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Long Play Updates

Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 39.30 chg: -0.63 stop: 37.49

We have been cautious on PVH for a week now given the lack of upward momentum and shares finally broke down under short-term support in the $39.70 region. A bounce from $39.00 would be good enough to fill the gap and we'd used it as a new entry point but we would not be surprised by a dip toward the $38 level. Be sure and wait for the bounce before considering new positions. You might want to consider tightening your stop loss. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 range. The Point & Figure chart currently points to a $56 target.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

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Stone Energy - SGY - close: 47.58 chg: +0.17 stop: 45.95

News that the President of Iran sent a letter to President Bush about possible "solutions" helped deflate some of the oil premium, at least a small amount, with crude oil's decline under $70 a barrel today. Fortunately, SGY continued to show relative strength and the stock out performed its peers in the oil sector. We see no changes from our weekend update. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new rise past the simple 200-dma at 47.95 before initiating plays. Our short-term target will be resistance in the $51.25-51.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on May 07 at $47.41
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 560 thousand

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Universal Health - UHS - close: 51.86 chg: +0.17 stop: 49.95

We were almost triggered today. Shares of USH broke out over resistance at the $52.00 level but failed to hit our trigger to go long at $52.15. The high today was $52.09. We feel it is fortunate that we were not triggered today since volume was below the daily average suggesting a lack of confidence or conviction behind the move. Our strategy still stands. If triggered we will target the $56.00-57.00 range, which has been significant resistance in the past. We do anticipate some resistance near $54.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 571 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Blyth Inc. - BTH - close: 20.84 chg: +0.28 stop: 20.55

We are still sitting on the sidelines with BTH. The stock's oversold bounce from the $20.00 level just marked its third gain in a row. However, technical traders will note that volume is drying up and has never been very strong on this rebound. We suspect that the stock will roll over under the $21.00 level or its 50-dma near 21.26. Aggressive traders might want to consider a position if a failed rally does occur. We're still going to suggest a trigger to short the stock at $19.79 under the March low. If triggered we will target a decline into the $18.25-18.00 range since the $18.00 level has been support in the past.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 31.92 chg +0.06 stop: 33.51

The major market averages drifted sideways on Monday and shares of COH followed suit to churn in a narrow range all day. We do not see any changes from our weekend play description. We are suggesting a trigger at $31.45 to short the stock. If triggered our target will be the $28.25-27.50 range although more aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Healthcare Rlty Trust - HR - cls: 35.20 chg: +0.06 stop: 37.01

We are suggesting that readers wait and watch for HR's bounce to fail under the $36.00 level (near its 100-dma) before considering new bearish positions. Our target is the $32.50-32.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $22 target.

Picked on May 04 at $35.32
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand

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Red Robin - RRGB - close: 45.00 chg: -0.22 stop: 46.51

Today wasn't the big breakout we thought it might be but shares of RRGB are moving and the direction appears to be lower. The stock looks poised to breakdown under $45.00 and its 50-dma (44.69) soon. We are suggesting that readers look for a decline under $44.75 or $44.50 as the next entry point to short the stock. Our target is the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand

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Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 34.37 chg: +0.31 stop: 36.01

TIF is still trying to bounce from the $34.00 level but the bulls are struggling to push TIF past short-term resistance at its 10-dma. We do not see any changes from our weekend play update. Our target is the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 0 74
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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