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Long Play Updates

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 30.36 chg: -0.04 stop: 29.69*new*

ADBE did see some follow through higher on Friday morning but the rally failed under the $31.00 level and volume came in very low. This failed rally doesn't help the daily MACD, which is starting to hint at a bearish roll over. We remain bullish with ADBE above $30.00 but we would not rush to open new positions here. Odds look good that ADBE will see another dip into the $30.00-29.85 region. Look for a bounce near $30 as a new entry point. We're raising our stop loss to $29.69. Our conservative target is the $32.00-32.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near the 200-dma around $34.00. Our biggest concern is potential technical resistance at its descending 50-dma (currently 31.75).

Picked on June 29 at $30.40
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 06/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million

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Asta Funding - ASFI - close: 37.39 change: -0.29 stop: 34.95*new*

ASFI's volume on Friday came in pretty strong but bulls were unable to push ASFI to close over the $38.00 level. Technicals remain bullish but we suspect the next move may be lower toward the $36.50-36.00 region. We'd use a bounce near $36.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $39.95-40.00 range. Please note that we're raising the stop loss to $34.95.

Picked on June 23 at $36.01
Change since picked: + 1.38
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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A.S.V.Inc. - ASVI - close: 23.04 change: +0.85 stop: 20.85*new*

We have good news. ASVI displayed lots of relative strength on Friday. Shares added 3.8% and broke out over technical resistance at its 50-dma. Volume on the move was above average, which is bullish. More conservative traders might want to think about locking in some gains right now. Our target is the $23.50-24.00 range. We're going to raise our stop loss to $20.85. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 18 at $21.20
Change since picked: + 1.84
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 463 thousand

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Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 47.43 chg: +0.19 stop: 43.99

CELG experienced some volatility on Friday morning but overall shares traded sideways on Friday. Yet it's worth noting that CELG was bouncing higher into the closing bell. We do not see any changes from our new play description on Thursday night so we're reposting it here:

CELG has been out performing both the biotech and drug sector. Now with the market in rally mode the stock is hitting new all-time highs. The bounce from the $45.00 level looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. Our only real complaint here is that volume was not very strong on Thursday's gain. The $50.00 level is probably the next level of resistance but we're going to aim for the $52.40-52.60 region. Readers should expect some give-and-take around the $50 mark. We're setting our initial stop loss at $43.99 but more conservative traders can probably get away with 44.49, which is under Wednesday's low. The Point & Figure chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $57 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $47.24
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Energy Transfer - ETP - close: 44.65 chg: -0.26 stop: 42.95 *new*

Oil stocks continue to trend higher with crude oil breaking out and now trading near $74 a barrel. While the sector strength is good news we're a little concerned about ETP. The stock remains in its multi-month up trend but the momentum is struggling and many of its technical indicators have turned bearish. If you do initiate new positions you might want to use a very tight stop. We're going to inch our stop loss up to $42.95. Our target is the $47.50-48.00 range. Please note that we do not have a confirmed earnings date yet for ETP and they might announce as early as July 10th. We do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on June 18 at $44.25
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 07/10/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 149 thousand

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Lam Research - LRCX - close: 46.72 chg: -0.10 stop: 44.25

Our new bullish play in LRCX has been opened. Shares hit $47.40 on Friday morning and our trigger to go long was at $47.25. We have two concerns. First, LRCX did not hold on to its gains and closed back under resistance near $47.00. Second, the SOX semiconductor index lost almost 1% on Friday and remains stuck inside its bearish channel. We would hesitate to open new positions in LRCX for the time being although aggressive traders might consider buying a bounce from the $46.00 level. A new move over $47.40 would be more encouraging and could be used as a new entry. Our target is the $52.40-52.60 range. We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

Picked on June 30 at $47.25
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Norfolk Southern - NSC - close: 53.22 chg: +0.65 stop: 49.35

Our new bullish play in NSC is off to a good start. Shares added 1.2% on Friday and broke out past the 50-dma. We don't see any changes from our new play description on Thursday night so we're reposting it here:

The transport stocks were a big part of Thursday's rally. The Dow Transportation index added 3.3% and broke out over resistance at the 4800 level. Railroad stocks were leaders in the charge higher. Shares of NSC broke out over the top of its two-week trading range and technical resistance at its 100-dma. We are suggesting long positions with NSC above $51.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a most past $52.75 just to make sure NSC clears the 50-dma. Our target is the $57.35-57.50 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $52.57
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 37.76 chg: -0.21 stop: 34.98

Shares of SBUX managed to hold on to most of their gains from Thursday. The stock spent Friday trading sideways in a narrow range. Readers can choose to go long here or wait for a potential dip back toward the $37.00 level. We would expect broke resistance at $37.00 to now act as new support. Our target is the $39.95-40.00 range.

Picked on June 29 at $37.05
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Verizon Comm. - VZ - close: 33.49 change: +0.19 stop: 31.90

The rebound in VZ continues. The stock added another 0.57% on Friday to close at a new two-month high. Shares are nearing the top of their narrow, rising channel so we would not initiate new bullish positions here (see chart). Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $32.54
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.8 million
 

Short Play Updates

Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 15.99 chg: -0.03 stop: 16.71*new*

We remain bearish on JNPR and the stock is still under its bearish trend of lower highs and its sliding 50-dma. However, with the market's recent rally we would take extra care around any bearish plays. We'd probably wait for a decline under $15.75 or even $15.50 before considering new shorts. Our target is unchanged in the $14.10-14.00 range. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $16.71, which is just above the 50-dma. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss near $16.50 or $16.25. FYI: The P&F chart points to an $8.50 target.

Picked on June 19 at $15.89
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.8 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 46.92 change: -0.08 stop: 50.01

We are still surprised by MDT's relative weakness. We keep expecting an oversold bounce and it doesn't show up. The stock remains very short-term oversold so we're not suggesting new bearish positions. More conservative traders may want to lock in some profits here. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 2.57
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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NitroMed - NTMD - close: 4.83 change: +0.26 stop: 5.16 *new*

Our unrealized gains continue to evaporate in NTMD. The stock added 5.6% on Friday with volume coming in way above average. NTMD was another stock that we expected to sink after it was announced the stock was being removed from the Russell indices. Shares did see a sell-off but the rebound in the last two days has been impressive. The volume on Friday was probably due to the Russell rebalancing. We are not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. Instead we are adjusting our stop loss to $5.16, which is above technical resistance at its simple 50-dma. We are also adjusting our target to the $4.10-4.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 5.07
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 07/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 710 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Ryder Systems - R - close: 58.43 chg: -0.13 stop: 54.99

Target achieved. Thursday's rally continued into Friday morning and R spiked to $59.93 before seeing any profit taking. Our target was the $59.85-60.00 range.

Picked on June 25 at $56.35
Change since picked: + 2.08
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 644 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

4 Kids Enter. - KDE - cls: 16.21 change: +0.46 stop: 16.01

We have been stopped out of KDE at $16.01. Our bearish play here did not perform even remotely close to what we expected. It was announced days ago that KDE was being removed from the Russell indices. This should have created new (and heavy) selling pressure on the stock as funds that track the Russell indices sell their positions in KDE. Thursday's short covering was understandable given the big market rally but Friday's was a surprise and the volume was off the charts.

Picked on June 19 at $15.45
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand
 

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