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Long Play Updates

Amer.Phys.Cap. - ACAP - close: 49.01 change: -0.46 stop: 46.75

The markets took a break on Friday and shares of ACAP pulled back from resistance at the $50.00 level. We don't see any changes from our original play description from Thursday night so we're reposting it here:

The IUX insurance sector index may not be moving much lately but some of the individual issues look poised to do well. Shares of ACAP have been consolidating for the last five months after peaking near the $50.00 level. Today the stock made another breakout attempt after reporting earnings that bested estimates by 16 cents a share. The volume behind today's move was more than double the daily average. Short-term technical oscillators are bullish and its MACD just produced a new buy signal. Meanwhile the P&F chart shows a buy signal with a $91 target. We are going to suggest a trigger to go long at $50.61, which is above the September high. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $54.85-55.00 range.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 53 thousand


CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 37.96 chg: +0.21 stop: 36.99*new*

Change of plans! CEC has updated its earnings release date and the company plans to announce after the closing bell on Tuesday, February 21st. We do not want to hold over the report. That means we need to exit on Tuesday before the closing bell. We will try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $36.99.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 02/21/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand


Claires Store - CLE - close: 31.73 change: -0.70 stop: 29.99

We recently suggested that readers look for a dip in CLE before considering new long positions. The stock offered us a dip on Friday but we would wait to see if shares begin to bounce first before initiating new plays. If the stock continues to consolidate lower then we'd watch for the $31.00 level to act as the next level of support. Our target is the $33.90-34.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $42 target.

Picked on February 14 at $32.00
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 697 thousand


Curtiss Wright - CW - close: 62.83 chg: +1.73 stop: 59.90*new*

Shares of CW continue to show relative strength following Thursday's bullish breakout over resistance. We were triggered on Thursday at $60.35. The stock added another 2.8% on Friday with volume coming in above the daily average, which is another bullish clue. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise the stop loss to $59.90. Our target is the $63.95-64.00 range.

Picked on February 16 at $ 60.35
Change since picked: + 2.48
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 76 thousand


LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 34.71 chg: -0.66 stop: 33.93

ERICY did not escape the profit taking on Friday and shares lost 1.8% but volume came in pretty low suggesting a lack of real strength behind the selling. Readers can use a bounce from $34.50 (short-term support) or a bounce from $34.00, which would be stronger support bolstered by the rising 200-dma, as a new bullish entry point to initiate longs. Our target is the $36.75-37.00 range.

Picked on February 14 at $34.61
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million


Foster Wheeler - FWLT - close: 48.90 chg: +0.75 stop: 45.35

We have been triggered in FWLT. This is a new momentum play from Thursday night and we were suggesting a trigger to go long at $48.65 to confirm the recent bounce. As long as the major indices don't crash then FWLT stands a chance to retest its highs from earlier in the month. Short-term technicals are certainly bullish although we would have felt more confident if FWLT's current bounce had stronger volume behind it. Should the stock see any weakness watch the $46.00 level to act as immediate support. Our target is the $53.70-55.00 range.

Picked on February 17 at $48.65
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 03/13/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 900 thousand


Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.96 chg: -0.23 stop: 19.45

Last week was a bullish week for HELE. The stock broke out from its $19.00-19.60 trading range. Friday's pull back isn't so surprising since shares were probably due for a little bit of consolidation. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target has been the declining simple 200-dma. Currently the 200-dma is at 20.83. Since this is a moving target we are planning an exit in the $20.75-20.85 zone but keep in mind that we may need to adjust it lower.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand


Novell Inc. - NOVL - close: 9.50 change: +0.24 stop: 8.99

The semiconductor sector index, the SOX, was one of the worst performers in the technology group on Friday. A price target downgrade for Intel (INTC) weighed heavily on the group. The pattern in NOVL remains bullish with its rising channel. A bounce from $9.20 or the 50-dma near $9.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $10.25 mark but we plan to exit ahead of NOVL's early March earnings report.

Picked on February 14 at $ 9.30
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 03/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million


TASER Intl. - TASR - close: 10.18 change: -0.06 close: 9.85*new*

Time is running out for bullish play in TASR. The company is due to report earnings on the morning of February 22nd. We do not want to hold over the report. We plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon at the closing bell. Therefore we're not suggesting new positions. The $10.00 level should act as support and considering our time frame we are raising our stop loss to $9.85.

Picked on February 13 at $10.05
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 02/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million


Unisys - UIS - close: 6.87 change: +0.06 stop: 6.25

Technical traders will note that volume has been way above average for the last two days of gains and that's bullish for UIS. We do not see any change from our play description from Thursday night so we are reposting it here:

The rebound in UIS continues. About four weeks ago UIS broke out above technical resistance at its simple 020-dma and it also broke out above its long-term trendline of resistance (see chart). Now after a month of consolidating sideways it looks like UIS is ready to take the next step higher. We are suggesting long positions at current levels although more conservative traders might want to wait for a little more confirmation and a move over $6.85 or even the $7.00 level. Our short-term target is a move into the $7.40-7.50 range. We'll put our stop loss under the recent low. More aggressive traders may want to consider a longer-term position and a higher target.

Picked on February 16 at $ 6.81
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million

Short Play Updates

Ebay Inc. - EBAY - close: 41.31 change: -0.46 stop: 42.01

We are not out of the woods yet. EBAY has so far produced a failed rally under resistance at the $42.00 level. We would watch for a new decline under the $40.00 mark (and its 200-dma) as a new bearish entry point to short the stock. Currently our target is the $36.00-35.75 range. Chart readers will also note a new danger. The weekly chart has produced a new bullish engulfing candlestick. Over the last year EBAY has done this more than once at the end of a consolidation and each one proved to be the bullish reversal it suggested. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit right now. We suspect that if the NASDAQ can rally over the 2300 level then odds are good that EBAY will stop us out at 42.01.

Picked on February 09 at $39.53
Change since picked: + 1.78
Earnings Date 01/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.9 million

Closed Long Plays

Dominos Pizza - DPZ - close: 26.29 change: -0.03 stop: 25.94

There was some profit taking in DPZ on Friday morning but traders bought the dip and pushed the stock almost back to unchanged by the closing bell. We had raised our stop loss on Thursday so the intraday weakness on Friday stopped us out at $25.94. We had planned to exit on Friday afternoon anyway to avoid holding over the earnings report. DPZ is expected to report earnings on Tuesday morning with analyst expectations at 42-cents a share.

Picked on February 13 at $26.16
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 02/21/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 401 thousand

Closed Short Plays

Oregon Steel - OS - close: 36.99 change: +0.59 stop: 37.55

We tried to limit our risk on Thursday by tightening our stop loss to $37.55. The rebound in the steel stocks continued on Friday and we were stopped out pretty early in the morning. There rebound in the group looks pretty widespread. We wouldn't be surprised to see OS and other stocks in the industry make another attempt at their recent highs.

Picked on February 09 at $36.99
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 870 thousand

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