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Long Play Updates

Archstone - ASN - close: 49.83 chg: +0.45 stop: 47.75

ASN continues to show relative strength. The stock tried to breakout past the $50.00 level today. While the failure to close over $50.00 might be seen as bearish the stock did post a gain on a day where almost every sector closed lower. Traders might want to consider new longs plays on a move past $50.25 but we'd hesitate to buy any stock if the major averages are still sinking tomorrow. Our target is the $53.85-54.00 range. The Point & Figure chart for ASN has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $70.00 target. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop (maybe around $48.50).

Picked on June 05 at $50.21
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 989 thousand


Potlatch - PCH - close: 38.10 chg: +0.10 stop: 36.99

PCH also displayed some relative strength today by closing with a minor gain. Volume came in pretty strong. We would wait for a move past the 50-dma or the $40 level before considering new long positions and we'd definitely wait for the major market indices to stop falling.

Picked on June 04 at $39.39
Change since picked: - 1.29
Earnings Date 07/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 362 thousand


Ryanair - RYAAY - close: 50.70 change: -1.56 stop: 49.95

Whoa! RYAY gapped lower this morning and closed with a 2.98% loss. The move was probably caused by the significant losses across the global markets. RYAAY is an Irish company so big losses in the European markets probably sparked some profit taking. We are not suggesting new plays at this time but we would keep an eye open for a bounce from the $50.00 level.

Picked on June 08 at $51.34
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 07/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 304 thousand


UST Inc. - UST - close: 45.03 chg: +0.05 stop: 42.99

Ouch! UST lost 2.9% on above average volume today. Did someone suddenly decide to do some profit taking? Shares had been looking relatively strong. We were expecting a pull back toward $44.00-44.50 but shares fell right through the $44 level and its 50-dma. This does not look good for tomorrow nor does the bearish breakdown in shares of tobacco titan Altria Group (MO). Double check your stop loss. Right now we expect to be stopped out at $42.99.

Picked on June 08 at $44.71
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

Short Play Updates

Autodesk - ADSK - close: 35.01 change: +0.27 stop: 36.15 *new*

ADSK is not cooperating. The stock actually gained 0.77% and its technical indicators are starting to turn more bullish. We would not suggest new bearish plays at this time. We want to reduce our risk so we're adjusting the stop loss to $36.15. Our exit strategy is to sell part of your position in the $32.60-32.50 range and the rest in the $30.75-30.50 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $26.00 target.

Picked on June 06 at $34.89
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million


Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 36.07 change: -0.49 stop: 39.41

AVID closed at new nine-month lows today and more importantly closed under the April lows near $36.26. Everything continues to look bearish. Our target is the $32.50 mark but readers should be prepared for a bounce near $35.50-36.00. Traders can open positions here or use a failed rally under the 50-dma.

Picked on June 11 at $37.35
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 763 thousand


Drew Industry - DW - close: 27.65 chg: -0.89 stop: 30.05*new*

The sell-off in DW is picking up speed. The stock lost 3.11% on Tuesday. Shares are trading very close to our target in the $27.55-27.45 range. We suggest traders prepare to exit. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We're adjusting our stop loss to $30.05.

Picked on June 07 at $29.67
Change since picked: - 2.02
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 129 thousand


Flowserve - FLS - close: 48.79 chg: -0.33 stop: 52.25

FLS did not make much progress on its bearish breakdown but volume came in above average. Looking more closely at the intraday charts we suspect that FLS is going to try and rebound soon. Watch for a failed rally under its simple 10-dma as a potential entry point for new shorts. Our target is the $45.75-45.50 range. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $40.00 target.

Picked on June 12 at $49.90
Change since picked: - 1.11
Earnings Date 07/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 579 thousand


The Geo Group Inc. - GGI - cls: 32.40 chg: -0.65 stop: 35.65*new*

Target achieved. GGI dipped to $32.08 this afternoon. We were suggesting two targets with our first target to sell part of your position at $32.25. Our second target is the $30.25 mark. Shares are looking pretty oversold here and due for a bounce so we're not suggesting new bearish plays. We are going to lower our stop loss to $35.65, just above its simple 10-dma. Due to GGI's volatility this is an aggressive, higher-risk play.

Picked on June 11 at $34.14
Change since picked: - 1.74
Earnings Date 05/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 135 thousand


Blue Nile - NILE - close: 28.61 chg: -0.73 stop: 31.55 *new*

NILE lost another 2.48% and broke down under support in the $29.00-29.25 region to close at new one-year lows. This looks like another bearish entry point. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $31.55. Don't forget that NILE does have very high short interest, which increases the risk of a short squeeze. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $15 target.

Picked on June 08 at $29.45
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand

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