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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Phazar Corp. - ANTP - close: 9.03 change: +0.39 stop: 9.27

There are still no changes from our previous update on ANTP. The stock remains above support in the $8.65-8.55 region. Our trigger to short ANTP is at $8.49. We want to remind readers that this is an aggressive play. ANTP can be volatile and the most recent data puts short interest at over 10% of the 2.1 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of shorts and a very, very small float. To make this play even higher risk we cannot find the company's next earnings report. Last year they reported in August so it stands to reason that they might report again in early August. If triggered our target will be the $7.00-6.75 range.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 89 thousand

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Broadcom - BRCM - close: 26.99 change: -0.41 stop: 29.05*new*

We find it very interesting that shares of BRCM failed to participate in the very widespread market rally on Wednesday. BRCM lost 1.49% on above average volume. BRCM is due to report earnings on July 20th after the market's close. We are planning to exit on Thursday afternoon at the close to avoid holding over the company's earnings report. In an effort to reduce our risk we're adjusting the stop loss to $29.05. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $25.05-22.75 range.

Picked on July 09 at $27.75
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.79 change: +1.21 stop: 28.55

Both the retail sector and COH were looking oversold so when the relief rally finally hit today the stock really bounced. COH added 4.7% on above average volume but the stock remains under potential resistance at $27.00, its 10-dma near 27.40, and resistance near $27.50. Watch for the current bounce to roll over as the next entry point for new shorts. Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 45.73 chg: +1.49 stop: 50.05

The homebuilders were also oversold so the rebound during today's market bounce was pretty sharp in the homebuilding sector. The DJUSHB index added 4.6% and CTX rose 3.3%. Boosting the group was a relatively positive earnings report from RYL. Tomorrow will see DHI report earnings. We're not suggesting new plays at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $48.50-48.00 region. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Change since picked: - 1.64
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.28 change: -0.22 stop: 48.51*new*

MDT managed to add 1.1% but volume came in light. More importantly the stock failed to close over resistance at the $48.00 level in spite of the market's strength. We're adjusting our stop loss to $48.51. We continue to target a drop into the $45.50-45.00 range and we don't want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 2.21
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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MTS Systems - MTSC - close: 35.32 change: +0.72 stop: 37.05

MTSC spiked higher this morning but the stock pared its gains to close back above the $35.00 level. It may be significant that volume came in below average. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $36.50 or today's high (36.25). We're going to aim for a decline into the $31.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 26th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 4% of the stock's 18 million-share float.

Picked on July 17 at $34.19
Change since picked: + 1.13
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 29.21 chg: +0.98 stop: 30.18

MXIM added 3.4% on today's rally and closed just above its simple 10-dma. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. More conservative types may want to tighten their stops toward $30.00 or just exit early to avoid any losses.

Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Patterson-UTI Ener. - PTEN - cls: 24.07 chg: +0.58 stop: 26.01

PTEN was looking a bit oversold and today's oversold bounce pushed shares back above $24.00 with a 2.4% gain. The overall pattern remains bearish but the bounce may not be over yet. Our target is the $22.65-22.45 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 14 at $24.90
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 33.64 chg: +0.55 stop: 34.55

WW's reaction to the market rally today was a 1.6% gain on above average volume to close over technical resistance at the 100-dma. We would wait and watch to see if the bounce fails under the $34.00 level and its 10-dma before considering new short positions. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range, which is above potential support at its rising 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.

Picked on July 16 at $33.19
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 216 thousand

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XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 12.51 change: -0.30 stop: 14.25

The early strength in XMSR failed at $13.20 and the stock closed near its recent lows. Today's failure to participate in the market rally is a big sign of relative weakness and good news for the bears. We're lowering our stop loss to $14.01. Our target is the $10.25-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Volt Info Sci. - VOL - close: 47.43 chg: +2.58 stop: 46.51

We have been stopped out of VOL at $46.51. The morning pop looks like short covering and the move over VOL's short-term trendline of lower highs is bullish. This was an aggressive, high-risk play.

Picked on July 17 at $44.45
Change since picked: + 2.98
Earnings Date 06/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand
 

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