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Long Play Updates

Digital Realty - DLR - close: 29.23 chg: +1.04 stop: 26.90

The market's biggest one-day rally in almost a year helped DLR breakout over resistance and close at new highs. Volume came in above average, which is another bullish sign. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $28.04
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 05/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand

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Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.85 chg: +0.30 stop: 19.95

Be careful here. LBTYA did add 1.45% today but volume was light and shares remain stuck under technical resistance at the 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to think about an early exit or a tighter stop loss. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We do not want to hold the position over the early May earnings report. Our target is currently $21.95.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Nordson Corp. - NDSN - close: 51.60 chg: +2.14 stop: 47.75

NDSN was one of the big winners today. The stock added 4.3% and broke out over resistance at the $50.00 level. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new buy signal. Our target is the $53.00-53.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $49.25
Change since picked: + 2.35
Earnings Date 05/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 30.50 chg: +0.58 stop: 26.45

PWEI continues to march higher and shares closed at another new all-time high today. At this time we don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target will be the $33.50-34.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

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Oil States Intl. - OIS - close: 40.12 chg: +1.23 stop: 36.85*new*

It's time for readers to make a decision on OIS again. The soaring price of crude oil helped OIS add more than 3% today and the stock is now trading just over resistance at the $40.00 level. Do you exit here for a gain or hang on and aim for our target in the $41.00-41.00 range. We are going to keep the play open and raise our stop loss to $36.85.

Picked on March 29 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 4.07
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 777 thousand

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QuickLogic - QUIK - close: 6.00 chg: -0.31 stop: 5.74

Uh-oh! QUIK's relative strength has vanished. The SOX semiconductor index lead the tech sectors higher with a 3.4% gain today yet QUIK fell the opposite direction with a 4.9% loss. We cannot find any specific news to account for the loss. Volume was above average on the sell-off, which is bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here before we're stopped out at $5.74.

Picked on April 02 at $ 5.74
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand

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Threshold Pharma. - THLD - close: 16.34 chg: -0.18 stop: 14.49

THLD's lack of participation in the market's rally today is a bit of a concern. The overall pattern remains bullish. Volume came in somewhat below average so it could just be an absence of buyers - buyers who may have been distracted by the widespread rally across the rest of the market. Our target is the $17.95-18.25 range only because we do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Traders with a longer-term time frame may want to aim higher. Remember, that any time you trade a biotech/drug company there is always an increased risk of headline news. A failed test or clinical trial or FDA rejection could send the stock gapping lower. Or the opposite could happen and good news could send shares soaring.

Picked on April 16 at $16.06
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 384 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - close: 38.93 chg: -0.45 stop: 41.31

AAP offered bears some relief today with the stock's relative weakness and failure to join the rest of the market's strength. You'll notice that volume today was way above average, which is definitely a bearish signal. We are going to target a decline into the $36.00-35.50 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

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Aeropostale - ARO - close: 30.37 chg: +1.87 stop: 29.05

The big market rally was the perfect excuse to send ARO back towards the top of its trading range. We remain on the sidelines and we may never be triggered if the market's continue higher. Currently we're trying to catch a breakdown with a trigger to short the stock at $27.69. However, traders might want to consider bullish positions if ARO can trade over $32.00.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Entercom - ETM - close: 26.65 chg: -1.02 stop: 28.51

Our bearish play in ETM has been opened. Unfortunately, the stock gapped down this morning to open at $26.80, which is below our trigger at $27.45, so we don't have the best entry point. The stock's relative weakness is pretty significant and volume on the move was pretty huge. Strangely we cannot find the catalyst for today's drop. We don't see any headlines for ETM. We suspect that a rival missed their earnings numbers or issued an earnings warning but we can't find it at the moment. Broken support at $27.50 should now act as resistance. Our target is the $25.50-25.25 range.

Picked on April 18 at $26.80 *gap down*
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand

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Modine Mfg. - MOD - close: 28.89 chg: +0.97 stop: 29.05

Be careful! Bears might want to take a few more steps toward the exits. Today's market rally fueled a 3.4% bounce in MOD and the stock has closed back above technical resistance at its 50-dma. We are not suggesting new plays. Odds are really good that if there is any sort of follow through higher tomorrow we'll be stopped out.

Picked on April 11 at $27.73
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 230 thousand

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Newport Corp. - NEWP - close: 18.06 chg: +0.36 stop: 18.55

Volume was just above average on today's 2% bounce in NEWP and short-term technical oscillators certainly look more bullish after today's gain. We are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown below $17.50. If NEWP does not turn south pretty soon we'll drop the stock as a candidate since we do not want to hold over next week's earnings report. If triggered at 17.45 we are going to target a decline into the $16.25-16.00 range. We do expect some support near the 100-dma (16.50). The H&S pattern is suggesting a target in the 15.20 region. The latest data lists short interest at 5.2% of its 36.6 million-share float.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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SAFECO - SAFC - close: 50.14 change: +1.02 stop: 51.05

Reversal alert! More conservative traders may want to exit SAFC right here. The stock's 2% gain today was fueled by better than average volume and pushed the stock back above the $50.00 mark. Short-term technicals have naturally turned bullish. However, what really looks threatening is the three-day candlestick pattern looks like a bullish reversal. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. If you choose not to exit early keep a close eye on overhead resistance at the $51.00 level.

Picked on April 09 at $ 49.84
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 755 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Americredit - ACF - close: 30.66 chg: +0.16 stop: 30.65

We are running out of time with ACF. The company is due to report earnings next Monday, April 24th. That doesn't give us enough time to see the stock breakdown, hit our trigger, and then move toward our target. We're choosing to drop ACF as a bearish candidate.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Compania Min.Buen. - BVN - close: 26.69 chg: +1.51 stop: 26.31

If the recent saber-rattling between the U.S. and Iran wasn't enough the market's big rally finally pushed BVN back above the $26.00 level. We've been stopped out at $26.31.

Picked on April 11 at $24.44
Change since picked: + 2.25
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 818 thousand
 

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