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Long Play Updates

Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.69 chg: +0.09 stop: 19.95

There is no real change in LBYTA. The stock remains under resistance at the 100-dma. A strong earnings report from cable provider Comcast was not enough to jar LBYTA out of its sideways consolidation. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million


Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 38.51 chg: +0.38 stop: 36.39

Thursday proved to be a volatile session for PVH. The stock rallied to $39.50, which was resistance last week, before paring its gains. Overall we remain bullish on the stock but we'd probably look for another bounce from the $37.60-38.00 region before considering new long positions. Our target will be the $42.00-42.50 range. We do expect some resistance near $40.00 to slow down PVH's ascent. Our time frame is about seven weeks. Keep your ears open for any news when PVH presents at the May 3rd Lehman Brothers retail seminar.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand


PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 30.45 chg: -0.61 stop: 28.45

PWEI experienced some profit taking today. Normally we would leave our stop loss right where it is at $28.45. However, we only have a few days left before PWEI reports earnings so we're going to tighten our stop to $29.24 to reduce our risk. We plan to exit on May 2nd near the closing bell to avoid the earnings report due out later that day. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: + 1.53
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 39.88 chg: +1.24 stop: 40.05

Watch out! Today's 3.2% gain is a breakout over the 10-dma and looks like a bullish reversal. The short-term technical picture is certainly looking more positive. We don't see any news to account for the strength today but volume was very strong! That's a danger sign for the bears. AAP is only 17 cents from our stop loss at $40.05. Odds are looking pretty good that we'll be stopped out tomorrow!

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand


Aeropostale - ARO - close: 30.65 chg: +0.91 stop: 29.05

ARO is bouncing back toward the top of its trading range again. It is looking like odds are better for a bullish breakout near $31.50 than a bearish breakdown around $28.00. We are going to adjust our strategy. If ARO trades over $31.50, we are suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $31.65. If triggered at $31.65 our target will be the $34.85-35.00 range. Tomorrow/Sunday we're going to move ARO from the bearish section of the newsletter to the bullish section of the newsletter.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Entercom - ETM - close: 26.35 chg: +0.10 stop: 27.55

ETM dipped to a new low of $25.97 before rebounding. Our only concern was the above average volume on the bounce. We are not suggesting new positions and we're considering a tighter stop near $27.25 or $27.00 however for now we'll leave the stop at $27.55. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Our target is the $25.50-25.25 range.

Picked on April 18 at $26.80 *gap down*
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand


Red Robin - RRGB - close: 44.81 chg: +0.82 stop: 46.51

Our new short in RRGB is not off to the strongest start. Shares dipped to $43.53 before rebounding back above the 50-dma. Now the stock looks poised to make a run at the $46.00 region. Watch for a failed rally under $46.00 as a new bearish entry point to short RRGB. If you study the weekly chart it looks like RRGB is rolling over under the top of its descending/bearish channel. We are going to target a decline into the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand


SCS Transportation - SCST - cls: 26.83 chg: +0.19 stop: 30.01

The Dow transportation index under performed today but SCST is still trying to bounce and added 0.7% after testing the $26.00 level and its 100-dma (again). The lack of follow through on the bearish breakdown in SCST is making us nervous. There is still a good chance that shares will rally back to the $28.00-28.50 region and test resistance at the 10-dma or the 50-dma. We would definitely wait to see if that bounce fails before initiating new positions. We're going to lower our stop loss to $29.01. Our target will be the $25.00-24.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 04/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 35.09 chg: -0.06 stop: 36.25

Thursday was a quiet session for TIF. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is going to be the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

Closed Long Plays

Atlas America - ATLS - close: 49.08 chg: -0.51 stop: 47.99

We have been stopped out of ATLS at $47.99. The stock opened at $49.49 and then quickly traded lower to $42.63 before rebounding. The catalyst for Thursday's spike lower remains a mystery but we have been suggesting caution for the last couple of days given the bearish consolidation above $50. Today is a good example of why stop losses are crucial and why we hesitate to trade low volume stocks.

Picked on April 19 at $51.25
Change since picked: - 2.17
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 163 thousand


Baidu.com - BIDU - close: 57.28 chg: -0.86 stop: 57.95

Our aggressive long play in shares of volatile BIDU did not pay off. The stock finally broke down under the $58.00 level producing a new MACD sell signal. We would have been stopped out at $57.95. More aggressive traders might want to consider bearish positions here but watch out for potential support near the 50-dma.

Picked on April 20 at $62.55
Change since picked: - 5.27
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 877 thousand


Sanderson Farms - SAFM - close: 26.14 chg: -0.61 stop: 21.99

Target achieved. Thursday was an interesting session for SAFM. The stock gapped down under $26.00, dipped to $24.00 and then sharply rebounded to hit a new relative high at $28.05 before paring its gains. Volume on the session was huge at about four times the daily average. Headlines for SAFM today was an analyst upgrade for the stock and the company declared a 12-cent dividend. Our target was the $28.00-30.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $24.77
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 05/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 537 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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