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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Phazar Corp. - ANTP - close: 8.64 change: -0.04 stop: 9.27

ANTP is inching closer toward support and a potential bearish breakdown under the $8.65-8.55 range. Our trigger to short ANTP is at $8.49. We want to remind readers that this is an aggressive play. ANTP can be volatile and the most recent data puts short interest at over 10% of the 2.1 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of shorts and a very, very small float. To make this play even higher risk we cannot find the company's next earnings report. Last year they reported in August so it stands to reason that they might report again in early August. If triggered our target will be the $7.00-6.75 range.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 89 thousand

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Broadcom - BRCM - close: 27.40 change: +0.03 stop: 30.01

Time is almost up. BRCM is due to report earnings on July 20th after the market's close. We are planning to exit on Thursday afternoon at the close to avoid holding over the company's earnings report. Looking at today's action the stock hit a new relative low after an analyst firm downgraded the stock but the market's afternoon rally helped drag BRCM back into the green. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $25.05-22.75 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $29.00 in case the markets react positively to tomorrow's CPI report.

Picked on July 09 at $27.75
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 25.58 change: -0.63 stop: 28.55

The sell-off in COH continues. The stock lost another 2.4% on above average volume. Putting new pressure on COH was Target's sales warning that sparked a sell-off in the retail sector. COH is looking a bit oversold here so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. It is worth noting that the S&P Retail index (RLX) broke down under support at the 420 level today. Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 44.24 chg: -0.97 stop: 50.05

Shares of CTX almost hit our target today. Shares dipped to $42.98 before bouncing. Our target is the $42.60-42.40 range. The markets are worried about a slow down in the economy and the housing sector. Pouring fuel on this fire was news that the latest homebuilder survey put confidence at a 15-year low. The DJUSHB home construction index lost 1.9% today. Homebuilder RYL is due to report earnings tomorrow morning and DHI is expected to report earnings on Thursday morning. These reports could produce some volatility in the sector. We're still concerned about an oversold bounce in CTX so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Change since picked: - 3.13
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.28 change: -0.22 stop: 48.75

We don't see any changes from our previous updates on MDT. We are not suggesting new bearish positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $48.25 or $48.20 or consider doing some profit taking. We continue to target a drop into the $45.50-45.00 range and we don't want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 2.21
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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MTS Systems - MTSC - close: 34.60 change: +0.41 stop: 37.05

MTSC hit another new relative low before the afternoon market rally helped pull shares into the green. The stock is somewhat oversold. Yesterday we suggested that readers watch for a failed rally near $35 or $36 as a potential entry point. We're going to aim for a decline into the $31.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 26th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 4% of the stock's 18 million-share float.

Picked on July 17 at $34.19
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.23 chg: -0.15 stop: 30.18*new*

We need to urge new caution with MXIM. The stock hit an intraday low of $27.25, which was almost to our target in the $27.00-26.75 range. What makes us cautious is the big rebound. MXIM's daily chart shows a "hammer" type candlestick, which could be forecasting a bullish reversal. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We will adjust our stop loss to $30.18, just above the July 12th high.

Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Patterson-UTI Ener. - PTEN - cls: 23.49 chg: +0.11 stop: 26.01*new*

PTEN came close to our target today. The intraday low was $22.79. Our target is the $22.65-22.45 range. The afternoon rally may continue into tomorrow as shares of PTEN look short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We are adjusting our stop loss to $26.01. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 14 at $24.90
Change since picked: - 1.41
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Volt Info Sci. - VOL - close: 44.85 chg: -0.15 stop: 46.51

VOL traded as expected today. Shares rallied just high enough to "fill the gap" from Monday morning. The rest of the session was spent consolidating sideways. Investors are probably waiting on the CPI data tomorrow. This remains a very high-risk speculative play. Our target is the $40.10-40.00 range. Be advised that MAN's earnings report tomorrow morning could also affect shares of VOL.

Picked on July 17 at $44.45
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 06/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand

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Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 33.09 chg: +0.10 stop: 34.55

WW did not make any progress for us today. The stock churned sideways and spent most of the session in a 60-cent range. A failed rally under $33.50 (or even $34) could be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range, which is above potential support at its rising 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.

Picked on July 16 at $33.19
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 216 thousand

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XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 12.81 change: -0.19 stop: 14.25

XMSR has spent the last three days inside a 75-cent range. The overall trend and most of the technicals remain bearish so we're still suggesting shorts with XMSR under $13.00. More conservative traders may want to think about a tighter stop. We're leaving our stop at $14.25 for now. Our target is the $10.25-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Amer.Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - cls: 32.70 chg: -2.07 stop: 32.99

We have been stopped out of AEOS at $32.99. News that retail giant Target (TGT) had lowered its sales forecast caused some panic selling and AEOS was hit hard with a 5.9% loss. The S&P Retail index (RLX) broke down under significant support at the 420 level.

Picked on July 06 at $34.77
Change since picked: - 2.07
Earnings Date 08/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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