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Long Play Updates

Amer. Campus Comm. - ACC - close: 27.75 chg: -0.06 stop: 25.49

REIT stocks continue to look bullish but the trading in ACC seems to be growing more volatile and that might indicate a short-term top. Shares of ACC did hit a new high on Friday morning but failed to hold it gains and closed negative. We would hesitate to open new long positions at this time. Watch for a dip toward the simple 10-dma near 26.75 as a new bullish entry point or if that level fails then look for a bounce near $26.25. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. Our time frame is about eight weeks. FYI: We are still watching REIT stock Archstone (ASN), which looks strong. Watch for a pull back toward $48.50 in ASN, which might be a new entry point for longs.

Picked on March 15 at $27.11
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand


Aeropostale - ARO - close: 31.13 change: +0.53 stop: 29.99

The RLX retail index broke out over significant resistance three days ago and the group continues to look bullish. Shares of ARO are finally beginning to catch up with its peers. ARO broke out over resistance at the $31.00 level on Friday with volume coming in well above its daily average, which is a bullish signal. Our trigger to go long the stock was at $31.21 so the play is now open. However, ARO did pull back from its highs in spite of a bullish market and a bullish RLX index. Traders might want to wait for signs of a bounce on Monday before jumping into new positions. Our target is the $33.95-34.50 range.

Picked on March 17 at $31.21
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


BE Aerospace - BEAV - close: 24.66 change: +0.09 stop: 22.95

The longer-term upward trend remains in place but short-term BEAV's momentum has stalled under resistance at the $25.00 level. Short-term technical oscillators like the RSI and stochastics are starting to hook into bearish patterns. Meanwhile the daily chart's MACD indicator is very close to a new buy signal. We're going to keep the play open for now but we're not suggesting new long positions at the moment. A bounce from $24.00 or the 50-dma near $23 can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $26.00-26.50 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on March 12 at $24.25
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 05/05/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 800 thousand


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - cls: 34.16 chg: +0.30 stop: 32.45

Technicals are mostly positive for HPQ and its MACD on the daily chart has produced a new buy signal. The stock has rebounded back toward its February and March highs. The new challenge will be breaking out past $34.50. This doesn't look like a good spot to consider new long positions. Our target is the $35.00-35.50 range.

Picked on February 22 at $32.94
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.5 million


IAC/InterActive - IACI - close: 30.69 chg: -0.55 stop: 28.99

IACI under performed the market and its peers in the Internet sector on Friday. The stock lost 1.7% and we cannot find the news or catalyst to explain why. It could just be profit taking after a generally bullish week. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Wait and watch to see if IACI bounces from the $30.00-30.25 region. A bounce there could be used as a new entry point. Our target for IACI is the $32.90-33.00 range.

Picked on March 03 at $30.31
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 02/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million


Synopsys - SNPS - close: 22.11 change: -0.13 stop: 21.74

We continue to urge caution with SNPS. Thursday's move was a bearish reversal following Wednesday's breakout. The stock does still have rising support at its simple 50-dma (near 21.90) and a bounce from the 50-dma could be used as a new bullish entry point. Traders should double-check their stop loss placement. Our target is the $24.40-24.50 range.

Picked on March 02 at $22.49
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

Short Play Updates

Baidu.com - BIDU - close: 49.02 change: +0.70 stop: 52.11

Shares of BIDU turned higher on Friday. The company announced that they had signed an alliance with Nokia (NOK) to have some of BIDU's search services accessible from some NOK phones. Shares of BIDU spiked higher toward the $50 level and then reversed course. We remain bearish on BIDU but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock has found support near $48.00 over the last week. We would wait for a decline under $48.00 before considering new short positions. Remember that this is a high-risk, aggressive play due to BIDU's volatility. We are going to target the $41.00-40.00 range. More conservative traders might want to exit near the February lows (around $44).

Picked on March 09 at $ 48.32
Change since picked: + 0.70
Earnings Date 05/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 788 thousand


Crown Castle Intl. - CCI - close: 29.10 chg: -0.15 stop: 31.01

CCI has continued to show relative weakness and now the stock has closed under its February low. Now that shares have broken their bullish trend we believe that CCI will consolidate toward the 200-dma. There is potential support at the 100-dma near 28.45. Our target is the $26.25-26.00 range.

Picked on March 15 at $29.36
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


Hilton Hotels - HLT - close: 23.94 chg: +0.40 stop: 24.06

HLT's oversold bounce has now reached its fourth day in a row and shares have definitely broken their two-month downtrend. We are not suggesting new short plays and traders should be planning their exit. If the stock doesn't reverse here under $24.00 we'll be stopped out at $24.06. More conservative traders may just want to exit early right now.

Picked on March 02 at $23.98
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Hovnanian - HOV - close: 46.90 change: +1.23 stop: 46.11

Some positive comments coming from William Lyon Homes (WLS) about trying to go private helped fuel another day of gains for the homebuilders. Shares of HOV responded positively and gapped higher to open at $46.35, which was above our stop loss at $46.11. We should have been immediately stopped out. It is interesting to note that the rally today stalled at the declining 50-dma.

Picked on March 05 at $44.85
Change since picked: + 2.05
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 972 thousand


Officemax - OMX - close: 29.58 chg: +0.36 stop: 29.41

Another day of market gains helped propel the rebound in OMX. The stock spiked to $29.99 before paring its gains. We would have been stopped out at $29.41.

Picked on March 14 at $28.69
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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