 range.

Picked on December 27 at $21.11
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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CenturyTel - CTL - close: 33.52 change: +0.20 stop: 32.75

CTL's relative strength today is encouraging but the stock remains stuck trading sideways around the $33.50 level and its 200-dma. We are not suggesting new bullish positions here.

Picked on December 12 at $33.55
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 855 thousand

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Duke Energy - DUK - close: 27.51 change: -0.09 stop: 26.89

We do not see any change from yesterday's update on DUK. Our target is the $27.95-28.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions here.

Picked on December 13 at $26.89
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million


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JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.41 change: -0.00 stop 2.39

There is no change from our weekend update on JDSU. We remain on the sidelines. Our trigger to go long/buy the stock is at $2.65. If triggered we'll target a rally to $2.98. We would qualify this as an aggressive play. If JDSU closes under the simple 50-dma we'll remove the stock as a bullish candidate.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 50.0 million

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Levitt - LEV - close: 23.20 chg: -0.31 stop: 21.95

LEV's rally paused after hitting some resistance yesterday. We would not suggesting new positions at this moment. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on December 01 at $22.27
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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LifeCell Corp. - LIFC - close: 18.85 change: -0.33 stop: 19.24

We do not see any change from our weekend update on LIFC. Currently we are on the sidelines. Our trigger to go long the stock is at $20.65. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $24-25 range. We might drop LIFC as a bullish candidate if the stock trades under $18.50 tomorrow.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

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Norfolk So. Corp. - NSC - close: 44.96 chg: +0.01 stop: 42.34

NSC tried to rally again but the stock couldn't push past the $46.00 level. The intraday chart shows a short-term double-top like pattern over the last few days. That would suggest a pull back is coming. Watch for a dip toward $44.00 and its 10-dma. We would not open new bullish positions right here. Technically we remain bullish on NSC but if you remember Jim's wrap from a few days ago we don't have a bullish bias for transports in January. A bounce from the $44.00 level would look like a new bullish entry point but do so cautiously and watch your stops! The Point & Figure chart for NSC currently points to a $64 target. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 22 at $44.35
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Outback Steakhouse - OSI - close: 41.75 chg: +0.26 stop: 40.49

OSI displayed some relative strength today with a new relative high, which helped produce a new MACD buy signal. Unfortunately, the rally failed to breakout over the $42 level and its simple 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the 200-dma before considering new long positions.

Picked on December 23 at $41.55
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 789 thousand

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VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 28.06 chg: -0.08 stop: 26.74

WOOF hit a new all-time high over resistance at $28.50 today but it didn't stick. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We will plan to exit ahead of the late January earnings report. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

Short Play Updates

Danaher - DHR - close: 55.97 change: +0.51 stop: 57.35

Today's show of relative strength in DHR and its intraday breakout over resistance near $56 and its 10-dma are not positive signals for any bears. The stock does still have some resistance near $56.50 and the $57 level but we are not suggesting new short positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to wait for DHR to trade under short-term support near $55.00 before considering new short positions. Our target for DHR is the $51.25-51.00 range.

Picked on December 18 at $55.79
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Network Appliance - NTAP - cls: 27.50 chg: -0.20 stop: 29.05

NTAP is still sinking lower albeit slowly. We do not see any changes from our play description on Wednesday. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $27.50 or under Friday's low near 27.37 before considering new positions. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 range since NTAP appears to have long-term support near the $25 region. We do expect a bounce from the $27 level near its 200-dma.

Picked on December 28 at $27.70
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million

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NeuroMetrix - NURO - close: 27.30 chg: +0.14 stop: 31.05

NURO traded in a very narrow range today. We don't see any change from our weekend update on NURO. Our target is $25.25. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on December 06 at $29.59
Change since picked: - 2.29
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 210 thousand

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Somanetics - SMTS - close: 30.98 change: -2.07 stop: 35.05

We have been triggered. Shares of SMTS plunged lower today following yesterday's bearish decline to the 50-dma. Today's 6.2% drop was fueled by very strong volume almost four times the daily average. Big volume on a sell-off is bearish. Helping drive the stock lower today were comments from analysts saying the stock is already fairly valued and the company could see more competition. Our trigger to short the stock was at $32.45. There was an initial bounce from the $30.00 level and it may not be over yet. A failed rally in the $32.50-33.00 range could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $27.50-27.00 range. The biggest challenge and risk here may be the time frame. We do not want to hold over the January 11th (unconfirmed) earnings report. We may have to consider an early exit near the 100-dma (currently near 28.50).

Picked on December 29 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 01/11/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 158 thousand

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Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 38.12 chg: -0.11 stop: 39.25

We do not see any change from our previous updates on WAT. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under the December 20th low near $37.55 before initiating positions. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 18 at $38.60
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 901 thousand

Closed Long Plays

Anglogold - AU - close: 49.85 change: +1.05 stop: 44.95

Target achieved. Gold stocks rallied again and shares of AU added another 2.15% today. Our target was the $49.50-50.00 range. Shares are facing potential resistance at the $50.00 mark so if you don't exit now be careful!

Picked on December 06 at $44.81
Change since picked: + 5.04
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 904 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.21 chg: +0.06 stop: 35.75

With uncanny accuracy the markets were able to pinpoint our stop loss and pull DHI just low enough to hit our stop loss this morning. The homebuilders turned lower this morning after the negative existing home sales figures but then managed to rebound higher off their lows. Unfortunately, the rally was not to last and the group faded back from its highs into the market-wide afternoon sell-off. We've been stopped out at $35.75.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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