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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - close: 43.55 chg: +0.04 stop: 43.69

AAP managed to close in the green on Wednesday but we're not sure the bounce has any strength behind it. We are going to keep AAP as a bullish candidate on the list for now. Our trigger to go long the stock is at $45.05, above resistance at the $45.00 level. We'll abandon the play if AAP closes under the 50-dma. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $48.00-49.00 range. This play might be considered more aggressive than normal because of our time frame. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 891 thousand

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Amer. Power Conv. - APCC - cls: 23.32 chg: +0.09 stop: 22.90

We see no change from our previous updates. APCC is still churning sideways in its trading range between $23.00 and its 100-dma. We're choosing to keep the play open. The stock has been somewhat resilient and thus far has not broken support at the $23.00 level. We would not suggest new long positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 08 at $23.57
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Bluelinx - BXC - close: 12.66 change: +0.06 stop: 11.45

BXC is still trying to bounce from its rising 10-dma. Considering the current (bearish) market environment we hesitate to suggest new long positions here. Our target for BXC is the $15.00-15.50 range by late February through early March. FYI - the P&F chart points to a $25 target.

Picked on January 10 at $12.47
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand

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Evergreen Solar - ESLR - cls: 13.32 chg: +0.37 stop: 11.85*new*

ESLR is showing lots of relative strength with a 2.8% gain on big volume today. Volume was more than double the daily average and that's bullish given the rise in price. We are raising the stop loss to $11.85. Our target is the $13.90-14.00 range. It would be tempting to aim higher but we do not want to hold over the company's earnings February earnings report.

Picked on January 10 at $12.25
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 02/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Nexen Inc. - NXY - close: 52.12 change: -1.77 stop: 47.95

NXY was unable to escape the profit taking in the energy sector today. Shares lost 3.2% and have filled the gap from Tuesday morning. A bounce back over $52.50 could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $57.50-58.00 range by mid February.

Picked on January 11 at $52.11
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 02/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 424 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 36.33 change: -0.59 stop: 33.85

We believe the dip in PTEN looks like a new bullish entry point. Yet traders might want to wait. The dip may not be over yet and PTEN could decline toward its rising 10-dma (35.25) before moving higher again. A bounce from the 10-dma would be an attractive entry point. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the earnings report. Unfortunately, we can't find a good date for PTEN's upcoming announcement. Some sources say January 26th other say the 31st, while other suggest PTEN will report earnings in February or even March.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Shanda Inter. - SNDA - close: 16.34 change: -0.66 stop: 16.75

Asian bourses turned lower after the Japanese stock exchanged posted its second big decline in two days. Today's decline was steep enough that the exchanged closed early. This weighed on the neighboring countries and Chinese SNDA fell almost 4% when its began trading here in the states. Since we are still on the sidelines and not at risk we're willing to give SNDA a couple of more days to try and bounce back before we remove it from the play list. Our trigger to go long is at $18.10. If triggered we will target a rally into the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

Landstar System - LSTR - close: 39.62 change: -0.80 stop: 42.01

The action in LSTR is very interesting. Most of the transportation stocks rebounded today after a big bounce in the airline sector. Yet not so for LSTR. The stock continued to decline and has broken down below support at the $40.00 level and its 100-dma. Our trigger to short the stock was at $39.95 and the play is now open. Volume on today's breakdown was more than double the average, which is bearish! Our target is the $36.50-36.00 range above its simple 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 18 at $39.95
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 406 thousand

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.22 change: +0.53 stop: 35.41

Attention! More conservative traders may want to abort this play immediately. MEDI dipped low enough this morning to break support at the 100-dma and hit our trigger to short the stock at $33.45. The low today was $33.41. Unfortunately, shares immediately rebounded and closed with a 1.5% gain. The move today has produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally seen as a bullish reversal pattern. The stock does still have multiple levels of overhead resistance and the major averages look vulnerable to more weakness so we're not going to abandon the play just yet but the risks for being short MEDI just jumped higher. Our target is currently the $30.50-30.00 range.

Picked on January 18 at $33.45
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

LifeCell Corp. - LIFC - cls: 20.77 change: -2.15 stop: 19.99

The recent breakout in LIFC had looked very promising. The stock was up over 10% from our picked price as of Tuesday's close. Unfortunately, all of that has changed. The stock gapped lower to open at $22.19 and then plummeted to $19.70 before bouncing today. Volume was very big at 3.1 million compared to the daily average of 600K. The stock was moving lower after news surfaced that rival Tutogen Medical (TTG) maybe producing or preparing to produce some competing products. One news article quoted an analyst from Roth Capital saying the reaction in the stock price today is overdone since concerns about a competitive produce are premature. We have been stopped out at $19.99.

Picked on January 11 at $20.65
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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