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Long Play Updates

Argonaut Group - AGII - close: 35.28 chg: +0.08 stop: 33.80

We don't see any change from our weekend new play description on AGII. The stock didn't move much today and volume was pretty low and that suggests that traders are waiting to hear from the FOMC meeting tomorrow before making any moves. You might want to do the same. We are suggesting longs here over $35.00. Our stop loss will be $33.80. Our short-term target is 38.00-38.50.

Picked on January 29 at $35.20
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand

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Global Power Equip. - GEG - close: 4.73 chg: +0.08 stop: 4.09

Our aggressive, speculative play in GEG is doing okay. The stock dipped to $4.51 this morning but bulls were ready to buy the dip and push GEG back into the green. This looks like a new bullish entry point. However, a glance at the intraday chart looks somewhat worrisome. GEG looks like it could slip lower tomorrow plus we have pretty good odds that the market will see some volatility tomorrow with the Fed decision on interest rates due out tomorrow afternoon. We don't see any changes to our strategy although more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (4.19, 4.38 or even 4.48 look like potential spots for a stop loss). We will target the simple 100-dma currently at 5.54 so we'll use a target zone of $5.40-5.60.

Picked on January 29 at $ 4.65
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 03/13/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.35 chg: +0.31 stop: 17.74

We do not see any change from our weekend update on HELE. We do expect some resistance near the top of the gap in the 19.50-20.00 range but will continue to target the $22.00-22.50 range. Our time frame is ten weeks.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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Mens Wearhouse - MW - close: 34.38 change: -0.26 stop: 31.85

We do not see any change from our weekend update on MW. Watch for a dip, maybe down to the $33 region, before considering new longs. Our target is the $36.00-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the (unconfirmed) February 15th earnings report. We are raising our stop loss to $31.85.

Picked on January 25 at $32.62
Change since picked: + 1.76
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand

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Nordic Am. Tankers - NAT - close: 32.05 chg: +0.30 stop: 29.95

The move over $32.00 today looks like a new bullish entry point to go long NAT. We still expect some resistance from the 100-dma (now at 33.15) but we suspect that NAT will eventually power through it. Do not forget that we only have a few days before we need to exit ahead of the February 7th earnings report and readers may not want to initiate new longs right here.

Picked on January 25 at $31.56
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 191 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 37.85 chg: +0.74 stop: 34.85

Oil service stocks continue to out perform. The OSX index added 2.9% and shares of PTEN followed with a 1.99% gain. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Continental Air. - CAL - close: 19.44 change: +0.95 stop: 19.55

Uh-oh! Our new short play in CAL is in big trouble. Shares of AMR (American Airlines) soared to a 10% gain on Monday on no news. Meanwhile shares of CAL added more than 5% after reporting that its flight attendants had signed a new labor contract. Both moves were probably fueled, at least somewhat, by short covering. It certainly does not make any sense to see airline stocks moving higher with crude oil moving higher since fuel is such a big expense for the sector. We are not suggesting new plays in CAL and honestly from the looks of CAL's chart today we expect to be stopped out tomorrow at $19.55.

Picked on January 29 at $18.49
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 04/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million

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Health Net - HNT - close: 48.74 chg: -0.15 stop: 50.05

We do not see any change from our weekend update on HNT. The stock did not move much today and traders could just be waiting to hear from the FOMC meeting tomorrow. We would not suggest new positions here. We are adjusting our target to the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on January 23 at $48.95
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 958 thousand

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 33.26 change: -0.72 stop: 34.51

MEDI's 2.1% decline on Monday was a welcome sight. The stock has produced a failed rally under resistance and this looks like a new bearish entry point for shorts. Our target is the 200-dma but we're using an exit range of $31.50-31.00.

Picked on January 18 at $33.45
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million

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Travelzoo - TZOO - close: 20.95 change: +0.16 stop: 22.05

We do not see any change from our weekend update on TZOO. We plan to exit ahead of the February 2nd earnings report. That means we plan to exit on Wednesday afternoon near the closing bell.

Picked on January 22 at $21.02
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 309 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Bluelinx - BXC - close: 14.83 change: +0.94 stop: 12.47

We are choosing to exit early in BXC. The trend in the stock has been bullish recently and remains so but we did not expect today's gain nor can we find any catalyst to account for the 6.7% surge on Monday's session. Volume came in well above average and that's bullish as well. However, the FOMC meeting tomorrow and the market's reaction to it is a big unknown variable. We'd rather exit now with BXC so close to our target than risk having the stock reverse on us if traders don't like what they hear from the Fed tomorrow afternoon. We can always watch for a new entry point for new bullish positions later. Our target was a move into the $15.00-15.50 range.

Picked on January 10 at $12.47
Change since picked: + 2.36
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand

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Nexen Inc. - NXY - close: 57.16 change: +1.45 stop: 51.95

Target achieved. Oil stocks continued to rally on Monday and shares of NXY hit a high of $57.73. Our target was the $57.50-58.00 range.

Picked on January 11 at $52.11
Change since picked: + 5.05
Earnings Date 02/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 424 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None Today.

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