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Long Play Updates

CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 37.43 chg: -0.21 stop: 35.18

The rally in CEC is struggling against the weakness in the broader market. Expect a dip to the 10-dma (36.91) and probably back to the 200-dma (36.41). We are raising our stop loss to $35.99. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand

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Dominos Pizza - DPZ - close: 25.85 change: +0.21 stop: 24.45

There is no change from our previous update on DPZ. We are trying to catch a breakout over resistance at $26.00. Our trigger to go long the stock is at $26.16. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $27.85-28.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February 21st earnings report.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 401 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.24 chg: -0.22 stop: 18.95

Once again HELE has dipped to the bottom of its trading range near $19.00 before bouncing higher. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Considering the action in the broader market more conservative traders may just want to exit early. Our current target is the $21.00 level.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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Knightsbridge Tankers - VLCCF - cls: 27.73 chg: +0.16 stop: 25.24

VLCCF is still inching higher. We don't see any change from our previous updates. Our target is the $29.95-30.00 range. Watch out for potential resistance at the 100-dma.

Picked on February 07 at $27.64
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 02/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 206 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Amer. Home Mtg - AHM - close: 28.42 change: +0.41 stop: 29.05

Yesterday's afternoon bounce in AHM continued into today but the stock failed to breakout over resistance at the $29.00 mark. We would not suggest new shorts with AHM above $28.00. Look for another dip under $27.90 to initiate positions. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 range.

Picked on February 08 at $27.89
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 639 thousand

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Family Dollar Store - FDO - cls: 23.61 change: -0.01 stop: 24.51

Traders could use a move under $23.50 or under $23.20, the latter of which would be a new one-month low, as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $23.45
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 10.08 change: -0.08 stop: 10.55

The SOX semiconductor index appeared to produce a failed rally today. That's good news for our short play in FLEX. If the SOX continues lower tomorrow then FLEX will probably try and breakdown under the $10.00 mark. Traders could open shorts here but we'd feel more comfortable waiting for a decline under $9.95. Our target is the $9.05-9.00 range.

Picked on February 05 at $10.02
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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Liz Claiborne - LIZ - close: 34.23 change: +0.47 stop: 34.75

There was barely any follow through on LIZ's intraday bounce from Wednesday. That's positive for our bearish play. Look for a new decline under $33.50 before initiating new shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range.

Picked on February 07 at $33.45
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 661 thousand

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Nat.Res.Ptnrs - NRP - cls: 51.26 chg: -0.78 stop: 55.01 *new*

The sell-off in NRP is picking up speed. We are lowering our stop loss to $55.01. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on February 02 at $53.01
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 02/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 79 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Alliance Res. - ARLP - close: 38.45 chg: -0.94 stop: 37.49

We are suggesting that bulls abandon ship here with ARLP. The stock produced a bearish failed rally near $40.00 and its 200-dma today. We would rather jump out now and minimize our losses. There will always be another opportunity to consider new bullish positions later. A breakdown under the late January low will look like a bearish entry point for a move toward $35.00.

Picked on February 6 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 01/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 112 thousand

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RC2 Corp. - RCRC - close: 35.33 chg: +0.09 stop: 34.49

We were slowly running out of time with RCRC and today's news pushed our decision to exit early. The FDA issued a warning that teething rings, made by The First Years, a division of RCRC, may be infected with bacteria that could be dangerous to infants. The stock dropped intraday on the news but managed to rebound. Our strategy was to go long on a breakout over $36.00. Our trigger was $36.05. The play was never opened so we're dropping RCRC as a candidate. We would not want to hold over the earnings report expected next week.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Cendant Corp. - CD - close: 15.96 change: +0.11 stop: 16.76

We have been stopped out of our short play in CD at $16.76. News of an 11-cent cash dividend that was then followed up with news that a former Cendant chairman's court case ended in a mistrial appeared to spur a big oversold bounce in the stock. Volume came in above average on the bounce.

Picked on February 05 at $16.19
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 02/13/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million
 

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