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Long Play Updates

Amer.Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - cls: 34.77 chg: +0.61 stop: 32.99

The consolidation in AEOS may be ending. The stock out performed on Monday with a 1.7% bounce. While we are not excited about opening new bullish plays in this market environment we have to say that this looks like a new entry point to go long shares of AEOS. Our target is the $38.25-38.50 range. The P&F chart is more optimistic with a $63.00 target. We do not want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on July 06 at $34.77
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 27.37 change: -0.76 stop: 30.01*new*

It looks like the bounce in BRCM is failing at its 10-dma. This actually looks like a new bearish entry point to short BRCM but conservative traders might want to tighten their stop toward the $29 region. We're going to inch our stop loss down to $30.01. Please remember that BRCM is due to report earnings on July 20th after the market's close and we do not want to hold over the report. Our target is the $25.05-22.75 range.

Picked on July 09 at $27.75
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.21 change: -0.22 stop: 28.55

We do not see any changes from our new play description this past weekend. COH still looks like a short but patient traders may want to wait for a bounce back toward the $27.00 or $27.50 regions before considering an entry. We do want to offer one word of caution. The RLX retail index looks oversold and could be ready to bounce from significant support near the 420 level. Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 45.21 chg: -0.59 stop: 50.05

The homebuilders continued to sink on Monday. CTX lost 1.28% on above average volume and is testing round-number support at the $45.00 level. We are still somewhat concerned about a potential oversold bounce to "fill the gap" from Friday morning. Readers can wait for a rally into the $47.50-48.00 region before considering new bearish positions. We do expect some sort of bounce near the early June low (44.13) but our target is the $42.60-42.40 range. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Change since picked: - 2.16
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.50 change: +0.45 stop: 48.75

MDT reversed Friday's loss with today's 0.9% gain. The move was fueled by news that the FDA had okayed MDT's Guardian Real-Time (glucose) monitoring system. We are not suggesting new bearish positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $48.25 or $48.20 or consider doing some profit taking. We continue to target a drop into the $45.50-45.00 range and we don't want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.38 chg: -0.12 stop: 30.75

MXIM sank to new multi-year lows after an analyst firm downgraded the stock. Shares closed near their lows for the session, which is typically bearish for the next day's open. Our target is the $27.00-26.75 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. More aggressive traders may want to play with a wider stop (above the 50-dma) and aim for the $25.00 region.

Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Patterson-UTI Ener. - PTEN - close: 23.38 chg: -1.49 stop: 26.41

PTEN experienced some heavy selling today with a 5.99% loss following Friday's technical breakdown. PTEN got a push lower after an analyst firm downgraded the stock. Our target is the $22.65-22.45 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 14 at $24.90
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Volt Info Sci. - VOL - close: 45.00 chg: -0.75 stop: 46.51

Danger! Shares of VOL are even more volatile than we thought. The stock gapped down this morning to open at $45.01 and then sank to $42.10 before bouncing back. Volume was very strong on the move. We cannot find any specific news to account for the gap down this morning. At this time we would expect VOL to try and "fill the gap" with a rise into the $45.60-45.75 region. A failed rally under $46.00 could be used as a new entry point but remember this is an aggressive, high-risk play. Our target is the $40.10-40.00 range. FYI: Traders should be aware that MAN, a rival in this sector, is due to report earnings on July 19th. A big up or down surprise in MAN could have a big influence on VOL.

Picked on July 17 at $44.45
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 06/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand

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Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 32.99 chg: -0.20 stop: 34.55

We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description on WW. The stock continues to sink and Monday's session saw above average volume on the decline. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range, which is above potential support at its rising 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.

Picked on July 16 at $33.19
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 216 thousand

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XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 13.00 change: +0.11 stop: 14.25

We do not see any real changes from our weekend update on XMSR. The stock is still looking bearish but shares are clinging to old support at the $13.00 level. We'd probably look for a drop under Monday's low (12.80) as a new entry point for shorts. Aggressive traders might try catching a failed rally under $13.50 as a new entry point. Our target is the $10.25-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

IAC/Interactive Corp. - IACI - cls: 24.21 chg: -0.17 stop: 26.01

Target achieved. IACI under performed its peers in the Internet sector today. The INX Internet index closed in the green but IACI lost another 0.69%. The stock traded to an intraday low of $24.00 and our target was the $24.00-23.75 range.

Picked on July 09 at $25.49
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 thousand
 

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