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Long Play Updates

Aeropostale - ARO - close: 31.69 chg: +0.98 stop: 28.99

Monday turned out to be a bullish session for retail stocks. Investors ignored the threat of rising oil and choose to respond positively to strong news from Wal-mart. WMT announced that its April same-store sales numbers would come in close to 6.8%, which is above the previous forecast of 4-6% growth. This set the tone for retail stocks and ARO got a further boost after an analyst firm raised their earnings estimates on the company. Our strategy was to go long the stock at $31.65, which is a bullish breakout through the top of its trading range. ARO hit our trigger today and volume on the breakout was about double the daily average. Our target is the $34.85-35.00 range.

Picked on May 01 at $31.65
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 06/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.48 chg: -0.23 stop: 20.14

Double-check your stop loss. LBTYA displayed some relative weakness today and is heading back towards the $20.00 level. We would not be surprised to get stopped out tomorrow at $20.14.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million


Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 40.48 chg: +0.28 stop: 36.39

Positive same-store sales news from retail titan Wal-mart (WMT) lifted the retail sector today. Unfortunately, PVH could not maintain its early lead and gave up most of its Monday gains. We're still suggesting that readers look for a "fill the gap" move toward $39.50. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 range. PVH will present at the Lehman Brothers Retail seminar on May 3rd.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: + 1.89
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

Short Play Updates

Blyth Inc. - BTH - close: 20.50 chg: -0.05 stop: 20.55

BTH continues to consolidate sideways in its short-term 20.25-20.90 range. Overall the bearish pattern remains unchanged. We'll suggest a trigger to short BTH at 19.79, which is under the late March low. If triggered we will target a decline into the $18.25-18.00 range since the $18.00 level has been support in the past.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand


Digital River - DRIV - close: 44.51 chg: +0.97 stop: 46.11

Monday's 2.2% gain looks like nothing more than an oversold bounce following Friday's breakdown. Volume on today's move was below average. Readers can use a failed rally under $45.00 as a new entry point to short the stock. Don't forget that we consider this an aggressive play since DRIV has significant upward momentum and bulls might want buy the dip in spite of the bearish breakdown from its channel. The stock also has a significant amount of short interest. We are going to target the $38.50-37.50 range.

Picked on April 30 at $43.54
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


Entercom - ETM - close: 26.04 chg: -0.43 stop: 27.55

ETM displayed new relative weakness on Monday with a 1.6% decline on strong volume. The stock is testing minor support at the $26.00 level. Our target is the $25.50-25.25 range. The P&F chart points to a $20.00 target.

Picked on April 18 at $26.80 *gap down*
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 47.38 chg: -0.78 stop: 50.01

Our new short in KLAC is off to a good start. The SOX semiconductor index helped lead the tech sector sell-off with a 0.9% decline. KLAC helped lead the SOX lower with its own 1.6% decline. Both the SOX and KLAC have their daily MACD indicators nearing a new sell signal. Our target for KLAC is the $44.20-44.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $37 target.

Picked on April 30 at $48.16
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million


Red Robin - RRGB - close: 45.10 chg: +0.14 stop: 46.51

RRGB tried to rally higher this morning but the rally ran out of steam. This failed rally looks like a new bearish entry point to short RRGB. More conservative traders might want to wait for some confirmation and look for a decline under $44.75 or $44.50 before initiating new positions. Our target is the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand


SCS Transportation - SCST - cls: 26.00 chg: -0.27 stop: 28.55

Another up tick in oil prices helped push the trucking stocks lower today. SCST fell just over 1% and is on the verge of breaking down below short-term support at the $26.00 level. Our target will be the $25.00-24.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 04/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 34.34 chg: -0.55 stop: 36.25

Luxury retailer TIF continue to move lower on Monday in spite of some positive retail news from Wal-mart. Shares of TIF lost 1.57% on above average volume, which helps support the bearish scenario here. Our target is the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 0.77
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

Closed Long Plays

PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 28.11 chg: -2.41 stop: 28.75

We have been stopped out at $28.75. We find it pretty interesting that PWEI sold off, losing 7.89% on big volume, the day before its earnings report with no news to account for the weakness.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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