Long Play Updates
Short Play Updates
Alex. & Baldwin - ALEX - cls: 40.15 chg: -0.10 stop: 41.75
Our bearish play in ALEX is now open but we are suggesting caution! We added ALEX to the newsletter on Thursday night with a suggested trigger to open shorts at $39.95. The stock did breakdown under support at $40.00 on Friday morning but quickly rebounded and closed back above the $40 level. The move looks like a short-term bullish reversal. We would watch for a bounce back toward the $41.00 level or its simple 10-dma near 41.75. Both of these levels should be short-term overhead resistance and a failed rally near either could be used as a new entry point although more conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $40 again before considering new positions. Our short-term target is the $37.50-35.00 range. We're calling it short-term because we do not want to hold over the July 28th earnings report (an unconfirmed date). FYI: The latest (June) data put short interest at 6.5% of the 43 million-share float. The amount of short interest seems a little high.
Picked on July 21 at $39.95
Phazar Corp. - ANTP - close: 8.68 change: -0.05 stop: 9.27
It was close but no cigar! ANTP dipped to $8.50 on Friday and tested that level for a while before producing a minor bounce on Friday afternoon. The move on Friday actually produced a new Point & Figure chart sell-signal. It is our suggested strategy to short the stock with a trigger at $8.49. Thus we remain on the sidelines as a spectator. However, if the major U.S. averages continue to sink on Monday then odds are good that ANTP may finally breakdown to new, significant lows. If triggered our target will be the $7.00-6.75 range. We want to remind readers that this is an aggressive play. ANTP can be volatile and the most recent data puts short interest at over 10% of the 2.1 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of shorts and a very, very small float. To make this play even higher risk we cannot find the company's next earnings report. Last year they reported in August so it stands to reason that they might report again in early August.
on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.31 change: -0.26 stop: 28.01
There has been a lot of pressure on retailers. June retail sales came in below estimates. Target (TGT) recently lowered its sales forecast. Investors are worried that high gasoline prices are putting pressure on the consumer and a falling house market definitely makes people fell less wealthy. That's why luxury goods maker COH has been sinking. The stock produced a bearish failed rally under its 10-dma on Thursday and it looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our only complaint is that volume has been below average for the last two days straight. Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report so that gives us six trading days left.
Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 44.61 chg: +0.41 stop: 46.25*new*
Time is just about up for our bearish play in CTX. The company is due to report earnings on Monday, July 24th after the closing bell. While earnings report from the homebuilders have not been very inspiring we still don't want to hold over CTX's report. It is our plan to exit on Monday near the closing bell. In an effort to reduce our risk we're lowering the stop loss to $46.25. FYI: Traders should note that both the DJUSHB index and CTX appeared to produce a very short-term (bullish) double-bottom pattern in the past four days.
Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 13.63 change: -0.43 stop: 15.01
JNPR is a new bearish candidate from our Thursday night newsletter. The stock lost another 3% on Friday and hit our suggested trigger to open shorts at $13.75 so the play is now open. We do not see any changes from our play description from Thursday so we're reposting it here:
We are going to play JNPR again. The company's recent earnings report did not inspire any buying interest. What the report did spark were a few analyst downgrades. Volume over the last couple of sessions has been pretty strong and Thursday's trading saw JNPR produce a bearish failed rally near its falling 10-dma. We are going to suggest a trigger to short JNPR at $13.75, which is under the July 18th low. If triggered our target is the $12.00-10.00 range. Conservative traders can exit near $12 with us and more aggressive traders can aim lower. Speaking of conservative traders you might want to put your stop just above Thursday's high (14.76). The P&F chart is still very bearish with an $8.50 target. FYI: The latest (June) data put short interest at 5.7% of the float.
