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Long Play Updates

Amer.Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - cls: 34.58 chg: -0.18 stop: 32.99

AEOS is actually showing some relative strength with an intraday bounce from its low near $33.70 this morning. However the stock was unable to breakout past its short-term trend of lower highs. We suspect the weakness this morning may have been a knee-jerk reaction to the Wal-Mart (WMT) downgrade. Unfortunately, for all of AEOS' efforts the upward momentum is slowing and that means the technical picture is decaying. Given the market's weakness and the rising violence in the Middle East we're not suggesting new bullish positions and conservative traders might just want to cut their losses now. Our target is the $38.25-38.50 range. The P&F chart is more optimistic with a $63.00 target. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on July 06 at $34.77
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 08/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 27.86 change: +0.42 stop: 30.25

BRCM bucked the trend in the markets and the semiconductors today. Shares added 1.5% after one analyst firm called the recent weakness in the stock a buying opportunity. We remain bearish but there is a risk of an oversold bounce toward what should be support near $30.00. We have been suggesting two targets - a conservative target at $25.05 and a more aggressive target at $22.75. Please note that BRCM is due to report earnings on Thursday, July 20th and we do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on July 09 at $27.75
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million

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IAC/Interactive Corp. - IACI - cls: 24.85 chg: -0.11 stop: 26.01*new*

For all of the market and sector weakness today we're not making a lot of progress in shares of IACI. The stock only lost 0.4% and is hugging support near $24.75. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $26.01. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. Readers should note that IACI has relatively high short interest at 4.8% of its 195 million-share float.

Picked on July 09 at $25.49
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 thousand

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 14.35 chg: -0.10 stop: 16.01

Prepare to exit. JNPR dipped to $14.18 this morning but managed an oversold bounce to $14.82 before rolling over again. We suspect that given the market weakness and the violence in the Middle East that we'll see more selling tomorrow. Our target is the $14.10-14.00 rang but more conservative traders may want to strongly consider exiting early right here!

Picked on June 19 at $15.89
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.8 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.50 change: -0.23 stop: 48.75

The oversold bounce in MDT is slowly starting to fade. We are not suggesting new shorts and more conservative traders might want to exit early here. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.90 chg: -0.18 stop: 31.25

MXIM did see an intraday rebound attempt but it failed under the $30 level. This looks like another entry point to initiate short positions. Our target is the $27.00-26.75 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $17 target. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: more aggressive traders may want to play with a wider stop (above the 50-dma) and aim for the $25.00 region.

Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 46.76 chg: -1.49 stop: 44.95

We are suggesting that readers exit early in CELG. The BTK biotech sector lost 1.7% today and we suspect there is more market weakness ahead. Shares of CELG lost just over 3% and closed under its 10-dma while the MACD on the daily chart just produced a new sell signal. Now the MACD has produced a couple of fake sell signals in the past several weeks but considering the market environment right now we're electing to exit early!

Picked on June 29 at $47.24
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Energy Transfer - ETP - close: 44.19 chg: -0.71 stop: 43.74

We are suggesting that readers exit early in ETP. After days of consolidating sideways the stock is taking a turn for the worse. Rising crude oil prices to record highs is not enough to inspire investors to buy oil stocks. There is still a chance that ETP will bounce near $44.00 and/or its rising 50-dma but we don't want to risk it.

Picked on June 18 at $44.25
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 07/10/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 149 thousand

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Newmarket Corp. - NEU - cls: 45.60 chg: -3.05 stop: 47.99

Sentiment in NEU has definitely changed. The stock gapped down at the open under what should have been support near $48.00 and shares closed with a 6.2% loss on below average volume. Fortunately we were still sitting on the sidelines. NEU never hit our trigger to go long the stock at $52.01 so we're dropping the stock as a bullish candidate.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 401 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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