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Long Play Updates

Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 39.93 chg: -0.59 stop: 37.49

More conservative traders may want to exit early in PVH right here. The stock has been consolidating sideways above the $40.00 region for the past week but each rally attempt has been thwarted and now the stock significantly under performed the market rally on Friday. Long-term the stock's trend remains positive and we're going to keep the play open but we expect a dip toward the $39.00 level. You might want to consider tightening your stop loss. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 range. The Point & Figure chart currently points to a $56 target.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: + 1.34
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

Short Play Updates

Blyth Inc. - BTH - close: 20.56 chg: +0.26 stop: 20.55

The market's recent strength has done a lot to improve many bearish looking charts. BTH is one of them with a two-day bounce from round-number support near the $20.00 level. However, volume continues to come in very low on the rebound, which does not indicate a lot of strength behind the move. Plus, BTH's overall pattern remains bearish with a steady trend of lower highs and some negative technicals on its weekly chart. We are going to leave BTH on the newsletter as a bearish candidate for now. Currently our strategy is to catch a breakdown under support at $20.00 with a trigger to short the stock at $19.79, which is under the March low. If triggered we will target a decline into the $18.25-18.00 range since the $18.00 level has been support in the past.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand


Healthcare Rlty Trust - HR - cls: 35.14 chg: -0.18 stop: 37.01

HR is a new bearish candidate from the Thursday night newsletter. The company reported earnings on Wednesday evening and the market was not happy with the results. Shares of HR plummeted lower on Thursday breaking support near $36.00 and its simple 100-dma. Volume was very strong on the sell-off. On Friday morning before the opening bell an analyst downgraded the stock and this prompted a gap down in shares to open at $34.70. HR quickly rebounded but then struggled the rest of the session. Considering the strength in the market and the action we see on the intraday chart in HR we suspect that HR will bounce soon. Therefore traders will probably do better by waiting for the bounce and watch for where it fails. We expect broken support near $36.00 to act as new overhead resistance so a failed rally near $36 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target will be the $32.50-32.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $22 target.

Picked on May 04 at $35.32
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand


Red Robin - RRGB - close: 45.22 chg: +0.14 stop: 46.51

Buckle your seat belt. The sideways consolidation in RRGB has narrowed so tightly that we expect a breakout on Monday. Shares spent most of Friday's session in a narrow 10-cent range. Longer-term the stock has been struggling under a trend of lower highs. Last month RRGB produced two failed rallies at overhead technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. The stock broke down under support at $45.00 several days ago but has since managed to cling to its simple 50-dma and the bottom of its four-month rising channel for support. Fundamentally some analysts are concerned that the high gasoline prices will impact results at family dining establishments like RRGB. The recent same-store sales for some of the retailers this past week may have weakened that argument since high fuel costs did not seem to slow down the consumer in April but shares of RRGB failed to move on the retail news. We are suggesting that readers look for a decline under $44.75 or $44.50 as the next entry point to short the stock. Our target is the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 34.06 chg: -0.26 stop: 36.01*new*

Jewelry and luxury goods retailer TIF continues to under perform. Maybe investors are worried that high fuel costs will leave Mr. Consumer with less discretionary income to spend on luxuries. Plus, odds are TIF will need to pass on the rising costs of gold to the consumer, which could further impede sales. Technically TIF has been sinking under a six-month trend of lower highs. In the last few months the stock has produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This has helped produce a bearish Point & Figure chart sell signal that points to a $30 target. Our target is the $32.25-31.75 range. We are going to tighten our stop loss to $36.01.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Laserscope - LSCP - close: 21.59 chg: +1.13 stop: 21.55

We warned readers on Thursday night that LSCP had produced a bullish reversal after dipping low enough on Thursday to hit our trigger and open the play. Friday's big market rally was the perfect reason for shorts to panic and rush to cover positions. Shares of LSCP ended up with a 5.5% gain on strong volume. We have been stopped out at $21.55.

Picked on May 04 at $19.95
Change since picked: + 1.64
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 424 thousand

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