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Long Play Updates

Argonaut Group - AGII - close: 34.50 chg: -0.37 stop: 33.99*new*

We have two days left. AGII is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday. We do not want to hold over the report so we plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon near the close. Thus far AGII has maintained its bullish trend but the major averages look vulnerable to more profit taking. Conservative traders might just want to exit early right here to minimize any losses. We're inching our stop loss higher to $33.99. Our short-term target is 38.00-38.50.

Picked on January 29 at $35.20
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand

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Alliance Res. - ARLP - close: 39.63 chg: +0.06 stop: 37.49

Shares of coal-producer ARLP continue to show relative strength but the stock remains under resistance at the $40.00 level and its 200-dma. We are suggesting a trigger to catch a breakout over this resistance. Our trigger to go long is at $40.05. If triggered we will target a rally into the $44.00-45.00 range. Our time frame is eight to tend weeks.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 112 thousand

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CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 36.78 chg: -0.12 stop: 35.18

CEC is struggling to build on its recent bullish breakout. We expected the dip back to the 200-dma and suggested that readers initiate new long positions on the pull back. We suspect that CEC's weakness may be more market related. The stock dipped again on Friday, this time under its 200-dma, but quickly rebounded and was moving higher into the closing bell. We remain bullish on the stock but would hesitate to initiate new plays if the major averages are declining next week. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.44 chg: -0.05 stop: 18.49

HELE appears to be holding up relative well considering the market weakness the past couple of days. We would watch for a dip and a bounce from the $19.00 level as the next bullish entry point. The simple 10-dma, currently near 19.08, should bolster the 19.00 level as support. Our target is the $22.00-22.50 range.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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Mens Wearhouse - MW - close: 32.29 change: -0.63 stop: 31.85

We came very close to deciding on an early exit with MW. The stock has almost completely erased its late January rally. Technical indicators are turning bearish. The only reason we're keeping MW on the list is because shares still have a rising trendline of support (see chart) that is has not violated yet. We are not suggesting new plays but a bounce from the $32.00 level would look like a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to exit now anyway.

Picked on January 25 at $32.62
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand

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Nordic Am. Tankers - NAT - cls: 32.49 chg: +0.84 stop: 31.56*new*

NAT displayed some relative strength on Friday with a 2.65% gain and a bounce from its rising 10-dma. More conservative traders may just want to exit right here. NAT is due to report earnings on Tuesday morning. We plan to avoid the earnings report by exiting on Monday afternoon near the closing bell. We are raising our stop loss to breakeven at $31.56.

Picked on January 25 at $31.56
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 191 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 35.71 chg: -0.54 stop: 34.95 *new*

We strongly considered exiting PTEN this weekend. The oil sector is looking vulnerable to more selling after three days of profit taking. The technicals on PTEN have turned bearish. The only reason we're keeping PTEN on the list is because shares have not yet violated support at the $35.00 level. We are inching up our stop loss to $34.95. We are not suggesting new plays. More conservative traders should consider exiting early right here to minimize losses.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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RC2 Corp. - RCRC - close: 35.60 chg: +0.75 stop: 34.49

RCRC surprised us on Friday with its relative strength. The stock rebounded strongly from its lows and was still climbing into the weekend. We remain on the sidelines with a trigger to go long over resistance at $36.00 and its 200-dma. Our trigger is $36.05. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $39.00-40.00 range but we will plan to exit ahead of its February earnings report.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Nat.Res.Ptnrs - NRP - close: 53.75 change: +0.74 stop: 56.01

Uh-oh! We need to be careful here. NRP traded lower and then sideways for most of the session on Friday. Then without warning there was a surge in volume and shares jolted higher right in the last few minutes of trading without any news. The overall trend remains bearish but NRP could easily bounce back to the 50-dma or the $55 level. We would wait and watch to see where this bounces fails before initiating new bearish positions. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on February 02 at $53.01
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 02/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 79 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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