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Long Play Updates

Digital Realty - DLR - close: 28.34 chg: +0.07 stop: 26.90

Unfortunately, we have little to report on for DLR. The stock has consolidated sideways for the last two weeks. Most of that has been above the $28.00 level, which can be considered bullish. The technical picture is mixed and we don't like the daily chart's MACD nearing a new sell signal. Yet the longer-term pattern is still a bullish, rising channel and DLR has technical support at its rising 50-dma. DLR should find short-term support in the $27.00-27.50 region. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $28.04
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 05/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand

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Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.93 chg: +0.08 stop: 19.95

Shares of LBTYA are still consolidating sideways and if you look at the chart long enough it starts to look like a bull flag pattern. Unfortunately, volume has been pretty low the last couple of days so it's tough to put much faith in the recent trading. Overall the pattern is still one of a bullish breakout from a multi-month bearish channel. The current challenge for the bulls is to push LBTYA past technical resistance at the 100-dma, which has been a lid on the stock for the past week. Our target is the $21.95-22.25 range. We do not want to hold the position over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Nordson Corp. - NDSN - close: 49.01 chg: -0.06 stop: 47.75*new*

There isn't much change in NDSN. The stock is still consolidating sideways under resistance at $50.00 but above rising support at its simple 50-dma. The P&F chart is bullish with a $66 target. We remain bullish with NDSN above the 50-dma but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $50.00 before considering new long positions. Our target is the $53.00-53.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report. Please note we are changing the stop loss to $47.75.

Picked on March 29 at $49.25
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 05/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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Oil States Intl. - OIS - close: 37.50 chg: -0.18 stop: 35.75

OIS continues to consolidate lower and the next stop appears to be the $36.00 region, which was support in late March and early April. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time especially now that the technical picture is deteriorating. However, we will be watching for a bounce from $36.00 as a potential entry point. Next time, if we get a bounce near $36.00, it may be prudent to exit near the $40 level. Currently our target is the $41-42 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 777 thousand

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QuickLogic - QUIK - close: 6.27 chg: +0.03 stop: 5.74 *new*

We don't see much change from our Wednesday update. Traders have a choice: exit now for a gain or hope the rally continues. We feel that stocks in general might improve next week but shares of QUIK remain short-term overbought and could suffer a sell-off at any time. Thus we're not suggesting new bullish positions. Our target is the $6.95-7.25 range. We are going to adjust our stop loss to breakeven at $5.74. Please note that we plan to exit ahead of the April 26th earnings report.

Picked on April 02 at $ 5.74
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - close: 39.83 chg: +0.01 stop: 41.31

AAP tried to breakout over the $40.00 level and failed again on Thursday. If you recall the stock broke down below multiple levels of support on Tuesday after news hit that Home Depot might become competition in the auto parts market. We remain bearish but traders may want to wait for a stronger failed rally under support in the $40.00-40.50 region (under the exponential 200-dma) before starting shorts. We are going to target a decline into the $36.00-35.50 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

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Americredit - ACF - close: 30.45 chg: +0.15 stop: 30.65

We remain on the sidelines with ACF as a bearish candidate. The stock has pulled back toward support at the bottom edge of its rising channel. Some of the technical indicators suggested ACF might breakdown this time. We are suggesting a trigger to short ACF at $29.49. If we are triggered then we'll target a drop toward the 200-dma in the $26.75-26.00 range. We only have a couple of weeks for ACF to hit our trigger and then reach our target as we do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report. FYI: alternatively if ACF rallies past the $31.00 level traders might want to consider short-term bullish positions. Please note that short-interest is relatively high in ACF and that raises the level of risk for this play. The latest data puts short interest at 13% of its 127 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Aeropostale - ARO - close: 28.21 chg: -0.09 stop: 29.05

