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Long Play Updates

Argonaut Group - AGII - close: 34.50 chg: -0.00 stop: 33.99

Tomorrow is our last day with AGII. We do not want to hold over the company's earnings report so we plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon near the close.

Picked on January 29 at $35.20
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand

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Alliance Res. - ARLP - close: 40.45 chg: +0.82 stop: 37.49

Breakout! Our play in ARLP is open. The stock pushed through resistance at the 200-dma and the $40.00 level to hit our trigger at $40.05. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. Please note that the rally did stall today near its 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for ARLP to push past the 100-dma before going long.

Picked on February 6 at $40.05
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 01/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 112 thousand

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CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 37.76 chg: +0.98 stop: 35.18

Traders did step in to buy the dip and CEC is hitting new relative highs again. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.20 chg: -0.24 stop: 18.74*new*

HELE has dipped back toward the $19.00 level and its 10-dma. Both should act as short-term support. A bounce from here could be used as a new bullish entry point or a breakout over $19.60. We are adjusting our target to the descending 200-dma (currently 21.22). We'll use a new exit zone of 21.00-21.25. We're also raising the stop loss to $18.74.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 36.75 chg: +1.04 stop: 34.95

Rising tensions over Iran and its nuclear program along with threats to cut off its oil exports had oil stocks rebounding higher today. PTEN bounced but doesn't look very convincing. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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RC2 Corp. - RCRC - close: 35.49 chg: -0.11 stop: 34.49

Traders bought the dip this morning and RCRC almost rebounded back into the green today. We remain on the sidelines with a trigger to go long over resistance at $36.00 and its 200-dma. Our trigger is $36.05. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $39.00-40.00 range but we will plan to exit ahead of its February earnings report.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cendant Corp. - CD - close: 16.00 change: -0.19 stop: 17.01

CD continues to sink on above average volume. We don't see any change from our weekend play description. Our target is the $14.25-14.00 range. Our time frame is pretty quick. CD is due to report earnings on February 13th and we do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on February 05 at $16.19
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 02/13/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million

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Family Dollar Store - FDO - cls: 23.45 change: -0.29 stop: 24.51

Our new short play in FDO is now open. The stock did continue to sink on Monday and violated support at the $23.50 level and its 200-dma. Our trigger to short the stock was at $23.45. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $23.45
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 10.10 change: +0.08 stop: 10.62

Semiconductor stocks bounced pretty strongly today. The SOX index added more than 2%. Shares of FLEX under performed its peers but the strength in the sector makes this a more dangerous play. Traders may want to think twice about shorting FLEX if the SOX is going to rally higher. More conservative traders could wait for a drop under today's low of $9.95 to initiate positions. Our target is the $9.05-9.00 range.

Picked on February 05 at $10.02
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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Nat.Res.Ptnrs - NRP - close: 53.84 change: +0.09 stop: 56.01

Good news! The bounce in NRP failed to produce much of a follow through. Today's action looks like a shallow failed rally. Traders could use this as a new bearish entry point - or if you want more confirmation wait for a drop under $53 again or Friday's low of 52.68. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on February 02 at $53.01
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 02/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 79 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Mens Wearhouse - MW - close: 32.05 change: -0.24 stop: 31.85

We have been stopped out anyway. We considered exiting early with MW's recent weakness but the stock had a steady trendline of support rising up near $32.00. That support was violated intraday and we were stopped out at $31.85.

Picked on January 25 at $32.62
Change since picked: - 0.57
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand

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Nordic Am. Tankers - NAT - cls: 34.34 chg: +1.85 stop: 31.56

A bounce in the oil sectors rubbed off on oil tanker NAT. The stock surged higher and broke out over its 100-dma with strong volume. Shares closed with a 5.6% gain. Our strategy was to exit today near the closing bell to avoid holding over the company's earnings report due out tomorrow morning.

Picked on January 25 at $31.56
Change since picked: + 2.78
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 191 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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