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Long Play Updates

Consolidated Graphics - CGX - cls: 51.40 chg: -1.03 stop: 50.99

CGX did spike to a new two-month high on Thursday morning but it was not enough to hit our trigger to buy the stock at $53.01. Today's bearish failed rally doesn't look good and the stock looks headed for the $51 level and its 50-dma. We're keeping the play active for now. Our trigger at $53.01 is still good. If triggered our target is the $57.00-57.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

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NCI Bldg Sys. - NCS - cls: 50.18 change: -1.32 stop: 49.75

NCS failed to see any follow through on yesterday's rebound. The stock did not even try to breakout over its 200-dma and the $52.00 level this morning. We're going to keep NCS as a bullish candidate for now but if the stock closes under $50 we'll drop it. Currently our trigger to go long is at $52.25. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $52.50. We do expect some resistance near $55.00 and its 50-dma but we're going to aim for the $58.00-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late August earnings report.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 370 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Phazar Corp. - ANTP - close: 8.73 change: -0.30 stop: 9.27

ANTP has produced another lower high with this morning's failed rally. If there is any downward follow through tomorrow the stock could break support. Our trigger to short ANTP is at $8.49. We want to remind readers that this is an aggressive play. ANTP can be volatile and the most recent data puts short interest at over 10% of the 2.1 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of shorts and a very, very small float. To make this play even higher risk we cannot find the company's next earnings report. Last year they reported in August so it stands to reason that they might report again in early August. If triggered our target will be the $7.00-6.75 range.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 89 thousand

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Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.57 change: -0.22 stop: 28.01*new*

COH spiked higher this morning but momentum faded and the stock has produced a bearish failed rally at its descending 10-dma. This looks like a new entry point to short COH. Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $28.01. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 44.20 chg: -1.53 stop: 48.05 *new*

Rival homebuilder DHI reported earnings today and the company issued some very bearish comments about the state and future of the industry. This pushed the DJUSHB home construction index to a 3.8% decline. Shares of CTX fell 3.3%. Currently we are planning to close this play on Monday afternoon to avoid holding over CTX's earnings report after the market's close on July 24th. That's assuming CTX doesn't hit our $42.60-42.40 target first. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $48.05.

Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Change since picked: - 3.17
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.95 change: +0.13 stop: 48.51

We are losing patience with MDT. If the stock doesn't show some weakness tomorrow we'll probably drop the stock from the play list. We're not suggesting new positions. We continue to target a drop into the $45.50-45.00 range and we don't want to hold over the August earnings report.

Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Change since picked: - 2.08
Earnings Date 08/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.8 million

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MTS Systems - MTSC - close: 34.13 change: -1.19 stop: 36.55*new*

The action in MTSC was favorable. The stock produced a bearish failed rally under its descending 10-dma this morning and the stock erased all of its gains from Wednesday. Volume was light, which is discouraging, but we see today's reversal as a new entry point to short the stock. We're moving our stop loss to $36.55. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 26th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 4% of the stock's 18 million-share float.

Picked on July 17 at $34.19
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.20 chg: -1.01 stop: 30.18

MXIM completely erased yesterday's gains with today's 3.45% decline. This looks like a new entry point to short MXIM but bear in mind that our target is the $27.00-26.75 range. If you open positions now you may want to aim lower.

Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 08/04/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - cls: 22.91 chg: -1.16 stop: 25.01 *new*

PTEN has sharply reversed the recent bounce with today's 4.8% decline. The stock looks poised to hit our target in the $22.65-22.45 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower but be aware that we see potential support near $21.50. Our new stop loss is at $25.01. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 14 at $24.90
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 32.80 chg: -0.84 stop: 34.55

The bearish reversal in WW today looks like a new entry point to short the stock. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range, which is above potential support at its rising 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.

Picked on July 16 at $33.19
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 216 thousand

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XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 11.92 change: -0.59 stop: 14.01

Not one but two analyst firms downgraded shares of XMSR today. That explains the gap down this morning in the stock price. XMSR did close off its lows of the session but ended the day with a 4.7% loss on above average volume. Our target is the $10.25-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 26.35 change: -0.64 stop: 29.05

Time is up. It was our plan to exit today near the closing bell to avoid holding over BRCM's earnings report. This time it would have been more profitable to hold the play since investors are selling the earnings news. BRCM is currently trading near $24.20 in after hours. Yet it's important to realize that the reaction could have been positive and BRCM could have spiked higher on the news. We find there are too many unknown variables to consider to make it worth while holding over an earnings announcement.

Picked on July 09 at $27.75
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million
 

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