ARO continues to slip lower toward support and the stock did trade under the $28.00 level briefly. However, we remain on the sidelines. Our plan is to catch a breakdown under support, which is the $27.75-28.00 range. Our trigger is at $27.69. If triggered then we'll target a decline to the $24.00 level. In the meantime nimble traders who can jump in and jump out quickly might want to try and play any bounce from the $28.00 level and exit near $31, which is near the top of its trading range. Please note that shorting ARO might be riskier than you'd expect. The latest data puts short interest at 8.1% of its 50.3 million-share float. This provides an opportunity for a short-squeeze.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Compania Min.Buen. - BVN - close: 24.33 chg: -0.72 stop: 26.31

Gold futures are still hovering around $600 an ounce but that did not stop BVN from continuing its recent sell-off. The technical picture for BVN is bearish with the MACD nearing a new sell signal after the recent failed rally. We are suggesting shorts with the stock under $25.00. Our target is the $21.00-20.00 range but please note we have a short-term time frame. We do not want to hold over the April 27th (unconfirmed) earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $24.44
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 818 thousand

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Entercom - ETM - close: 27.83 chg: +0.03 stop: 28.51

Radio-related stocks remain a weak spot in the market but short-term ETM is trying to bounce from support near $27.50. We want to catch any breakdown under $27.50 so we're suggesting a trigger to short ETM at $27.45. If triggered we will target a decline into the $25.50-25.25 range, which was support back in late 2000. Currently the P&F chart for ETM points to a $20.00 target so more aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Please note that short interest is currently around 8.7% of its 32.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand

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Modine Mfg. - MOD - close: 27.85 chg: -0.17 stop: 29.05*new*

Good news! MOD produced a failed rally under $28.50 and near technical resistance at its 50-dma on Thursday. Shares closed back under the $28.00 level. That's exactly what we described as our suggested entry point to short the stock. MOD looks poised to move lower next week. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the action over the past three months looks like a big bear flag pattern. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $29.05.

Picked on April 11 at $27.73
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 230 thousand

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Newport Corp. - NEWP - close: 17.91 chg: +0.00 stop: 18.55

Aggressive traders might want to consider new shorts in NEWP right here. The stock's oversold bounce is struggling near the $18.00 level. Our strategy is to catch a breakdown below $17.50. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $17.45. If triggered we are going to target a decline into the $16.25-16.00 range. However, we do expect some support near the 100-dma (16.50). The H&S pattern is suggesting a target in the 15.20 region. If triggered this will be a short-term play. We do not want to hold over the April 26th earnings report. The latest data lists short interest at 5.2% of its 36.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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SAFECO - SAFC - close: 49.32 change: -0.69 stop: 51.05 *new*

The outlook for our short in SAFC just improved. The stock produced a failed rally at the 10-dma on Thursday. The session also produced a new bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would use the move under $50 as a new bearish entry point to start new plays. We are also going to lower our stop loss to $51.05. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $ 49.84
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 755 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Bldg Materials - BMHC - close: 35.32 chg: -0.03 stop: 34.99

Shares of BMHC spiked lower on Thursday morning and broke support at the $35.00 level. We would have been stopped out at $34.99. The short-term forecast doesn't look very good. BMHC managed an intraday bounce but it failed near $36.00 and short-term look bearish.

Picked on April 06 at $38.29
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 869 thousand

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Trident Micro. - TRID - 28.01 chg: -0.53 stop: 27.90

We have been cautious during the recent pull back in TRID and for good reason. The stock's technical picture has worsened and volume has been slightly above average during the last few days suggesting that someone is getting out. Overall the pattern remains bullish for TRID but even the weekly chart's momentum has stalled and is now suggesting a sharper decline is around the corner. The MACD is showing a bearish divergence with the stock's trend of highs over the past several weeks. Traders might want to consider bearish positions if TRID trades under $27.50. We have been stopped out at $27.90 during Thursday's spike under the $28 level.

Picked on March 26 at $30.50
Change since picked: - 2.49
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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