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Long Play Updates

Bldg Materials - BMHC - close: 35.35 chg: -0.28 stop: 34.99

We continue to be in danger of BMHC breaking down below support at the $35.00 level and stopping us out. We're not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to think about an early exit.

Picked on April 06 at $38.29
Change since picked: - 2.94
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 869 thousand

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Digital Realty - DLR - close: 28.27 chg: -0.18 stop: 26.90

The technical picture continues to worsen for DLR. Shares appeared to have gapped down and opened at $27.50 this morning before immediately rebounding back toward the $28.25 region. It may just be a bad tick. We are still not suggesting new bullish positions at this time but we would consider a bounce from the rising 50-dma as a new entry point to go long. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $28.04
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 05/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand

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Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.85 chg: +0.05 stop: 19.95

LBTYA produced a bit of a bounce today but the stock remains under technical resistance at its simple 100-dma. Volume was low today suggesting a lack of conviction behind the buyers. Our target is the $21.95-22.25 range.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Nordson Corp. - NDSN - close: 49.07 chg: -0.02 stop: 47.45

NDSN is still consolidating sideways under resistance at the $50 level. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stops toward $48.00. Our target is the $53.00-53.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $49.25
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 05/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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Oil States Intl. - OIS - close: 37.68 chg: -0.59 stop: 35.75

The technical picture for OIS is also growing worse. The stock lost another 1.5% and closed under its simple 10-dma. The oil sector was beset with profit taking after the latest oil inventory numbers showed eight-year highs. Crude oil slipped back under $69/bbl in spite of the growing tension with Iran. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to lock in some profits. The next level of significant support is the $36.00 region. Our target is the $41.00-42.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 1.63
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 777 thousand

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QuickLogic - QUIK - close: 6.24 chg: -0.02 stop: 5.45

QUIK experienced some profit taking this morning but traders were quick to buy the dip and the stock closed with a minor loss. We see no change from our previous updates. Readers need to decide if they are willing to lock in profits here or decide to weather the ups and downs with the expectation that QUIK will continue higher. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. Our target is the $6.95-7.25 range.

Picked on April 02 at $ 5.74
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand

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Trident Micro. - TRID - 28.54 chg: -0.14 stop: 27.90

This does not bode well for the bulls. TRID continues to slip lower toward rising technical support at its simple 50-dma. The technical picture has already turned bearish. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the mid April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $30.50
Change since picked: - 1.96
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - close: 39.82 chg: +0.41 stop: 41.31

AAP produced an oversold bounce after yesterday's technical breakdown. Watch for a failed rally under $40.00 or the exponential 200-dma (near 40.50) as a new bearish entry points to short the stock. We are going to target a decline into the $36.00-35.50 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

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Americredit - ACF - close: 30.30 chg: +0.14 stop: 30.65

There is no change from our Tuesday night new play description. We are suggesting a trigger to short ACF at $29.49. If we are triggered then we'll target a drop toward the 200-dma in the $26.75-26.00 range. We only have a couple of weeks for ACF to hit our trigger and then reach our target as we do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report. FYI: alternatively if ACF rallies past the $31.00 level traders might want to consider short-term bullish positions. Please note that short-interest is relatively high in ACF and that raises the level of risk for this play. The latest data puts short interest at 13% of its 127 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Aeropostale - ARO - close: 28.30 chg: -0.09 stop: 29.05

We see no change from last night's new play description. We're going to set a trigger to short the stock at $27.69. This is under support in the $27.75-28.00 range. If triggered then we'll target a decline to the $24.00 level. In the meantime nimble traders who can jump in and jump out quickly might want to try and play any bounce from the $28.00 level and exit near $31, which is near the top of its trading range. Please note that shorting ARO might be riskier than you'd expect. The latest data puts short interest at 8.1% of its 50.3 million-share float. This provides an opportunity for a short-squeeze.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Compania Min.Buen. - BVN - close: 25.05 chg: +0.61 stop: 26.31

Gold stocks managed a bounce today. Rising tensions with Iran and the west helped push gold futures back above $600 an ounce. The XAU gold & silver index rallied 2.4%. BVN added almost 2.5%. We remain bearish on BVN. We are going to aim for the $21.00-20.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to an $18 target. We do not want to hold over the April 27th (unconfirmed) earnings report. There doesn't appear to be any data available about BVN's short interest.

Picked on April 11 at $24.44
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 818 thousand

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Entercom - ETM - close: 27.80 chg: +0.11 stop: 28.51

There is no change from our new play description on ETM. We want to catch any breakdown under $27.50 so we're suggesting a trigger to short ETM at $27.45. If triggered we will target a decline into the $25.50-25.25 range, which was support back in late 2000. Currently the P&F chart for ETM points to a $20.00 target so more aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Please note that short interest is currently around 8.7% of its 32.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand

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Modine Mfg. - MOD - close: 28.02 chg: +0.29 stop: 30.01

MOD produced an oversold bounce today and shares closed back above the $28.00 level but not above technical resistance at the 50-dma or the bottom of its broken channel. This may be a new entry point for shorts but we'd watch for the bounce to roll over (fail) under $28.50 before initiating positions. We are suggesting that traders only start new plays with MOD under $28.00. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the action over the past three months looks like a big bear flag pattern. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. More conservative traders might want to consider putting their stop near $29.00 instead of $30.00.

Picked on April 11 at $27.73
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 230 thousand

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Newport Corp. - NEWP - close: 17.91 chg: +0.19 stop: 18.55

There is no change from our Tuesday night new play description on NEWP. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $17.45. If triggered we are going to target a decline into the $16.25-16.00 range. However, we do expect some support near the 100-dma (16.50). The H&S pattern is suggesting a target in the 15.20 region. If triggered this will be a short-term play. We do not want to hold over the April 26th earnings report. The latest data lists short interest at 5.2% of its 36.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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SAFECO - SAFC - close: 50.01 change: +0.37 stop: 52.01

SAFC tried to breakout over its descending trendline of resistance and its 10-dma today but failed. That's the good news. The bad news is that shares were bouncing again late this afternoon and look ready to climb higher tomorrow. We have been warning readers to expect a bounce back toward the $51 region but such a move will start to look like a new bullish entry point and it will turn short-term oscillators bullish. More conservative traders should closely monitor their stop losses. We'd prefer to not launch new short positions with shares above the $50 level. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $ 49.84
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 755 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

N.Y.Times - NYT - close: 25.22 change: +0.09 stop: 25.61

Time has run out and our plan was to exit today near the closing bell to avoid holding over tomorrow's earnings report. NYT is due to report earnings tomorrow morning and Wall Street is looking for profits of 27-cents a share.

Picked on March 22 at $25.55
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 04/13/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
 

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