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Long Play Updates

Digital Realty - DLR - close: 28.19 chg: -0.15 stop: 26.90

There is no change from our weekend update. Although we do see that the daily chart's MACD is nearing a new sell signal. It may be time to look for a dip back toward the simple 50-dma. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $28.04
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 05/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand

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Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.55 chg: -0.38 stop: 19.95

It was a somewhat volatile day for shares of LBTYA but the stock produced yet another failed rally at the simple 100-dma today. This is not good news for the bulls and traders might want to consider an early exit right here to protect their capital. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. We do not want to hold the position over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Nordson Corp. - NDSN - close: 49.46 chg: +0.45 stop: 47.75

NDSN displayed some relative strength today. The stock added 0.9% and is nearing resistance at the $50.00 level again. We remain bullish with NDSN above the 50-dma but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $50.00 before considering new long positions. Our target is the $53.00-53.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report. Please note we are changing the stop loss to $47.75.

Picked on March 29 at $49.25
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 05/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 29.92 chg: +1.00 stop: 26.45

It was a strong start to the week for PWEI. Shares added 3.45% and closed near its previous highs. Readers can choose to chase it here or look for a potential dip back toward $28.50-29.00. We are going to suggest long positions with PWEI above $28.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a trade over the $30.00 level or the high at $30.35 before initiating positions. Our target will be the $33.50-34.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

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Oil States Intl. - OIS - close: 38.89 chg: +1.39 stop: 35.75

The world oil markets continue to fret over Iran's refusal to obey the U.N.'s request to halt uranium enrichment. This geo-political turmoil helped push crude to more than $70 a barrel. OIS responded today with a 3.7% rally. More conservative traders may want to exit near $40.00! Currently our target is the $41-42 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 2.84
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 777 thousand

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QuickLogic - QUIK - close: 6.31 chg: +0.04 stop: 5.74

We do not see any change from our weekend update. QUIK continues to inch higher and defy gravity after its impressive breakout a few weeks ago. Today's gain is a show of strength in the face of a 1.48% sell-off in the semiconductor index. We're not suggesting new bullish positions. Our target is the $6.95-7.25 range. Please note that we plan to exit ahead of the April 26th earnings report. More conservative traders may want to exit right now for a gain.

Picked on April 02 at $ 5.74
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand

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Threshold Pharma. - THLD - close: 16.52 chg: +0.46 stop: 14.49

THLD added another 2.8% today on above average volume, which should confirm Friday's breakout over major resistance. Shares spiked to $17.00 this morning and drifted back to $15.84 before traders jumped in to buy the dip. We suggested a possible pull back into the $15.50-15.70 region but THLD never made it that low. Our target is the $17.95-18.25 range only because we do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Traders with a longer-term time frame may want to aim higher. Remember, that any time you trade a biotech/drug company there is always an increased risk of headline news. A failed test or clinical trial or FDA rejection could send the stock gapping lower. Or the opposite could happen and good news could send shares soaring.

Picked on April 16 at $16.06
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 384 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - close: 39.38 chg: -0.45 stop: 41.31

Friday's action now looks like a failed rally near $40.00 with today's follow through lower. However, more conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under today's low near $39.00 before shorting the stock. We are going to target a decline into the $36.00-35.50 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

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Americredit - ACF - close: 30.50 chg: +0.05 stop: 30.65

There is no change from our weekend update on ACF. We remain on the sidelines. We are suggesting a trigger to short ACF at $29.49. If we are triggered then we'll target a drop toward the 200-dma in the $26.75-26.00 range. We only have a couple of weeks for ACF to hit our trigger and then reach our target as we do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report. FYI: alternatively if ACF rallies past the $31.00 level traders might want to consider short-term bullish positions. Please note that short-interest is relatively high in ACF and that raises the level of risk for this play. The latest data puts short interest at 13% of its 127 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Aeropostale - ARO - close: 28.50 chg: +0.29 stop: 29.05

There are no surprises here. Traders bought the dip back toward support near the bottom of ARO's trading range. However, this time the support was bolstered by its 100-dma. We do find it interesting that the morning rally stalled near $29.00. Our plan is to catch a breakdown under support, which is the $27.75-28.00 range. Our trigger is at $27.69. If triggered then we'll target a decline to the $24.00 level. In the meantime nimble traders who can jump in and jump out quickly might want to try and play any bounce from the $28.00 level and exit near $31, which is near the top of its trading range. Please note that shorting ARO might be riskier than you'd expect. The latest data puts short interest at 8.1% of its 50.3 million-share float. This provides an opportunity for a short-squeeze.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Compania Min.Buen. - BVN - close: 24.33 chg: -0.72 stop: 26.31

Uh-oh! This play may not be for the faint of heart. We specifically stated that any event in the U.S.-Iran stand-off over Iran's nuclear ambitions could cause gold to rise. It looks like the recent rhetoric is doing the job just fine. Gold spiked to a new 25-year high over $600 an ounce. We are not suggesting new bearish positions and conservative traders may want to exit right now to limit their losses or at least inch down their stop loss closer to the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the April 27th (unconfirmed) earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $24.44
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 818 thousand

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Entercom - ETM - close: 27.67 chg: -0.16 stop: 28.51

ETM almost hit our trigger today but the stock bounced from support near the $27.50 level. We want to catch a breakdown under support at $27.50 and we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $27.45. If triggered we will target a decline into the $25.50-25.25 range, which was support back in late 2000. Currently the P&F chart for ETM points to a $20.00 target so more aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Please note that short interest is currently around 8.7% of its 32.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand

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Modine Mfg. - MOD - close: 27.92 chg: +0.07 stop: 29.05

Unfortunately, MOD is not producing any sort of follow through on its recent failed rally near the 50-dma. Actually the stock tried to rally again this morning but thankfully shares ran out of momentum again. Traders might want to wait for a move under $27.50 before initiating positions. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the action over the past three months looks like a big bear flag pattern. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $29.05.

Picked on April 11 at $27.73
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 230 thousand

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Newport Corp. - NEWP - close: 17.70 chg: -0.21 stop: 18.55

NEWP dipped under support at $17.50 on an intraday basis but failed to hit our trigger to short the stock at $17.45. Thus we remain on the sidelines. More aggressive traders might want to consider a riskier entry point with a failed rally in the $17.90-18.00 region. If triggered at 17.45 we are going to target a decline into the $16.25-16.00 range. We do expect some support near the 100-dma (16.50). The H&S pattern is suggesting a target in the 15.20 region. If triggered this will be a short-term play. We do not want to hold over the April 26th earnings report. The latest data lists short interest at 5.2% of its 36.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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SAFECO - SAFC - close: 49.12 change: -0.20 stop: 51.05

SAFC continues to sink and is trading near a new one-year low. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $ 49.84
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 755 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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