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Long Play Updates

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Short Play Updates

Smith A O Corp. - AOS - close: 39.64 chg: -0.37 stop: 42.26

Volume came in pretty low on Friday but shares of AOS lost another 0.9% to close under the $40 level again. We are suggesting shorts given the stock's breakdown from its three-month sideways consolidation pattern and its drop under the 200-dma. The Point & Figure chart is also bearish with a spread triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $34 target. More conservative types may want to wait for a decline under Friday's (and Thursday's) low of $39.50. Our trigger to open shorts was at $39.75 so the play is now open. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $39.75
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 288 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 21.07 chg: +0.08 stop: 22.15 *new*

The MACD on DELL's daily chart is inching closer to a new sell signal. That's the good news. The bad news is that we're running low on time. DELL is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, August 17th. We do not want to hold over the announcement so we plan to exit on Thursday at the closing bell. Currently, given the bearish trend of lower highs and that fact that DELL has already warned for the quarter we don't see any reason for investors to buy DELL ahead of the report unless they think the bad news has already been priced into the stock. We're adjusting our stop loss to $22.15. Our target is the $19.25.00-19.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $16 target.

Picked on August 09 at $21.14
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.1 million

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Eagle Materials - EXP - close: 35.37 chg: -0.02 stop: 39.26

EXP's volume dried up on Friday leaving the stock to churn sideways in an 82-cent range under what looks like short-term resistance at the $36.00 level. Most of the technical indicators still look bearish and we continue to suggest shorts with the stock under $36.00. However, more patient traders may want to wait for another bounce and failed rally under the 10-dma or 21-dma directly overhead before initiating new positions. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is projecting a $26 target.

Picked on August 08 at $36.18
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 58.44 chg: +0.38 stop: 60.26 *new*

We warned readers on Thursday to look for a potential bounce back toward technical resistance at its 10-dma and 200-dma near $59. That's what FMC delivered on Friday. The good news is that the action on Friday looks like a failed rally although we'd probably wait for another decline under $58.00 before considering new short positions. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $60.26. Our target is the $52.00-51.75 range since the $51.75 area was support last winter. The Point & Figure chart points to a $46 target.

Picked on August 08 at $57.20
Change since picked: + 1.24
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 298 thousand

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 12.20 chg: -0.70 stop: 13.75*new*

JNPR is another casualty of the option backdating scandal. The stock spiked lower on Friday and closed with a 5.4% decline on strong volume. The move was fueled by news that the company may have to restate earnings to account for option discrepancies. Plus, the company could receive a delisting notice from the NASDAQ for not filing its 10-Q yet. Our target has been the $12.00-10.00 range but more conservative traders may want to strongly consider exiting early right here. We will be closing the play if JNPR trades at or below $12.00. We're not suggesting new positions. FYI: We're adjusting the stop loss to breakeven at $13.75.

Picked on July 21 at $13.75
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 47.21 chg: -0.73 stop: 50.05

The post-earnings sell-off continues in shares of LAMR. The stock spiked above $52.00 and its 50-dma on its earnings news and then quickly reversed lower. Now shares are breaking down under significant support at the $48.00 level on both its daily chart and on its P&F chart. Speaking of the P&F chart the bearish price target is at $40.00. We are suggesting shorts with LAMR under $48.00. Our target is the $45.15-45.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $47.90
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 51.90 chg: -1.43 stop: 55.21*new*

So far so good. Shares of STLD continue to sink after breaking down under short-term support at the $54.00 level. If investors are beginning to worry about the U.S. and global economy slowing down then steel stocks like STLD could struggle to see any upward momentum. We believe shares are headed for the rising 200-dma. Our target is the $50.00-49.00 range. The P&F chart shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $42 target. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $55.21, which is just above the 10-dma.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 2.05
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Meridian Biosci. - VIVO - cls: 19.50 chg: -0.14 stop: 21.21 *new*

VIVO continues to look vulnerable with the breakdown under the $20.00 level and strong volume behind the decline. We are suggesting new shorts with VIVO under $20.00 and we're adjusting the stop loss to $21.21, which is just above the August high. Our target is the $18.15-18.00 range since the $18.00 level was support last year. The P&F chart points to a $16 target. FYI: The BTK biotech index is trading near the bottom of its trading range and could be poised to bounce. Patient traders may want to wait for VIVO to trade back toward $20 before considering new shorts.

Picked on July 23 at $20.94
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 175 thousand
 

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