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Long Play Updates

Amer.Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - cls: 35.65 chg: +0.88 stop: 32.99

AEOS continues to power higher with Friday's 2.5% gain and breakout over the $35.00 level. On Thursday we suggested that readers not open new bullish plays if the market sours on the jobs report. Due to market weakness we remain cautious but AEOS relative strength looks buyable. Traders may still be reacting to Thursday's news with AEOS reporting June same-store sales up 11%. Readers can choose to go long here or look for a dip back toward the $34.50-35.00 region. Our target is the $38.25-38.50 range. The P&F chart is more optimistic with a $63.00 target. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on July 06 at $34.77
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 08/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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A.S.V.Inc. - ASVI - close: 22.10 change: -0.69 stop: 21.85*new*

Bulls need to be careful here. ASVI's upward momentum is fading. So far the stock is holding on to minor support at $22.00 with a little help from the 50-dma. The action this past week might just be a consolidation on the way up and the below average volume suggests that might be the case. However, our market bias is not positive. Conservative traders may just want to exit now. We're raising our stop loss to $21.85, which is under the 50-dma and Friday's low. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $23.50-24.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $21.20
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 463 thousand

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Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 48.25 chg: +0.95 stop: 44.95*new*

CELG continues to display relative strength. The stock added 2% on Friday with a bounce from its rising 10-dma. This is a new all-time closing high for the stock. We're going to raise our stop loss to $44.95. Right now our market bias is not positive so we hesitate to suggest new long positions but CELG's strength does look attractive. We do expect some resistance at $50.00 but our target is the $52.40-52.60 range. The Point & Figure chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $57 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $47.24
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Energy Transfer - ETP - close: 44.89 chg: -0.10 stop: 43.45*new*

Crude oil hit new highs this past week yet shares of ETP failed to participate in any oil-sector strength. Instead the stock has been stuck in a narrow, sideways consolidation - even the technical indicators have all turned sideways. Overall ETP is still inside its multi-month rising pattern but we're cautious. We're going to inch up our stop loss to $43.45 near its 50-dma, which should be technical support. We're not suggesting new plays at the moment but a bounce from the $44.00 level might be a tempting entry point. Currently our target is the $47.50 level. FYI: We do not have a confirmed earnings date for ETP. We do not want to hold over the company's earnings announcement but the problem is that we expect ETP will announce somewhere between July 10th (Monday) and the end of July. Due to this risk more conservative traders may want to exit early!

Picked on June 18 at $44.25
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 07/10/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 149 thousand

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Norfolk Southern - NSC - close: 51.55 chg: -0.71 stop: 49.99*new*

Railroad stocks have been pulling back the last couple of days. The technical indicators on NSC are starting to turn bearish and the close under its 10-dma, 100-dma and 50-dma is a bad sign. More conservative traders may want to think about an early exit here. We are going to raise our stop loss to $49.99. If you choose not to exit early but want to reduce your risk then consider putting your stop near $50.50 or the $51.00 level. We are not suggesting new bullish positions.

Picked on June 29 at $52.57
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 36.04 chg: -1.84 stop: 34.98

We warned readers on Thursday that Friday's session could be a rough one for SBUX. Investors did not respond well to news that June same-store sales came in +6%, which was at the low end of analysts' expectations. Shares gapped open lower after a pre-market downgrade. We do find it interesting that traders bought the dip at $35.10. We would not be surprised if SBUX bounced back toward the $37.00 level. At this time we're not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders might want to exit early or try and exit on any bounce near $37.00. Chart readers will note that the weekly chart has produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is usually interpreted as a bearish reversal.

Picked on June 29 at $37.05
Change since picked: - 1.01
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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USA Truck - USAK - close: 19.10 chg: -0.25 stop: 18.99

We are going to keep USAK on the newsletter as a bullish candidate for now. The market weakness kept the stock trading sideways in a narrow range. Volume on the session was pretty low. USAK still looks poised to move higher after building a base over the last month and with our trigger above resistance we feel relatively safe. We're suggesting a trigger to go long at $20.05. If triggered then our target will be the $22.00-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 140 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 15.72 chg: -0.29 stop: 16.26

JNPR continues to slowly drift lower under its trendline of resistance. Our market bias is flat to down so we expect JNPR's decline will begin to pick up speed. We would continue to consider new short positions with the stock under $16.00. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop north of the 50-dma (16.58). Our target is unchanged in the $14.10-14.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $8.50 target.

Picked on June 19 at $15.89
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.8 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.59 change: +0.16 stop: 48.75

There are no changes from our previous updates on MDT. The stock is still producing an oversold bounce and managed to close over its 10-dma on Friday. We expect that shares will test broken support and what should be new resistance at the $48.00 level soon. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. More conservative traders might want to do some profit taking. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 1.90
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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NitroMed - NTMD - close: 4.42 change: -0.26 stop: 5.01 *new*

NTMD lost another 5.5% on Friday putting the current decline at 12.8%. More conservative traders may want to do some profit taking. Fortunately, our market bias is flat to down so we expect NTMD to keep sinking. One concern we do have is the volume on Friday - it was very low. We're going to tighten our stop loss to $5.01. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop towards $4.90 and the 50-dma. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $4.10-4.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 5.07
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 07/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 710 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Asta Funding - ASFI - close: 35.89 change: -0.34 stop: 34.95

We are suggesting an early exit in ASFI. Shares tried to rally on Friday but failed under the 50-dma. Technical indicators are turning bearish and Friday's session was a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Now that our market bias if flat to down we'd rather jump out early.

Picked on June 23 at $36.01
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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Kenexa - KNXA - close: 30.46 change: -1.54 stop: 29.85

We are suggesting that traders abandon ship with KNXA. The stock was very weak on Friday with a 4.8% loss and a breakdown below its 10-dma and 50-dma. There is still a chance that KNXA will bounce from the $30.00 level but we don't want to risk it.

Picked on July 02 at $31.85
Change since picked: - 1.39
Earnings Date 08/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 178 thousand

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Lam Research - LRCX - close: 44.54 chg: -1.07 stop: 44.95

We have been stopped out of LRCX at $44.95. The SOX semiconductor sector index never broke out from its bearish channel. While LRCX was showing some relative strength a week ago the breakout over its 50-dma has failed.

Picked on June 30 at $47.25
Change since picked: - 2.71
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Verizon Comm. - VZ - close: 32.71 change: -0.31 stop: 32.45

We are suggesting an early exit in VZ. The trading on Friday looks bearish with a failed rally after the stock filled its gap down from Thursday. (Of course we don't see the gap down on this chart from stockcharts.com)

Picked on June 18 at $32.54
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.8 million

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Zoltek - ZOLT - close: 28.31 change: -0.97 stop: 27.49

ZOLT is moving further away from any bullish breakout over the $30.00 level. It was our plan to go long at $30.81, but ZOLT never hit our trigger so we're dropping the stock as a bullish candidate for now.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 810 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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