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Long Play Updates

Aeropostale - ARO - close: 30.71 chg: +0.06 stop: 28.99

We have been trying to catch a breakout from ARO's trading range for the past three weeks. Previously we thought the break out would be lower through support near $28.00. Now we believe that odds are growing for a breakout higher through resistance in the $31.00-31.50 region. If you look at the daily chart it looks like an inverse or bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. We are suggesting a trigger at $31.65 to go long the stock. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $34.85-35.00 range.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.71 chg: +0.02 stop: 20.14*new*

LBTYA's bounce last week culminated in another failed rally at technical resistance at its 100-dma on Friday. We have five more trading days before we plan to exit ahead of the company's earnings report (although the date, May 8th, is unconfirmed). We are not suggesting new bullish positions with LBYTA under the 100-dma. We are going to raise the stop loss to $20.14.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million


Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 40.20 chg: +1.69 stop: 36.39

Friday was a bullish day for PVH. The company raised its earnings forecast and the markets responded with a 4.38% gain in the stock. The stock broke out over the $40.00 level and closed there on strong volume. This is bullish news but there looks like a chance that PVH will fill the gap before moving higher. We would look for a dip back toward $39.50 as the next entry point. Our target will be the $42.00-42.50 range. PVH will present at the Lehman Brothers Retail seminar next week on May 3rd.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand


PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 30.52 chg: -0.00 stop: 28.75*new*

Traders in PWEI appear to be running down the clock. The stock has essentially traded sideways over the last couple of weeks and the company's earnings report is coming up next week. We are going to try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $28.75. More conservative traders may want to exit early since PWEI's upward momentum has stalled. Our plan is to exit on May 2nd at the closing bell to avoid holding over the earnings report later that day.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: + 1.60
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

Short Play Updates

Entercom - ETM - close: 26.47 chg: +0.12 stop: 27.55

ETM's bounce from Thursday continued into Friday, which isn't too surprising. The stock has been short-term oversold and due for a rebound. The question is where will ETM find resistance. The 10-dma, near Friday's high, is immediate resistance. Beyond that ETM could encounter resistance at $27.00 and then again at $27.55. We would not suggest new bearish positions at this time. Bear in mind that we want to exit ahead of the May 8th earnings report so we'll plan to close the play this coming Friday. Our target is the $25.50-25.25 range. The P&F chart points to a $20.00 target.

Picked on April 18 at $26.80 *gap down*
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand


Red Robin - RRGB - close: 44.96 chg: +0.17 stop: 46.51

RRGB spent most of Friday's session consolidating sideways. There was a late day attempt at a rally but it appeared to fail and shares were sliding lower into the closing bell. Overall the daily and weekly patterns look bearish. Fundamentally things could be challenging too. More than one analyst has suggested that rising gasoline prices at the pump will impact restaurant food sales, especially family dining. We will continue to suggest shorts with RRGB under $46.00. If you study the weekly chart it looks like RRGB is rolling over under the top of its descending/bearish channel. We are going to target a decline into the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand


SCS Transportation - SCST - cls: 26.27 chg: -0.56 stop: 28.55*new*

We were expecting more of a bounce in shares of SCST but the stock turned south on Friday. SCST lost just over 2% and volume came in above average. While the move lower is encouraging we would not consider new shorts here. SCST is still hanging on to support near the $26.00 level. We're going to lower our stop loss again to $28.55. Our target will be the $25.00-24.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 1.18
Earnings Date 04/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 34.89 chg: -0.20 stop: 36.25

The situation looks unhealthy for TIF. In its recent earnings report the company's revenues came in light. Investors are worried what rising fuel costs will do to consumer spending. Luxury items could be the first to go. Plus, the rising cost of gold is probably putting pressure on TIF's margins and/or is raising prices for the consumer. Technically TIF's daily chart has produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Meanwhile the P&F chart is bearish and points to a $30.00 target. We are suggesting shorts with TIF under $35.50 and our target is the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 40.22 chg: +0.34 stop: 40.05

We have been stopped out at $40.05. We warned readers on Thursday that the big bounce didn't look done yet and we expected the rebound to continue but we kept the play open since $40.00 was still overhead resistance.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

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