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Long Play Updates

Alliance Res. - ARLP - close: 39.52 chg: -0.93 stop: 37.49

Uh-oh! This looks like trouble. ARLP failed to hold on to its bullish breakout over the $40.00 level yesterday. The stock has produced a failed rally at its 100-dma. Weighing on shares is a pull back across the coal-producing sector. We would not consider new positions until ARLP traded back over $40 and probably wait until the stock hit 40.50 again. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over the 100-dma. If ARLP trades under $38.50 tomorrow you might want to exit early to minimize any losses.

Picked on February 6 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 01/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 112 thousand

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CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 37.38 chg: -0.38 stop: 35.18

CEC is trying to rally higher but the market-wide pull back today dragged it lower again. Watch for a dip back to the 10-dma (near 36.50) as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.35 chg: +0.15 stop: 18.74

HELE managed another bounce from the $19.00 level but it just can't push past resistance in the $19.50-19.60 region. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our current target is the $21.00 level.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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RC2 Corp. - RCRC - close: 35.10 chg: -0.39 stop: 34.49

If RCRC doesn't breakout higher soon we'll drop it as a bullish candidate since the company's earnings report is nearing. Thus far we remain on the sidelines with a trigger to go long over resistance at $36.00 and its 200-dma. Our trigger is $36.05. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $39.00-40.00 range but we will plan to exit ahead of its February earnings report.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cendant Corp. - CD - close: 15.85 change: -0.15 stop: 16.76*new*

CD just posted its fourth loss in a row. We're going to lower our stop loss to $16.76. Our target is the $14.25-14.00 range. Our time frame is pretty quick. CD is due to report earnings on February 13th and we do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on February 05 at $16.19
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 02/13/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million

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Family Dollar Store - FDO - cls: 23.34 change: -0.11 stop: 24.51

We do not see any change from our previous updates. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $23.45
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 10.17 change: +0.07 stop: 10.62

The SOX semiconductor index was the only tech index to close in the green on Tuesday and it did so with only a minor gain. The market looks poised for more selling so watch for a failed rally in FLEX under the $10.50 level and probably closer to the $10.30-10.35 zone. More conservative traders could wait for a drop under Monday's low of $9.95 to initiate positions. Our target is the $9.05-9.00 range.

Picked on February 05 at $10.02
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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Nat.Res.Ptnrs - NRP - close: 52.94 change: -0.90 stop: 56.01

It looks like the entire coal-producing sector was hit by profit taking today. NRP lost 1.6% on average volume. This looks like another entry point for shorts although more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $52.68. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on February 02 at $53.01
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 02/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 79 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Argonaut Group - AGII - close: 34.24 chg: -0.26 stop: 33.99

AGII merely churned sideways above the $34.00 level today in a 40-cent range while investors waited to hear from the company and its earnings report. Our plan was to exit near the closing bell to avoid holding over the report.

Picked on January 29 at $35.20
Change since picked: - 0.96
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 33.63 chg: -3.12 stop: 34.95

Ouch! The profit taking in oil stocks was steep today. The OIX oil index fell 3.2% and the OSX oil services index fell 6.1%. Shares of PTEN were leading the way with an 8.4% drop on big volume. Shares have broken support at $35.00 and its 50-dma. We would have been stopped out at $34.95.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 3.22
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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