Long Play Updates
Short Play Updates
Phazar Corp. - ANTP - close: 8.86 change: +0.18 stop: 9.27
There is no change from our previous updates on ANTP. We remain on the sidelines. Our trigger to short the stock is at $8.49. If triggered our target will be the $7.00-6.75 range. We want to remind readers that this is an aggressive play. ANTP can be volatile and the most recent data puts short interest at over 10% of the 2.1 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of shorts and a very, very small float. To make this play even higher risk we cannot find the company's next earnings report. Last year they reported in August so it stands to reason that they might report again in early August.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Cascade - CAE - close: 37.04 change: +1.35 stop: 36.76
The market bounce on Monday fueled a big rebound in CAE (+3.7%) but volume came in pretty low suggesting little or no confidence behind today's move. We are still on the sidelines. Our plan is to use a trigger at $34.90 to catch any breakdown under support in the $35 region. If triggered our target is the $31.50-31.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is more bearish with a $22.00 target. We do not want to hold over its earnings report in September.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 27.23 change: +0.92 stop: 28.01
The retailers have been pretty weak lately and today's rally sparked quite a bit of short covering and probably some bargain shopping. The rebound in COH today was stronger than we would have expected. The close over $27.00 is not a good sign. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops or exiting early to limit losses. The overall pattern for COH is bearish but short-term the stock could bounce toward its 50-dma (near 28.75). Our target for COH is the $22.75-22.25 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report so that gives us six trading days left.
Picked on July 16 at $26.43
Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 13.77 change: +0.14 stop: 15.01
If you're feeling optimistic then the good news today is that JNPR only added 1%. The stock under performed the wider market and remains under broken support and what should be overhead resistance at the $14.00 level. Normally we would suggest that readers consider short positions with JNPR under $14.00 but right now we'd wait to see if the market builds on today's rally first before initiating new plays. Our target is the $12.00-10.00 range. Conservative traders can exit near $12 with us and more aggressive traders can aim lower. Speaking of conservative traders you might want to put your stop just above Thursday's high (14.76). The P&F chart is still very bearish with an $8.50 target.
Picked on July 21 at $13.75
MTS Systems - MTSC - close: 34.46 change: +1.42 stop: 35.26*new*
The oversold bounce in MTSC today was pretty sharp with the stock adding 4.29%. Volume was low and that suggest a lack of confidence behind the move but it's still a big bounce. Currently it is our plan to exit on Wednesday afternoon near the close to avoid holding over the company's earnings report. That's still the plan but we're going to tighten our stop loss to reduce our risk. The 10-dma near $35.00-35.05 should be short-term overhead resistance. We're going to lower our stop loss to $35.26.
Picked on July 17 at $34.19
Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.10 chg: +0.71 stop: 30.01
The NASDAQ composite produced a pretty strong bounce today and the semiconductor sector followed with a 1.8% gain. Shares of MXIM out performed the SOX and the NASDAQ with a 2.59% gain. More conservative traders may want to exit now to try and lock in a profit - or consider tightening their stops toward $29.25 to reduce their risk. The long-term trend for MXIM remains bearish but short-term the stock could bounce toward the $30 region.
Picked on July 09 at $29.75
Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 30.49 change: +0.73 stop: 31.65
Danger! TEVA added 2.4% on above average volume and produced an intraday bullish reversal today. The big bounce in the markets helped fuel the move but news that Condoleeza Rice is in Lebanon may also spur some buying for Israel-based companies in hopes the fighting may end sooner than expected. The move over $30.00 is bad news for us and more conservative traders may want to strongly consider exiting now to minimize any losses. We're not suggesting new plays.
Picked on July 21 at $29.79
Meridian Biosci. - VIVO - close: 21.12 chg: +0.18 stop: 23.05
VIVO tried to bounce this morning but it failed under the $22.00 level. This sort of failed rally looks like a new entry point for shorts but right now we'd hesitate to open new bearish plays until we see if the markets produce any sort of follow through on Monday's rally. Our target is the $18.15-18.00 range since the $18.00 level was support last year.
Picked on July 23 at $20.94
Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 32.90 chg: +0.64 stop: 34.01
Monday's market rally inspired WW to a 1.98% gain. If the rally continues we'd look for WW to encounter some resistance at its descending 10-dma near $33.30. We're not suggesting new plays at the moment. Our target is the $31.10-31.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. FYI: the most recent data put short interest at 6.9% of WW's 41 million-share float.
Picked on July 16 at $33.19
XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 11.20 change: -0.00 stop: 13.51
XMSR displayed relative weakness today. The stock's failure to participate in the market's rally on Monday is definitely bearish and good news for our short play. Our target is the $10.50-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward the $13.00 level. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on July 14 at $12.95
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
Alex. & Baldwin - ALEX - cls: 41.14 chg: +0.99 stop: 41.75
We are cutting our losses in ALEX. We warned readers over the weekend that Friday's session looked like an intraday bullish reversal. Today's 2.4% rally, while fueled on low volume, still seems to confirm the rebound. Actually the three-day candlestick pattern also looks like a bullish reversal pattern. The overall, larger trend in ALEX is still bearish but unless you're willing to endure a bounce back toward the $42.50 (that means putting your stop above $42.50) we're suggesting traders exit now.
Picked on July 21 at $39.95
Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 47.06 chg: -2.45 stop: 46.25
The market rally today sparked a big bounce in the homebuilders. It was probably shorts rushing to lock in profits that helped push the DJUSHB index to a 4.1% gain. Shares of CTX added 5.49% and erased a lot of our potential gains with today's move. It was our plan to exit at the closing bell today to avoid holding over the company's earnings report but we were stopped out at $46.25 on the rebound this morning. The company's earnings report was positive but management guided lower for the next quarter. CTX was trading near $46 in after hours.
Picked on July 13 at $47.37
USEC - USU - close: 11.26 change: +0.42 stop: 11.26
We've been stopped out of USU. We tried to limit our risk with a relatively tight stop loss and it looks like the rally in the markets today was just too strong. Our stop was at $11.26.
Picked on July 23 at $10.84