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Long Play Updates

Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 38.00 chg: -1.80 stop: 37.49

Whoa! PVH gapped lower and closed with a 4.5% decline on big volume after announcing that the company had priced a secondary offering of 10.1 million shares at $38.00. The markets reacted immediately to the news. We are not suggesting new bullish positions and more conservative traders may want to close early or tighten stops toward today's low (37.85).

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: + 1.21
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

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Stone Energy - SGY - close: 47.77 chg: +0.28 stop: 45.95

A 2% rise in the price of crude oil to $72.00 a barrel lent some strength to the oil stocks. Unfortunately, SGY is still struggling under the $48.00 level and its simple 200-dma (47.88). The high today was $47.85. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new rise past the simple 200-dma before initiating plays. Our short-term target will be resistance in the $51.25-51.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on May 07 at $47.41
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 560 thousand

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Universal Health - UHS - close: 52.16 chg: +0.25 stop: 49.95

UHS turned in another session of gains and broke out over the $52.00 level. We were triggered at $52.15 opening the play. The close over $52.00 is positive but we're suggesting a little bit of caution. The stock spent the session bouncing back and forth between $52.50 and $52.00 and the broader market indices are not looking healthy. Our target is the $56.00-57.00 range.

Picked on May 10 at $52.15
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 571 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Blyth Inc. - BTH - close: 20.65 chg: -0.13 stop: 20.55

There is still no change with BTH. The stock is hovering under resistance near $21.00. We're still suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $19.79 under the March low. If triggered we will target a decline into the $18.25-18.00 range since the $18.00 level has been support in the past.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 31.65 chg -0.27 stop: 33.51

COH is getting closer to our trigger to short it at $31.45. More aggressive traders might want to open positions early right here since this is a new closing lower for the last six and a half months. If we are triggered at $31.45 our target will be the $28.25-27.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Healthcare Rlty - HR - cls: 34.23 chg: -0.40 stop: 36.26*new*

HR continues to sink and the weekly chart's MACD indicator has produced a new sell signal. The $34.00 level might offer some round-number support so we would be on the look out for a bounce. We are going to lower our stop loss to $36.26. Our target is the $32.50-32.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $22 target.

Picked on May 04 at $35.32
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand

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Red Robin - RRGB - close: 44.91 chg: -0.11 stop: 46.51

Be careful here. For the last several days we've been suggesting that readers wait for a decline under $44.75 or $44.50 as a new entry point to short RRGB. The stock fell through both of those levels today during the post-FOMC meeting volatility. Unfortunately, the stock bounced back almost to unchanged. We would consider shorts if RRGB rolls over under $45.00 but we'd be double-checking our stop loss if shares traded over $45.50. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Aggressive traders can leave their stops above the simple 200-dma near $47. Our target is the $40.25-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We'll plan to exit ahead of the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand

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Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 33.90 chg: -0.07 stop: 36.01

TIF continues to look bearish. The stock gapped lower and hit a new relative low at $33.50 before bouncing back only to produce another failed rally under the 10-dma near $34.20. We do not see any changes from our weekend play update. Our target is the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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