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Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 49.50 chg: +0.41 stop: 47.95

We are encouraged by the bounce from APC's simple 200-dma but we're not out of the woods yet. The oil sector still looks vulnerable and we're at the mercy of the news regarding Iran. Wait for a move back over $50.50 or even $51.50 before considering new long positions.

Picked on June 04 at $50.43
Change since picked: - 0.93
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.7 million

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Archstone - ASN - close: 49.42 chg: -0.35 stop: 47.35

Thankfully shares of ASN did not see a big follow through lower today after yesterday's failed rally. The stock held minor support near $49.00. We remain very cautious and we're not suggesting new long positions at this time.

Picked on June 05 at $50.21
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 989 thousand

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Brookfield Asset Mgt - BAM - cls: 41.97 chg: +0.25 stop: 40.83

Traders bought the dip near $41.25 today and probably saved us from being stopped out. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target to exit is at $43.85.

Picked on May 25 at $40.83
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 04/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 473 thousand

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Ensco Intl. - ESV - close: 49.10 chg: -0.50 stop: 47.35

Tuesday was a day of indecision for oil stock traders. ESV dipped to $47.76 before bouncing and closing close to where the stock opened for trading. Technically this is a bullish bounce from the simple 200-dma but the technical oscillators look bearish given the sharp pull back. We are not suggesting new bullish positions and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (maybe 47.50?).

Picked on June 04 at $51.71
Change since picked: - 2.61
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Murphy Oil - MUR - close: 53.32 chg: +0.79 stop: 49.99

MUR displayed some decent relative strength today. Traders bought the dip at $52.00 this morning and the stock closed with a 1.5% gain. This looks like a new bullish entry point but we'd hesitate to open new plays given the market's bearish attitude.

Picked on May 31 at $52.55
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Potlatch - PCH - close: 37.92 chg: -0.59 stop: 36.99

PCH continued to sink losing another 1.5% by the closing bell. We warned readers to expect a dip into the $38.00-37.50 region. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 04 at $39.39
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 07/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 362 thousand

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RPC Inc. - RES - close: 24.52 change: -0.27 stop: 22.45

Believe it or not but in spite of RES' 1% decline today the MACD still produced a new buy signal. A bounce from the $24.00 level can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $29.50-39.00 range. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop loss!

Picked on June 04 at $25.04
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 618 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Autodesk - ADSK - close: 35.28 change: +0.15 stop: 36.65

Hmm... it looks like we did not use a low enough trigger. ADSK dipped to $34.87 before bouncing back above the $35.00 level. Our trigger to short the stock was at $34.89. The play is now open but we are not suggesting bearish positions with ADSK above $35.00. The $36.00 level and its simple 10-dma should be short-term overhead resistance. Our exit strategy is to sell part of your position in the $32.60-32.50 range and the rest in the $30.75-30.50 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $26.00 target.

Picked on June 06 at $34.89
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Fording Coal - FDG - close: 33.45 change: -0.63 stop: 36.01

Coal stocks continued to sell off today following some negative legal news for the industry. Shares of FDG lost 1.8%, which would appear to confirm yesterday's breakdown. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Monday night. We are going to suggest two targets. Consider selling half or more of your position in the $31.85-31.75 range, since FDG has support near $31.75. Then sell the remainder of your position in the $30.25-30.00 range.

Picked on June 05 at $34.08
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 07/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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K-Swiss - KSWS - close: 26.53 chg: +0.08 stop: 27.15 *new*

KSWS is flirting with our target at the $26.00 mark. The stock hit $26.15 before bouncing higher. The stock continues to look oversold and due for a bounce so we are not suggesting new bearish positions. We will adjust our stop loss to $27.15.

Picked on May 12 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 300 thousand

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Blue Nile - NILE - close: 30.35 chg: +0.63 stop: 32.01

NILE has produced what some traders call an "inside day". A move over $30.75 would suggest going short-term long. A move under $29.62 would be an entry for new shorts. We are suggesting a trigger at $29.45 to short the stock. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play altogether or wait for a move under $29.20 or $29.00 before initiating positions. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. Remember, this is a high-risk play given NILE's high level of short interest and the increased risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 35.27 chg: -0.11 stop: 36.65

We don't see any changes from our previous updates on SBUX.
More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss or wait for a move under $35.00 as an entry point to short SBUX. Our target is the $33.15 mark.

Picked on May 23 at $35.59
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 45.45 change: -1.55 stop: 44.95

We have been stopped out at $44.95. The sell-off in coal stocks continued into Tuesday as news surfaced that the U.S. Supreme Court would not hear an appeal concerning a W.Virgina court's decision upholding a state coal severance tax. If ACI trades under $44.50 readers might want to consider shorts and target the $40 level and/or its simple 200-dma.

Picked on May 28 at $47.50
Change since picked: - 2.05
Earnings Date 07/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Drew Industry - DW - close: 29.67 chg: -0.99 stop: 30.19

We have been stopped out. The 3.2% decline on Tuesday is a breakdown below support at the 200-dma and the $30.00 (30.20) levels. Volume came in well above average, which is bearish. This looks like a new bearish entry point to short the stock.

Picked on May 25 at $31.62
Change since picked: - 1.95
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 137 thousand

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ImClone Sys. - IMCL - close: 37.93 chg: -2.13 stop: 39.40

We have been stopped out. One thing stop losses don't do well is protect us against gap downs. IMCL opened at $38.72 after being downgraded this morning before the bell. Shares quickly fell to $37.20 before bouncing. Our stop loss was at $39.40 so we should have been taken out at the open.

Picked on June 01 at $40.55
Change since picked: - 2.62
Earnings Date 07/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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