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Long Play Updates

Stone Energy - SGY - close: 46.15 chg: -1.15 stop: 45.95

Prepare to abandon ship. The sell-off on Friday did not spare the energy/oil sector. Shares of SGY lost 2.4% and appear to have broken through the bottom of their rising channel. The only reason we're keeping the play open is the fact that shares are holding on to support at the $46.00 level. Odds are really good that we'll be stopped out on Monday at $45.95 if the markets retreat any further. We're not suggesting new positions but we remain bullish on oil stocks long-term.

Picked on May 07 at $47.41
Change since picked: - 1.26
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 560 thousand

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Universal Health - UHS - close: 52.10 chg: -0.02 stop: 49.95

UHS continues to show relative strength as it stubbornly holds on to the $52.00 area. We're not complaining but if the major averages continue to slip we expect UHS will eventually fall with them. Thus we hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time although a bounce from the 10-dma or the $51.00-51.25 region would look like a new entry point. Our target is the $56.00-57.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $64 target.

Picked on May 10 at $52.15
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 571 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Blyth Inc. - BTH - close: 20.35 chg: -0.06 stop: 20.55

The battle continues in BTH between $20.00 and its slow trend of lower highs. The stock appears to be creeping closer to a breakdown of support and we're suggesting that readers be ready to catch the breakdown with a trigger to short the stock at $19.79, which is under the March low. If triggered we will target a decline into the $18.25-18.00 range since the $18.00 level has been support in the past. Keep in mind that we want to exit ahead of the late May earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 30.65 chg -0.62 stop: 33.01*new*

The RLX retail index lost 1.75% on Friday but COH under performed its peers with a 1.98% loss on strong volume. Shares hit a low of $30.15 before bouncing. The bounce may not be over yet so if you're considering a new position wait for a failed rally under $31.50-32.00. We are lowering our stop loss to $33.01. Our target is the $28.25-27.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $24 target.

Picked on May 11 at $31.45
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Hi-Tech Pharma - HITK - close: 21.22 chg: -0.22 stop: 24.01*new*

Watch out! HITK hit $20.59 on Friday before bouncing. The candlestick looks like a short-term bullish reversal. We would expect a bounce back toward $22.00 maybe higher. The nearest technical resistance is the 10-dma near 23.28. We're not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. We are lowering our stop loss to $24.01.

Picked on May 10 at $22.91
Change since picked: - 1.69
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 154 thousand

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 16.87 chg: -0.31 stop: 18.01

JNPR continued to breakdown on Friday and lost 1.8% to close under support at the $17.00 level. Our trigger to short the stock was at $16.89 so the play is now open. We do not see any changes from our new play description so we're reposting it here:

Networking titan CSCO recently reported earnings and investors were unhappy with the cautious tone for the current quarter. This helped spark a sell-off in the networking sector, which is bad news for JNPR, which has already been suffering on its own. JNPR has been consolidating mostly sideways since its January gap down and now we see a double-top pattern near $20.50, combined with a failed rally under its 100-dma. More recently the stock has been wilting under a pattern of lower highs. We want to catch the next leg lower if shares breakdown under support near $17.00. We'll suggest a trigger to short JNPR at $16.89. If triggered our target will be the $15.10-15.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $14.50 target.

Picked on May 12 at $16.89
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.2 million

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K-Swiss - KSWS - close: 27.87 chg: +0.17 stop: 29.01

Be careful here. KSWS broke support at $27.50 on Friday and hit our trigger to short it at $27.45 but quickly reversed course on us. Volume was pretty strong on Friday and that makes us nervous. KSWS should find various levels of resistance at 28.00, 28.50, and 29.00. A failed rally at any of these levels could be used as a new entry point but we'll be nervous if shares trade over the 10-dma near $28.50. Our target is the $25.15-25.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart points to a $21.00 target. Be advised that the most recent data puts short interest at 5.8% of KSWS' 27 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on May 12 at $27.45
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 300 thousand

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Red Robin - RRGB - close: 43.11 chg: -0.64 stop: 46.01

We are running out of time with our short play in RRGB. The company is expected to report earnings on Thursday, May 18th. We do not want to hold over the report so we'll plan to exit on Wednesday afternoon near the closing bell. Considering our time frame we're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop. Our target remains the $40.25-40.00 range.

Picked on April 26 at $43.99
Change since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 05/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand

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Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 33.00 chg: -0.63 stop: 35.01 *new*

The sell-off in TIF is picking up speed with a 1.8% decline on Friday. The stock is nearing our target in the $32.25-31.75 range. We're going to lower our stop loss to $35.01. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Readers should note that TIF may be ready to produce another oversold bounce (see chart for details).

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: - 2.11
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 36.32 chg: -0.31 stop: 39.15

We are suggesting an early exit in BRCM. Our target was the $36.00-35.50 range and shares hit a low of $36.01 on Friday before bouncing. Lending potential support was the simple 200-dma at $35.87. More aggressive traders may want to keep the play open since the bounce on Friday was fading lower into the close. We suspect that BRCM will rebound from the 200-dma and we'll be watching for a failed rally under the 10-dma or the $40.00 level.

Picked on May 10 at $39.10
Change since picked: - 2.78
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.7 million
 

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