Picked on July 21 at $13.75
MTS Systems - MTSC - close: 33.04 change: -1.09 stop: 36.05*new*
The Wednesday-Thursday failed rally from last week under its descending 10-dma has produced a breakdown to new eight-month lows. We're not suggesting new plays because we're running low on time. The company is due to report earnings on July 26th after the market's closing bell. We're planning to exit on Wednesday at the close to avoid holding over the report. Please note that the stop loss has been adjusted to $36.05. Our target is the $31.00 mark. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 4% of the stock's 18 million-share float.
on July 17 at $34.19
Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 27.39 chg: -0.81 stop: 30.01*new*
Continued weakness in the semiconductor sector has MXIM nearing our target in the $27.00-26.75 range. We're not suggesting new shorts at this time. Please note our stop loss has been adjusted to $30.01. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $13 target so more aggressive traders may want to aim lower than our $27 target.
Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 29.76 change: -0.45 stop: 31.65
Our new bearish play in TEVA is now open. The stock broke down under support at the $30.00 level and under the June low to hit our trigger at $29.79. We do not see any changes from our play description from Thursday so we're reposting it here:
TEVA got FDA approval on a new arthritis drug (Meloxicam) Thursday but the news failed to stop the stock from producing a big bearish engulfing candlestick pattern today. The stock has been weak for several weeks but right now TEVA is poised to breakdown under significant support at the $30.00 level. Thursday's candlestick pattern is normally viewed as a bearish reversal. We want to see some confirmation so we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $29.79, which is under the late June low. If triggered we're suggesting two targets. Our conservative target is the $27.00 level. Our aggressive target is the $25.50 level. We do not have a lot of time since we don't want to hold over the company's earnings report in early August. The fact that TEVA is headquartered in Israel probably doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in buyers considering the current Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. FYI: The number of shares short as a percentage of the float appears to be less than 1% but this is June data.
Picked on July 21 at $29.79
Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 32.26 chg: -0.54 stop: 34.01*new*
Thursday's failed rally near the falling 10-dma lead to a 1.6% decline on Friday. We are going to adjust the stop loss to $34.01. We don't see any other changes from our previous updates on WW. The trend remains bearish and the next level of support looks like the simple 200-dma near $31.00. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.
Picked on July 16 at $33.19
XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 11.20 change: -0.72 stop: 13.51*new*
The sell-off in XMSR is picking up speed. The stock lost another 6% on Friday with volume coming in above average. Since we added XMSR to the play list the stock has fallen more than 13.5%. More conservative traders may want to lock in some profits right here. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $13.51. Please note that we're also adjusting our target to the $10.50-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Closed Long Plays
Consolidated Graphics - CGX - cls: 50.19 chg: -1.21 stop: 50.99
The sell-off continues in CGX and the stock has broken down from its three-week trading range. While shares still have potential round-number support at $50 and potential technical support at the 200-dma the stock has broken under its 50-dma and the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. It was our plan to go long the stock at $53.01 but CGX never hit our trigger so we're dropping the stock as a bullish candidate.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
NCI Bldg Sys. - NCS - cls: 49.09 change: -1.09 stop: 49.75
The bullish breakout over the $52.00 level, its 200-dma and its trend of lower highs never materialized. Instead NCS has reversed lower and on above average volume. There is a chance that NCS could bounce from support near $48.00 but we think traders might want to watch for a breakdown under $48.00 as a new entry point for shorts! It was our suggested plan to open longs with a trigger at $52.25 but we are now dropping NCS as a bullish candidate.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Closed Short Plays
Medtronic - MDT - close: 47.81 change: -0.14 stop: 48.51
This is pretty simple. MDT's downward momentum has stalled and we're suggesting that readers exit early before an oversold bounce erases any remain "gains".
Picked on June 21 at $49.49
Patterson-UTI - PTEN - cls: 22.55 chg: -0.36 stop: 25.01
Target achieved. As expected shares of PTEN continued to slide on Friday and shares hit our target in the $22.65-22.45 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower but be aware that we see potential support near $21.50.
Picked on July 14 at $24.90